The Mumbai mayoral elections have become a massive talking point this week after the ruling Mahayuti swept civic body polls. Opposition leaders have hinted at the possibility of a major upset — with the Shiv Sena (UBT) insisting that circumstances could change at any moment. A political war of words continued even as members of the rival Eknath Shinde camp were sequestered away at a hotel.
The BJP-Shiv Sena combine had won the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation elections with a slim majority — just four seats past the halfway mark. The BJP has 89 corporators in the 227-member House while the Shiv Sena has 29 representatives. The Mayoral post is largely symbolic but serves as a clear sign of political dominance within the fragmented political landscape.
Can Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena UBT still claim BMC Mayor post?
Members of the Shiv Sena (UBT) have repeatedly teased the possibility of a stunning takeover despite ‘losing’ the BMC elections. The mayoral lottery — to determine reservation category before the actual election by corporators — could even leave the party as the sole viable candidate. Party MP Sanjay Raut has also hinted at the possibility of defections that could wholly change the poll outcome.
“If it is God’s will, our party will have the mayor,” said party chief Uddhav Thackeray mere hours after votes were tallied.
“We are currently at 108 with the UBT, MNS, Congress, and our allies. The target is 114. We are marginally short by just six seats. Just wait and watch, anything can happen in Mumbai politics,” Raut told NDTV somewhat cryptically.
He also insisted that the Shinde camp was struggling to keep its newly elected representatives from returning to the Thackeray fold. Raut claimed many of them did not wish to see a BJP mayor in Mumbai.
Understanding the reservation lottery that will decide BMC Mayor
The Mayor of Mumbai is subject to a rotational reservation format — determined through a lottery. It will be determined whether the post will be reserved for women, SC, ST or OBC category. It will not be open to the general category as the last mayor hailed from this segment. The BJP-Sena coalition has suitable candidates in case the lottery determines that the next mayor will be a man or woman from the SC or OBC category. But there are only two ST corporators within the 227-member BMC — both from the Shiv Sena (UBT).
If the lottery reserves the mayoral post for the ST category, there can be only two corporators on the ballot — both from Shiv Sena (UBT).
Uddhav Sena to ‘support’ BJP against Shinde?
Multiple news reports have also quoted sources to reveal that the Shiv Sena (UBT) could stage a walkout during the mayoral elections within the BMC. Such a move would reduce the effective strength of the House during the vote and make it easier for the BJP to establish a majority without its ally.
Such a strategy could see the Eknath Shinde-led party lose bargaining power and suffer a major blow within the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation — despite being part of the winning coalition. There has been no official confirmation from the Uddhav Thackeray-led party — with some leaders reiterating calls for a ‘Shiv Sena mayor’.