The Indian market rebounded in October 2025 after two months of correction, with the Nifty 50 rising over 1,100 points or 4.5 per cent. Mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 5.8 per cent and 3.7 per cent, respectively.
Axis Securities said the upbeat was supported by stronger corporate results, optimism on tariff discussions between India and the US, and stable domestic liquidity.
The brokerage expects GDP growth of 6.8 per cent in FY26, higher than 6.5 per cent earlier, aided by the Reserve Bank of India’s rate cuts and fiscal spending. Earnings growth is projected to improve in the second half of FY26 as consumption and rate-sensitive sectors gain traction.
Valuations have normalised to fair levels, with the Nifty trading at 20.9 times one-year forward earnings. Axis maintained its March 2026 Nifty target at 25,500, valuing it at 20 times FY27 earnings. The firm continues to prefer its Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP) theme.
Axis Securities large-cap stock picks
Axis Securities on Bajaj Finance: ‘Over Weight’
Axis Securities said Bajaj Finance continues to maintain strong profitability with a clear focus on asset quality and balanced growth. The company is reducing its dependence on deposits and tapping low-cost bank borrowings and bonds to lower funding costs to 7.6–7.65 per cent.
Net interest margins are expected to stay in the 8.9–9 per cent range for FY26–FY28. Credit costs should stabilise between 1.9–2 per cent, supported by tighter control in high-risk segments and better diversification across product lines.
Axis Securities gave the target price for Bajaj Finance at Rs 1,160, indicating an 11 per cent upside.
Axis Securities on State Bank of India: ‘Over Weight’
Axis said SBI remains a preferred large-cap holding due to steady credit growth, a strong CASA base and improving return ratios. Asset quality is firm, with the gross NPA ratio on a declining trend.
Margins have held up due to low-cost deposits and higher treasury income. Return on equity is expected to remain around 15 per cent, backed by healthy capital buffers.
Axis Securities set the target price for State Bank of India at Rs 1,055, indicating a 13 per cent upside.
Axis Securities on HDFC Bank: ‘Over Weight’
Axis said HDFC Bank’s growth remains intact with a healthy CASA ratio of 38 per cent and stable funding mix. The bank is likely to benefit from rate transmission, which will lift margins through FY26.
The brokerage expects profitability to improve as merger integration costs moderate. Asset quality remains sound with contained credit costs.
Axis Securities set the target price for HDFC Bank at Rs 1,170, indicating a 19 per cent upside.
Axis Securities on Bharti Airtel: ‘Over Weight’
Axis said Bharti Airtel stands to benefit from rising ARPU, stable pricing and higher data usage. The company continues to expand its 5G rollout while managing debt efficiently.
The Africa business remains steady, and India operations lead the earnings recovery. Axis projects continued cash flow improvement as ARPU rises by Rs 10–12 over the next year.
Axis Securities set the target price for Bharti Airtel at Rs 2,300, indicating a 12 per cent upside.
Axis Securities on Shriram Finance: ‘Over Weight’
Axis said Shriram Finance’s diversified AUM, solid margins and cautious underwriting keep it on track for consistent earnings. Commercial vehicle and MSME lending remain growth engines.
Net interest margins should stay near 8.5 per cent, with stage-3 assets contained below 6 per cent. Axis expects mid-teen loan growth in FY26, aided by stable funding costs.
Axis Securities set the target price for Shriram Finance at Rs 860, indicating a 15 per cent upside.
Axis Securities on Avenue Supermarts (DMart): ‘Over Weight’
Axis said DMart continues to post strong growth with expanding store footprint and improving consumption. Private-label sales are helping margin improvement, while cost controls remain effective.
Same-store sales growth and logistics efficiencies are expected to drive 20 per cent annual earnings growth over FY26–FY27.
Axis Securities has set the target price for Avenue Supermarts at Rs 4,960, indicating a 19 per cent upside.
Axis Securities on Max Healthcare Institute: ‘Over Weight’
Axis said Max Healthcare benefits from higher occupancy, new capacity additions and operational efficiencies. It expects 15 per cent annual revenue growth over the next two years with margins above 25 per cent.
Strong cash flows and expansion into new cities support steady performance.
Axis Securities set the target price for Max Healthcare Institute at Rs 1,450, indicating a 26 per cent upside.
Axis Securities mid-cap stock picks
Axis Securities on Hero MotoCorp: ‘Over Weight’
Axis said Hero MotoCorp will gain from rural recovery, improved affordability and stable input costs. Motorcycle demand is rising, and new product launches, including EVs under the Vida brand, will widen its market share.
Earnings are expected to grow steadily through FY26, supported by cost discipline and higher volumes.
Axis Securities set the target price for Hero MotoCorp at Rs 6,245, indicating a 13 per cent upside.
Axis Securities on Prestige Estates Projects: ‘Over Weight’
Axis said Prestige Estates continues to deliver strong pre-sales growth, backed by robust demand in Bengaluru and Mumbai. The company’s disciplined balance sheet and cash generation provide financial flexibility for new launches.
Axis expects the housing upcycle to sustain, supporting revenue visibility in FY26–FY27.
Axis Securities set the target price for Prestige Estates Projects at Rs 2,000, indicating a 15 per cent upside.
Axis Securities on APL Apollo Tubes: ‘Over Weight’
Axis said APL Apollo will benefit from infrastructure-led demand and rising use of structural steel in construction. Product innovation, cost control and steady utilisation support healthy margins.
The brokerage sees double-digit volume growth driven by India’s housing and industrial expansion.
Axis Securities set the target price for APL Apollo Tubes at Rs 2,100, indicating a 17 per cent upside.
Axis Securities small-cap stock picks
Axis Securities on Mahanagar Gas: ‘Over Weight’
Axis said Mahanagar Gas has maintained stable margins due to moderating input prices. Expansion across Thane, Raigad and Navi Mumbai is boosting volumes, while strong cash flows support steady dividends.
The company’s defensive profile and city gas leadership make it a stable long-term pick.
Axis Securities set the target price for Mahanagar Gas at Rs 1,540, indicating a 21 per cent upside.
Axis Securities on Inox Wind: ‘Over Weight’
Inox Wind replaced Lupin in the November list. Axis said the company’s turnaround plan, improved cash flow and better execution have strengthened its position in renewable energy.
Strong order inflows and operational improvements are expected to drive profitability in FY26.
Axis Securities set the target price for Inox Wind at Rs 190, indicating a 22 per cent upside.
Axis Securities on Kirloskar Brothers: ‘Over Weight’
Axis said Kirloskar Brothers’ healthy order book, export growth and strong execution keep earnings on track. Infrastructure demand from irrigation and water management projects supports visibility.
Diversification into new engineering areas adds to stability.
Axis Securities set the target price for Kirloskar Brothers at Rs 2,330, indicating a 24 per cent upside.
Axis Securities on Sansera Engineering: ‘Over Weight’
Axis said Sansera Engineering’s performance is improving with better demand in two-wheelers and passenger vehicles. Precision components and export orders are supporting margin expansion.
Axis expects operating leverage to aid profitability in FY26.
Axis Securities set the target price for Sansera Engineering at Rs 1,720, indicating a 14 per cent upside.
Axis Securities on Kalpataru Projects International: ‘Over Weight’
Axis said Kalpataru Projects benefits from a strong order pipeline in power transmission and infrastructure. Execution has improved, margins are steady and international diversification adds stability.
The company is expected to report double-digit revenue growth in FY26. Axis Securities set the target price for Kalpataru Projects International at Rs 1,475, indicating a 17 per cent upside.
Risks and outlook
The brokerage noted that key risks included uncertainty around US-India tariff talks, softness in rural demand, and global market volatility that may weigh on short-term sentiment.
The brokerage also noted that persistent FII outflows and slower-than-expected earnings recovery could limit upside in the near term.
However, domestic liquidity remains firm, with Rs 29,000 crore SIP inflows in September 2025, providing a strong buffer against external volatility. The brokerage advised investors to hold 10–15 per cent liquidity for buying opportunities on dips and focus on high-quality stocks with visible earnings.