Looked upon as savings, this is a lot of money. Someone who earns Rs 40,000 a month probably doesnt save more than three or four thousand rupees a month. At Rs 4,000 a month, it would take almost eight years to save Rs 3.75 lakh. Even if we take into account some interest income, the arrears are worth six-and-a-half years worth of savings.
For those who save less than what Ive estimated, this sum could be the equivalent of what they would otherwise have saved in a decade, perhaps. Make no mistake; the size of the hike as well as the period of the arrears has made this whole thing financially very significant for many government employees.
What should be done with this money About the worse thing Ive heard is that this payout should boost demand in the economy, which is what some business association types have stated. What that implies is that people should go out and spend the money, presumably buying cars and LCD TVs and clothes and pizzas and whatnot and thus boost the economy.
My advice to government employees is quite the opposite. Let the economy find other ways to get any boosting that it needs. These arrears are your savings, you should hang on to them tightly, without trying to boost anything but your own financial situation.
Remember, this money is not a windfall. A windfall (a word which sounds vaguely like it should have a rude meaning) is what Amar Singh accuses Mukesh Ambani of enjoying. An average government employees situation is very different. The Pay Commissions award is a response not just to the rising cost of living but also to the general rise in private sectors salaries and an attempt to narrow the gap thus created. In this sense, the arrears are money that you have already spent. Given the way most peoples finances are structured nowadays, I think the first priority should be to lighten or eliminate any debt load that one has. Interest paid on borrowings has risen more than that earned on deposits. A lot of us tend to have savings that earn less than the interest on the loans that we are carrying at the same time. This is especially true of credit card debt, which is very expensive.
Beyond debt-reduction, the arrears money is best added to whatever savings medium you are most comfortable with. For those who want to invest for the long-term (at least five to seven years), the best course of action could be to shift this money gradually to a good balanced fund. As the last two decades have shown, despite higher volatility, equity-backed investments have long-term returns that are far superior to any other kind of asset.
A type of mutual fund that get you most of the gains of equity while saving you from some of the volatility is probably the best choice.
The author is CEO, Value Research