Private lender Axis Bank will release its fiscal fourth quarter earnings report on April 24 (Thursday) and per brokerage firms, it is expected to post muted performance during the period owing to sluggish loan growth and subdued margins. According to a Moneycontrol poll, Axis Bank’s net interest income (NII) is expected to post a modest rise of 6.1 per cent YoY to Rs 13,894 crore in Q4FY25 and the profit is likely to drop by 6 per cent on-year to Rs 6,710 crore. While asset quality ratios are expected to record a flat trend, credit cost is likely to decline for the bank.
An analysis report by Nomura said that Axis Bank is expected to witness softer loan growth in comparison to its peers, led by lower deposit growth. Credit cost is likely to stay elevated, but contained at 0.9 per cent and NIMs are expected to remain stable QoQ.
Axis Bank Q4 results date
Axis Bank has announced that it will release its financial results on April 24. Besides, the company board will also recommend a final dividend for the financial year ended March 31, 2025. Axis Bank also informed the exchanges that the company board will explore the option of raising funds through the issue of equity shares/ depository receipts and/or any other instruments or securities representing either equity shares and/or convertible securities linked to equity shares including through Qualified Institutions Placement (QIP). Axis Bank will also consider issuing debt instruments for the fundraise.
Forecasts from brokerage firms
In terms of the banking sector’s performance during the quarter, Kotak Institutional Equities said, “We would want to believe that system credit could potentially grow slower than system deposits. We also believe that asset quality deterioration, despite fears, is unlikely to materialize immediately.” This, it added, would imply that Axis Bank would be positioned best among the large private banks. SBI is likely to be well-positioned in this leg of the cycle, where concerns are primarily on NIM.
According to Nuvama, Axis Bank is likely to grow by 2.7 per cent sequentially and 6.8 per cent on-year. Margin, it said, is likely to remain stable. “Higher trading gains and lower provisions would lead to higher PAT. Axis will likely report QoQ loan growth of 2.8 per cent,” the brokerage firm said.
ICICI Securities said that Axis Bank is expected to deliver single-digit loan growth. “We estimate a NIM decline of 3-6 bps QoQ for banks such as HDFCB, Axis, KMB, CUBK, and Yes Bank. Despite likely muted business growth /outlook, we believe Axis may provide positive commentary around incremental stress formation amidst liquidity easing,” it said.
Elara Capital said that Axis Bank is expected to post a softer growth in loan book sequentially and similar deposit growth as well. “NIM continues to be a key monitorable. We expect steady NIMs or a marginal decline. Opex trend would lend support to core PPoP growth. Expect asset quality to be key monitorable. Credit cost is likely to move towards longer term averages,” it said.
Estimates from brokerage firms
Nuvama
NII +OI
Rs 21,008.40 crore; Up 6% YoY
PPoP
Rs 11,546.90 crore; Up 10% YoY
Core PAT
Rs 7221.50 crore; Up 1% YoY
Sharekhan
NII
Rs 13,841 crore; Up 5.7% YoY
PPoP
Rs 11,046 crore; Up 4.8% YoY
PAT
Rs 6,842 crore; Down 4% YoY
ICICI Securities
NII
Rs 13,816.90 crore; Up 5.6% YoY
PPoP
Rs 10,713.60 crore; Up 1.7% YoY
PAT
Rs 6610.60 crore; Down 7.3% YoY
InCred Equities
NII
Rs 13,800.00 crore; Up 5.2% YoY
PPoP
Rs 11,100.00 crore; Up 5.0% YoY
PAT
Rs 6900.00 crore; Down 3.9% YoY
Nomura
NII
Rs 13,990.00 crore; Up 7% YoY
PPoP
Rs 10,890.00 crore; Up 3% YoY
PAT
Rs 6580.00 crore; Down 8% YoY
Elara Capital
NII
Rs 13,961.90 crore; Up 6.7% YoY
PPoP
Rs 10,762.70 crore; Up 2.2% YoY
PAT
Rs 6535.30 crore; Down 8.3% YoY
What are key monitorables?
Investors and market participants are keeping an eye on Axis Bank’s management commentary on progress on deposit growth, outlook on Pre-Provisioning Operating Profits (PPoP) growth and credit cost outcomes. Brokerage firms said that investors will also watch out for asset quality.