The worst fears about swine flu are coming true. From a few isolated cases of people returning from abroad, the infection has now begun to spread to common populace. The number of cases is on the rise and so is the death toll that has gone up to 13 in Pune just under a week. The National Institute of Virology (NIV) here has been inundated with samples for H1N1 testing and has not been able to cope. It is one of the only two authorised labs in Maharashtra to test such samples.
Delay in diagnosis has meant death for the 14-year old Reeda Shaikh and the government has been caught off guard, with no preparations to meet this kind of an eventuality. It took the government a while to understand that Pune had become the epicentre of the pandemic.
Now the district administration has decided to administer Tamiflu to suspects instead of waiting for results from NIV to contain the epidemic. Private hospitals are being told to be prepared for contingencies and the number of screening centres is being increased. More than 39,410 patients have been screened so far. On a daily basis there are at least 10,000 anxious people waiting at recently set up 36 screening centres to get themselves checked. For long there was only one screening centre in Pune which led to total chaos.
A software professional returning from New Jersey was detected with the first case of the H1N1 virus on June 21. But the spurt came in when the flu came to Pune along with a team of students from Abhinav school who were returning from a student exchange programme in Indiana, US on July 8. The flu then spread to 22 more students of the same school. The school and local administration could not decide on what to do and finally shut the school on July 21 but the damage was done and the virus had spread. On August 3, when the first swine flu death of Reeda Shaikh was reported from Pune, the situation just spiralled.
The government?s immediate reaction was to ease guidelines for handling infected people. They were asking heath authorities to hospitalise only the very serious cases and letting other confirmed cases go home. Result: the city now had more positive cases ? 396 (as on August 13) ? the highest in the country. There was only one screening centre and a single hospital for infectious diseases treating patients. Meanwhile, more deaths continued and this triggered panic.
Why did the virus pick on Pune? According to NIV officials, the climate in Pune is conducive for the survival of the swine flu virus. The weather is neither too hot nor too cold and this helps spread the infection, he said. Add to this the strike of civic workers a few days ago. Garbage had piled up in all parts of the city adding to the fear of infection. The team from the National Centre for Communicable Diseases (NCDC) has blamed the lack of hygiene for the quick spread of infection. The hospitals where the patients have been isolated have trash overflowing in bins and have badly-maintained toilets. The administration seems to have wrung its hands in despair. Only corrective measures could help, feel officials .
The pandemic has spread outside the city limits as well. There have been a couple of deaths of residents outside city limits. A doctor died in Nashik of swine flu. A high alert has been sounded in Aurangabad and seven surrounding districts. Three H1N1 suspects have been detected in Kolhapur and another six suspected cases in Ahmednagar.
The World Health Organisation has declared swine flu as a global pandemic and raised the warning level from phase 5 to 6, but the administration is shying away from announcing the Pandemic level 6 in the district and is yet to decide on a total shutdown. Politicians in the city have been demanding the implementation of the Mexican Model in the city to control swine flu. But there is confusion. Health experts say that there could be an increase in the number of those infected by the virus. Only timely testing and quick remedial action could minimise the toll. Till then Pune is at the mercy of the virus.
Impact assessment
Bollywood hunks and macho men are getting cold feet. They aren?t willing to take the risk. Salman Khan cancelled the shoot of his film Veer. Kurban, starring Saif Ali Khan, Viveik Oberoi and Kareena Kapoor was slated to shoot in the city but with swine flu hitting Pune, filmmaker Karan Johar had to cancel the shoot. Kaminey, starring Shahid Kapoor has yet to hit the screens here. The outbreak has disrupted more than film shoots and releases.
Politicians are running scared and have decided to stay sway from Pune as well. The seat-sharing talks between the Congress and Sharad Pawar?s NCP for the upcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra was put on the backburner. Congress leader Digvijay Singh?s rally in Pune was cancelled. Shiv Sena Executive President Uddhav Thackeray, who had planned a tour of the state, cancelled it and returned to Mumbai.
Nasscom?s two-day global engineering summit, which was to be held in the city on August 18 and 19, attracting 300 industry participants, has been now pushed to November 2009. The National Rifle Association of India (NRAI) had to call off the ongoing national camp in Pune. The month-long camp began on July 25 and shooters were preparing for the Commonwealth Games. All schools, colleges and coaching classes have closed down sending young Pune indoors. Multiplexes were ordered to close shutters. Malls are deserted. Events are being cancelled. Swine flu has caught Pune in a tight grip.
Fear factor
With the maximum number of cases being reported out of Pune, the city also had the misfortune of having the highest casualties. And the list is growing by each passing day. The fear in the air is palpable. The roads are empty; people have taken to using masks for protection. This is a clear fallout of the spurt in swine flu cases in Pune.
Travel to Pune has been restricted by several IT companies. ?Business has been affected badly. There has been a fallout everywhere ? a drop in the prevailing occupancy rates in hotels by 25% and 20-30% drop in people visiting restaurants,? says Rajendra Kelshikar, Director, Deccan Rendevous Hotels.
This does not augur well for the hospitality industry but they are taking all precautions. Keshav Baljee, VP, corporate affairs, Royal Orchid Hotels Limited, says linen of each guest who shows symptoms of cold/cough/flu is being isolated and disinfected. Shopping malls, multiplexes and top retailers in Pune have seen business dip by as much as 70% owing to the swine flu outbreak in the city. The 10 multiplexes and 20 movie halls in the city have shut shop on government orders. Occupancy rates in cinema halls had dipped by 25-30% even before the government directive. The shutdown would mean a loss of around Rs 1.25 lakh per day for the City Pride Multiplex owners. A majority of the malls have preferred to close down business for the week.? There has been a sharp decline in footfalls. From the 15,000 odd people visiting the mall on weekends, it has come down drastically to about 2,000 people,? R Garud, who is in charge of Centre Port Mall in the central part of the city informs. Only a few are carrying on as usual. Atul Takle, Head, corporate communications at Pantaloon Retail, which runs Big Bazaar and Central in Pune, maintained that Big Bazaar is running its five-day sale from August 12.
The swine flu scare has resulted in a 20 % drop in attendance in the IT/BPO sector, Companies such as IBM have allowed their people to ?work from home? if it fits their job profile. Pune has around 1,50,000 software professionals while those working with BPOs and other IT-enabled services are another lakh. A significant number of them travel overseas. Within the city, around 5,000 cabs and 400 buses transport these 2.5 lakh people daily round Pune.
At Fujitsu Consulting, anyone entering the company premises is being checked for fever and anyone detected with a temperature above normal is being sent home. Fujitsu Consulting has suspended all travel to the US and Europe for sometime and has made arrangements for transferring the urgent work to other offices in India if required. With the government announcing a shutdown of office premises, the company has also made provisions for employees to work from home. Zensar Technologies is asking associates who have cold and cough and are showing the slightest of symptoms to work from home. C Mahalingam, EVP and Chief People Officer, Symphony Services, says employees returning from overseas travel are granted a few days paid leave to ?cool off? before reporting to work again. The closure is expected to arrest the spread of the swine flu.
Given that swine flu has already dampened Independence Day spirits and the ?Dahi Handi? celebrations, Punekars are praying for a divine intervention to get life back on track.
Figuring out
Of the 24 deaths in India confirmed from the H1N1 virus till date, 13 are from Pune alone. 1,200 cases have already been diagnosed.
According to the WHO 1,77,457 cases have been confirmed and 1,462 people have died worldwide. It estimates H1N1 swine flu could affect 2 billion people globally.
20 million doses of a generic version of the antiflu drug Tamiflu has been built by Indian government.
6 is the number of hours it takes to test one sample of suspected swine flu.
$208 is what one single test in India costs.
According to media reports there has been 60% drop in footfalls in Pune malls, with 50% drop in sales. Shoppers Stop sales are down by 40% and Big Bazaar?s by 20%.
Social networking sites are flooded with concern, information and opinions on swine flu, keeping the near and dear ones informed…
Prash Kul wrote on Facebook a week back: ?Today six deaths confirmed in India due to swine flu. Now please suggest dos and dont?s. How to protect ourselves and our families??
And got a reply from Kimaya Deshpande on Facebook:
?The symptoms of swine flu are usually like those of regular seasonal flu and include:
• Headache
• Chills
• Cough
• Fever
• Loss of appetite
• Fatigue ????etc?
For Ravish Mishra, an MBA student from Suryadatta Institute of Management & Mass Communication, Pune, it?s time for recreation, who posted on his wall, ?For swine flu, the college is shut and it?s time to enjoy. Yeeee!!?
For P Lopamudra, who had to stay in Pune for a week, the whole scene of swine flu was scary. She wrote: ?I was scared seeing everyone wearing a mask, and I ended up wrapping around my dupatta. It was a fear to enter a crowded area.?