With Black Friday looming, I am sure you will receive numerous notifications from brands urging you to purchase before the sale ends. “Scarcity Marketing wrote its death wish a couple of years ago. Over some time, people have not trusted scarcity marketing anymore. Furthermore, this marketing technique is often associated and related with a dishonest marketeer,” Harish Bijoor, business and brand strategy specialist, Harish Bijoor Consults Inc., told BrandWagon Online.
Consumers are becoming increasingly sceptical of ‘limited-time offers’ and ‘exclusive deals,’ viewing them not as genuine opportunities but as predictable ploys. As the market becomes saturated with these campaigns, their ability to ignite real urgency is fading.
Boom to bust?
Scarcity marketing operates on the psychological principle that limited supply boosts perceived value. A classic example is Starbucks’ seasonal offerings, like the Pumpkin Spice Latte, which generate excitement by being available only during a specific time of year. Furthermore, a report by Reuters estimated that the seasonal return of the Pumpkin Spice Latte coupled with other new items on the menu helped drive US same-store sales up eight per cent in Q4, 2023. Similarly, brands like Apple have perfected product drops that leverage exclusivity, with pre-orders often selling out in minutes. “Yes, scarcity marketing still works, but it has evolved. According to a study by HubSpot, 60% of consumers act on a purchase because they fear missing out. However, people today are more informed and can spot exaggerated tactics, so it’s all about being genuine. If there’s a real reason for urgency—like limited stock or a time-sensitive deal—it still creates excitement and action. Balancing urgency with honesty is key to building trust and driving results,” Sahaan Suman K, founder, Bubble Network, said.
According to another report by Adobe, $9.12 billion was spent on online shopping during Black Friday in 2022. Yet, cracks are forming in this strategy’s effectiveness. 40% of consumers are increasingly sceptical about marketing messages that claim limited stock or urgency, particularly when they feel the scarcity is artificial or overused, a report by Slice Digital revealed. This mistrust has been exacerbated by brands repeatedly extending deadlines or reintroducing ‘exclusive’ products. The term ‘discount fatigue’ has emerged to describe the diminishing impact of such tactics as shoppers grow wary of perpetual sales. “Today’s consumers crave authenticity. We shift toward honest, transparent communication and explain why the offer is limited and how it truly benefits them. Scarcity is more effective when it feels real and connected to genuine value. We focus on clear communication that justifies the scarcity, helping consumers feel confident that the offer is worth their attention,” Jay Rathod, founder and CEO, Koffeetech Communications, a digital marketing agency, said.
Why are consumers turning away?
The decline of scarcity marketing can be attributed to several factors, chief among them consumer fatigue. Overexposure to countdown timers, flash sales, and ‘limited-stock’ warnings has dulled the impact of these tactics. Events like Black Friday, once a single-day shopping frenzy, have morphed into months-long campaigns, making the urgency feel contrived. “Perception often hinges on transparency. We encourage clients to pair scarcity tactics with clear communication about why a product or offer is limited. For example, sharing insights about production constraints or exclusive partnerships can make scarcity feel justified rather than manipulative. A classic example of this is the exclusive launches of the latest mobile devices for a marketplace or retailer. Data and customer analytics also help us recommend offers that genuinely match customer needs, reducing scepticism,” Vijeta Soni, co-founder and CEO, Sciative Solutions, an ad tech company, commented. This saturation also leads to desensitisation, meaning that even the most well-timed sales fail to trigger the same sense of urgency they once did.
Another critical factor is the changing expectations of consumers. Today’s shoppers are more focused on long-term value and transparency, rather than short-term urgency. 73% of Gen Z and millennial consumers prioritise brands that align with their values, such as sustainability and ethical practices, a McKinsey study revealed. This shift indicates that consumers are no longer just looking for the best deal; they want to support brands that are genuine and transparent. As a result, scarcity marketing, which often promotes rapid consumption, might be losing favour among value-driven shoppers.
Impacts on stakeholders
The declining impact of scarcity marketing affects not only consumers but also brands and advertising platforms. For brands, the overuse of urgency-based marketing could backfire. While short-term sales might spike, long-term customer loyalty could be compromised if consumers feel manipulated. Ad-tech platforms and marketing agencies also face challenges. As algorithms and data optimise campaigns for urgency, they risk creating a sense of monotony. Consumers notice when every ‘personalised’ ad relies on the same scarcity formula, reducing its impact. Meanwhile, platforms face growing scrutiny over the ethical implications of perpetuating artificial scarcity. “Algorithms are designed to analyse behaviour and establish a perfect resonance by adding pressure at the right moment without even intruding on the user. Data from user feedback and interaction help in the continuous improvement of the offerings,” Saif Ahmad, Founder, Luhaif Digitech, an ad tech company, explained.
Consumers, for their part, are learning to navigate these tactics. Increasingly, they delay purchases, confident that “final sales” will lead to deeper discounts later. This shift undermines the effectiveness of scarcity marketing and forces brands to rethink their strategies. “The alpha generation ahead of us is a generation which does believe in buying the way it wants to buy. Sellers need to sharpen their tactics and strategies that ensure that they sell the way a buyer wants to buy and not sell the way a seller wants to sell. Thus far, scarcity marketing is all focused on seller-oriented strategy and that needs to be bridged,” Bijoor added.
Furthermore, experts opined that as brands move away from high-frequency, urgency-driven campaigns, there’s an increased demand for more personalised and value-based marketing strategies. AI and data analytics are already playing a role in tailoring more relevant and authentic offers, moving away from the broad ‘one-size-fits-all’ scarcity campaigns of the past.
The road ahead
The waning effectiveness of scarcity marketing signals a broader shift in consumer expectations. Rather than rushing to capitalise on a fleeting sense of urgency, brands seem to be increasingly expected to build trust and long-term relationships with their customers. Experts add that transparency, authenticity, and sustainability are becoming key drivers of consumer loyalty. Furthermore, personalised marketing is believed to be emerging as a promising alternative. “In today’s data-driven age, brands are moving beyond generic, urgent marketing tactics. By harnessing the power of personalisation, they’re crafting tailored experiences that resonate deeply with consumers. By leveraging customer-related data from website analytics, CRM platforms, and marketing tools, along with deep analysis of broader market and industry trends, brands can gain valuable insights into individual preferences and behaviours. This enables them to deliver relevant offers that feel genuine, fostering trust and loyalty. As consumers become increasingly savvy, brands must prioritise authenticity over artificial scarcity, focusing on building long-lasting relationships rather than short-term gains,” Swati Bhargava, co-founder, CashKaro and EarnKaro, added. For instance, Sephora’s Beauty Insider program offers customers early access to sales and exclusive products, but without the pressure of an urgent, limited-time offer. This strategy creates a sense of value and community, not just a fear of missing out.
Sustainability is another important factor in this shift. As consumers become more aware of the environmental impact of overconsumption, many are choosing brands that prioritise sustainable practices over those that rely on constant sales. 62% of Gen-Z shoppers prefer to buy from sustainable brands, and a staggering 73% are willing to pay more for sustainable products, a report by First Insights revealed.
As consumers grow more attuned to the tricks of scarcity marketing, brands may find that the very sense of urgency they once relied on now falls flat. In a world where shoppers demand transparency, authenticity, and genuine value, the pressure is on businesses to rethink how they engage their audience. The real question is not whether scarcity marketing is dead, but whether brands are ready to let go of the old playbook and embrace a future where lasting connections and not fleeting offers define success. We must ask – are we ready to trade FOMO for a brand experience worth sticking around for?