With all eyes rivetted on Governor Raghuram Rajan and whether he will get a second term or not, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monetary policy review outcome has, curiously, acquired secondary importance – surprisingly, today’s review could also turn out be the last one anchored by Rajan if the proposed Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is put in place before the next review due on August 9.

With data still not in the comfort zone, at least for the cbank, what with inflation rearing its head again and global crude oil prices inching up, exactly what is on the decision-makers minds will be revealed today, at least about whether there will be a repo rate rate cut – about the Governor’s fate, things will continue to remain opaque. On the whole, experts say, RBI is likely to maintain the status quo on interest rates today at its bi-monthly monetary policy review for the current fiscal. Here we take a look at what experts are saying:

1. “This is a sweet spot for the RBI, with inflation on track and an upward bias to growth. Overall the policy stance will be balanced with no rate cuts unless there is better clarity on the monsoon. They will keep the word “accommodative” in the statement,” said A. Prasanna, an economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership Ltd in Mumbai.

2. “I don’t see much in this credit policy. Interest rate wise, there would not be any change,” IDBI Bank Managing Director Kishor Kharat said.

3. “I think the RBI’s current focus is on liquidity and it has been infusing huge amount of liquidity in the system. This year so far we have had around Rs 70,000 crore of liquidity addition. It doesn’t really matter whether it cuts rates or not, because the improvement in liquidity could push a faster transmission of rate cuts that have already happened,” HDFC Bank chief economist Abheek Barua.

4. “RBI is likely to maintain status quo this time. Although there is consistency in inflation numbers, the last numbers do not give much comfort. Only positive factor is good monsoon. RBI will wait for it to happen before taking any call on rate cuts,” a senior banker said.

5. “With inflation remaining sticky at slightly above 5 per cent and growth fairly steady (although uneven), we expect policy rates to stay on hold until end-2016 (including at the upcoming policy meeting on June 7) with the focus shifting to liquidity provision,” Nomura said in a report.

6. “Personally, I don’t expect the Governor to cut the rates on Tuesday given the delay in the monsoons,” StanChart India CEO Zarin Daruwala said.

7. According to Morgan Stanley, the Reserve Bank of India is expected to wait for the onset of monsoon to see the trend in actual inflation before proceeding for the rate cut.

8. “There is a compelling reason for RBI to cut interest rate as inflation is low, monsoon projection is favourable and there is a need to push growth. My sense is that the central bank would cut rate by 0.25 per cent this time and by similar percentage point in August before the busy credit season starts,” Yes Bank Managing Director Rana Kapoor said.

9. “I think the Governor has been doing a great job for the country and we would certainly see it as a very positive move if he were reappointed,” Naushad Forbes, president of the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has said, echoing what the mood in India Inc is at the moment.

10. “I am beginning to think whether this government deserves Dr Rajan. The UPA government appointed one of the most outstanding economists of the world as the RBI Governor. We placed full confidence in him at that time and we continue to place full confidence in him today,” said former FM P Chidambaram replied when asked whether he should be given a second term.

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