GDP data Q2 2017 highlights: India has announced July-September GDP growth rate today. In a major boost for Narendra Modi’s Gujarat state election campaign, India’s GDP growth bounced to 6.3 per cent in fiscal second quarter July-September from a three-year low in the first quarter. India’s GDP growth in the second quarter (Jul-Sep) accelerated to 6.3 per cent from 5.7 per cent in Apr-Jun and 6.1 per cent in Jan-Mar, Central Statistics Office data showed. The second quarter GDP growth rate is going to record the impact of the Goods and Services Tax on the economy for the first time since its implementation. India embarked upon an upward growth after 5-quarters of slowdown, especially after hitting a 3-year low to 5.7 per cent in the previous quarter due to self-imposed noteban and massive destocking ahead of an ambitious switch to the GST regime.
Here are highlights of the second quarter GDP growth rate:
6.59 PM: Arun Jaitley also said, “Last five quarters had witnessed a downward trend, GDP at 6.3% marks the reversal of that trend.”
6.58 PM: FM Arun Jaitley in the press briefing said, “Growth due to the boost in the Manufacturing sector.”
6.57 PM: FM Arun Jaitley said, “Manufacturing has grown.”
6.55 PM: FM Arun Jaitley said that the ‘Investments has moved up.’
6.53 PM: FM Arun Jaitley said, “Movement should be upward in Q3 and Q4.”
6.50 PM: In a press briefing, FM Arun Jaitley said, “Demonetisation and GST’s impact are behind us and hopefully in the coming quarter we can look for an upward trajectory. The fixed capital formation is at 4.7 per cent which means that the investment is moving up. This is our initial analysis.”
6.45 PM: Finance Minister Arun Jaitley lauded the growth in the manufacturing sector. He took to Twitter and wrote, “Government’s reforms to push economic growth are working can be seen from that manufacturing has shown robust growth of 7 per cent in Q2 and services at 7.1 per cent. Gross fixed capital formation has increased from 1.6 per cent in Q1 to 4.7 per cent in Q2.”
6.44 PM: Private sector investment will return in next 4-5 months and that will take the country forward: NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant to ANI.
6.40 PM: It is necessary to take the growth to 9-10% in the next decade and government has introduced a lot of structural reforms. There has been a major push in construction, mining and electricity sectors: NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant said to ANI.
6.35 PM: Amitabh Kant to ET Now: Certain that India is on a high growth trajectory in the long term; the great thing about FY18 Q2. GDP is manufacturing has taken a big jump.
6.30 PM: Anis Chakravarty, Lead Economist, Deloitte India: The latest set of numbers on growth for the second quarter show that activity levels were recovering from the disruption caused in the first quarter. The break up shows improved performance of manufacturing that could have possibly been affected by the implementation of GST from 1st of July. High-frequency indicators such as auto sales suggest that demand has recovered since then and manufacturing could see better numbers in the quarters ahead. A pick up in mining activity was also clearly visible and bodes well for the economy. The agriculture sector seems to have underperformed given the normal rainfall and Kharif output. Financial services have slowed from the previous quarter possibly still getting affected by the disruptions over the last year. Private demand seems to be stable and should show some improvement in the coming quarters along with capital formation. Broadly the numbers are in line with expectations and the second half of the current year is expected to see a further improvement from these levels.
6.25 PM: The former FM P Chidambaram on Twitter took a jibe at the Modi government.
6.3% is far below the PROMISE of the Modi government and far below the POTENTIAL of a well-managed Indian economy.
— P. Chidambaram (@PChidambaram_IN) November 30, 2017
6.23 PM: Q2 GDP growth at 6.3 pc encouraging; performance of agriculture sector poor: Chief Statistician TCA Anant.
6.19 PM: The former Finance Minister P Chidambaram tweeted, “We should wait for the growth rates over the next 3-4 quarters before we can reach a definite conclusion.”
6.17 PM: “But we cannot say now whether this will mark an upward trend in the growth rate,” tweeted P Chidambaram.
6.15 PM: “Happy that the July-Sep quarter has registered a growth rate of 6.3%. This a PAUSE in the declining trend of the last five quarters.” Tweets the former Finance Minister P Chidambaram.
6.14 PM: “In Cement sector, the fall in growth cannot be determined as of now. But in real estate sector, the restructure can be the reason. RERA was implemented and the companies are still adjusting to it,” said Chief Statistician T.C.A.Anant.
6.12 PM: Chief Statistician T.C.A.Anant, while speaking at the conference said, “Construction sector is indicator driven, mainly Cement and Steel. The numbers in these sectors are not showing good growth as of now.
6.10 PM: “Uncertainty regarding of GST is gone and manufacturing has started in good numbers,” said Chief Statistician T.C.A.Anant.
6.08 PM: “I am not aware of break up of the manufacturing sector in public and private sector. 7 per cent is not as high for the manufacturing sector but given that it is an increase coming from a Q2 of decline,” said Chief Statistician T.C.A.Anant while addressing the press conference.
6.05 PM: “GDP for Q2 showed some signs of stabilisation as GVA (gross value added) growth has picked up on the back of improved industrial performance, especially from the mining and electricity sectors. Even manufacturing performance has improved sequentially, reversing some of the disruptive effects of the GST rollout. What is worrisome is the sequential weakening of fixed investments in real terms. Private consumption seems to have stabilised though. Today’s data points rule out any policy rate reduction in December. RBI will be duly worried about (the country’s) worsening fiscal position and hardening of crude and other mineral prices. However, they will not raise the rates soon as overall investment sentiment is still weak.” –Rupa Rege Nitsure, Group Chief Economist, L&T Financial Services
6.00 PM: “The latest growth outturn is in line with RBI’s recent rhetoric and thus shouldn’t move the needle on interest rates. We expect RBI to remain on pause in December and February, given upside risks to inflation as well as the fiscal deficit, exacerbated by rising oil prices and a gradually tightening global rates environment. We estimate India’s full year GDP growth to pick up from 6.7 per cent in FY18 to 7.3 per cent and 7.5 per cent in FY19 and FY20, respectively.” – Sumedh Deorukhkar, Senior Economist, BBVA, Hong Kong
5.58 PM: “The GDP number is exactly in line with our expectations. Upbeat corporate earnings results have been reflected in the manufacturing sector. As the revival continues, we are likely to keep the annual (GDP) forecast unchanged at 6.5 percent.” – Tushar Arora, Senior Economist, HDFC Bank
5.53 PM: Chief Statistician of India and Secretary, MOSPI Dr.T.C.A.Anant in a press conference said, “A large part of direct and indirect taxes were shifted GST.”
5.48 PM: GDP Growth recovers from a three year low.
5.43 PM: The key indicators of mining sector, namely, production of coal, crude oil and IIP mining registered growth rates of 8.6 per cent, (-)0.7 percent and 7.2 per cent respectively during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to (-)4.2 per cent, (-)3.3 per cent and (-)1.5 per cent respectively in Q2 of 2016-17.
5.42 PM: Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2017-18 from mining and quarrying sector grew by 5.5 per cent as compared to a decline of 1.3 per cent in Q2 of 2016-17.
5.41 PM: The production of food grains during the Kharif season of the agriculture year 2017-18 declined by 2.8 per cent as compared to the growth of 10.7 per cent during the same period in 2016-17. Around 52.5 per cent of GVA of this sector is based on the livestock products, forestry and fisheries, which registered a combined growth of around 3.8 per cent in Q2 of 2017-18.
5.40 PM: Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2017-18 from agriculture, forestry and fishing sector grew by 1.7 per cent as compared to growth of 4.1 per cent in Q2 of 2016-17.
5.36 PM: The growth in the agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining and quarrying, construction, financial, insurance, real estate and professional services and Public administration, defence & other services is estimated to be 1.7 percent, 5.5 per cent, 2.6 per cent, 5.7 per cent and 6.0 per cent respectively, during this period.
5.35 PM: The economic activities which registered growth of over 6.0 percent in Q2 of 2017-18 over Q2 of 2016-17 are manufacturing, electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services and trade, hotels, transport & communication and services related to broadcasting.
5.34 PM: Quarterly GVA at Basic Price at constant (2011-12) prices for Q2 of 2017-18 is estimated at Rs 29.18 lakh crore, as against Rs 27.51 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17, showing a growth rate of 6.1 percent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.
5.33 PM: GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q2 of 2017-18 is estimated at Rs 31.66 lakh crore, as against Rs 29.79 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17, showing a growth rate of 6.3 percent.
5.32 PM: India’s July-September growth at 6.3% versus 7.5% YoY
5.30 PM: October cement output at -2.7% vs 6.2% YoY, steel output at 8.4% vs 17,4% YoY
5.27 PM: October refinery products output at 7.5% vs 12.6% YoY, natural gas output at 2.8% vs -1.5% YoY
5.28 PM: October coal output at 3.9% vs -1.9% YoY, fertiliser output at 3% vs 0.7% YoY
5.22 PM: September core sector output revised downwards to 4.7% vs 5.2% earlier.
5.19 PM: SBI estimates that the GDP can hit up to 6.5% growth rate
5.16 PM: Sensex slumps over 450 points ahead of the GDP data
5.09 PM: April-October core sector growth at 3.5% vs 5.6% year-on-year, October core sector output rises to 4.7%.
4.22 PM: Restocking after GST will benefit the manufacturing sector and continuing remonetisation will be positive for a lot of private sector services like construction and trade transportation, says Nomura.
3.34 PM: GDP would bounce back with better credit growth, investment growth and growth in exports, as Indian economy has the potential to grow at 8 to 10 percent. As GST is also stabilising, it will also help in that, said Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian earlier this week.
3.09 PM: India’s fiscal deficit widens, hits 96.1% of full-year target ahead of GDP growth data.
2.28 PM: India close to $2.5 trillion economy in terms of GDP, says Arun Jaitley.
1.58 PM: India has standardised itself on a 7-8% growth rate on the back of improving macroeconomic fundamentals, says Arun Jaitley.
1.22 PM: The economic growth in the second quarter of the fiscal to be greater than the first quarter, a reversal in the slowdown to be seen, CNBC-TV18 reported citing government sources.
1.18 PM: Finance Minister Arun Jaitley says attaining 10% GDP growth rate is very challenging despite having achieved 7% growth rate over the last three years.
12.52 PM: The second quarter economic growth was cushioned by festive demand, and an uptick in industrial production, says Shashank Mendiratta, an economist at ANZ.
12.07 PM: Industry body FICCI estimates a GDP growth at 6.2 % saying that the country seems to be stabilising under the GST.
12.01 PM: Credit rating agency ICRA says that the economic growth, as per the Gross Value Added (GVA) calculation, would record a sequential recovery to 6.3 percent in the second quarter led by a broad-based pick up in industrial growth.
11.26 AM: The rupee slipped 24 paise at 64.55 against the US dollar in early trade on Thursday ahead of GDP growth data.
11.17 AM: The key equity indices Sensex and Nifty traded lower in the late morning trade on Thursday as market sentiments seemed to have turned negative ahead of India’s GDP growth data.