Cement stocks experienced significant gains today as reports surfaced indicating that major cement companies have initiated price hikes averaging between Rs 10-15 per bag across the country.
Key players such as UltraTech Cement, Shree Cements, Ambuja Cements, ACC, and Dalmia Bharat traded with gains ranging between one to three percent on the intra-day trade on Wednesday April 3, 2024.
According to industry sources, cement companies in various regions have announced varying price increases, ranging from Rs 10-15 per bag in the north to a substantial Rs 40 per bag in the central and eastern regions.
However, dealers speculate that the price hikes are likely to stabilize at Rs 10-20 per bag in the near future. In the western region, companies have announced a Rs 20 per bag increase.
Anand Rathi Research favors Shree Cement and UltraTech Cement among large caps, while Prabhudas Lilladher identifies Ultratech, Ramco, and Sagar Cement as major beneficiaries in the Southern region due to price hikes.
In the Northern region, JK Cement, Shree Cement, JKLC, and Ambuja are favored, and in the Western region, Ambuja, Birla Corp, and UltraTech are highlighted.
Analysts foresee cement volumes to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5-6.5% for FY25 and FY26, constrained by significant capacity additions and moderation in growth.
They project pan India average capacity utilization levels to remain below 70% over the medium term due to higher capacity additions, particularly by large players.
The price hikes observed in the initial quarter of FY24 were short-lived, as competitive pressures and cost adjustments led to a reversal by the quarter’s end. Cement prices continued to decline throughout Q4FY24 and are anticipated to maintain a subdued trajectory.
Analysts predict a further 2-3% decrease in cement prices for FY25, citing the interplay of demand-supply dynamics and heightened competition in the market.
Moreover, analysts anticipate a moderation in demand growth over the medium term, following a recalibration from a high baseline. Despite a surge in cement volume growth to 8-9% in FY24 driven by pre-election activities and focus on housing and capital expenditure, a slowdown in volume growth has been observed since the latter half of the current fiscal year, with this trend expected to persist.
(With Inputs)