The active subscriber base, rather than headline subscriber additions, is emerging as the new battleground in India’s telecom market, analysts said, as November data sharpened the contrast between operational momentum and reported scale.
Analysts point out that while overall wireless additions were positive, the industry lost active users during the month, underscoring that not all subscriber growth is revenue-relevant.
“Only Jio gained active subs in Nov-25,” Jefferies analysts noted. The brokerage added that Jio has now outperformed Bharti Airtel on active subscriber additions for the ninth consecutive month, signalling a sustained edge in user engagement and network usage rather than transient pricing-led gains.
Jio closes the gap with Airtel
This shift has narrowed what was once Airtel’s key differentiation. Kotak noted that Jio’s visitor location register (VLR) ratio rose to 98.2% in November, just shy of Airtel’s 98.8%,
Analysts from Kotak observed that the gap in November was at an all-time low. The convergence matters because Airtel’s premium positioning has historically rested on superior subscriber quality and lower dormancy, an advantage that is now visibly eroding, experts noted.
Geographically, the divergence is also becoming clearer. Analysts from Jefferies highlighted that Jio’s gains are concentrated in B- and A-circles, while Airtel’s losses were led by C-circles, suggesting that Jio is strengthening its footprint in markets that still offer data monetisation headroom. Over the past year, Jio’s active subscriber market share has climbed meaningfully, while Airtel’s has been broadly flat and Vodafone Idea’s has continued to decline. “VIL saw its steepest subs drop in past 14 months,” Jefferies analysts said, reinforcing concerns that retention challenges remain structural rather than cyclical.
The competitive gap is even starker in home broadband, where analysts see Jio building a second engine of dominance. JM Financial in its report said Jio’s continued robust subs additions in home broadband, is driven by its aggressive rollout of AirFiber using unlicensed band radio (UBR).
Jio scales up, Airtel grows but slower
Morgan Stanley echoed this view, noting that Jio’s wireline and FWA scale is translating into market share gains across fixed broadband categories. Airtel’s additions have improved sequentially, but analysts continue to describe its broadband momentum as incremental rather than disruptive.
While Jio and Airtel duke it out for dominance in a highly competitive and price sensitive Indian telecom market, mobile number portability requests remain near record levels.
“MNP requests remain elevated,” analysts from Kotak noted, warning that sustained churn typically pushes up dealer commissions and selling costs for operators. For net gainers such as Jio and Airtel, this implies higher acquisition costs, while for Vodafone Idea, high churn may continue to amplify subscriber losses.