By Ashok Gulati, Distinguished professor, ICRIER
Notwithstanding the robodog goofup by Galgotias University and the “shirtless” demonstration by some misguided youths, the AI Impact Summit was hugely successful in raising artificial intelligence (AI) awareness amongst young Indians. The fact that 91 countries and international organisations have endorsed the Delhi Declaration for the use of AI for global good—Sarvajan hitaya and sarvajan sukhaya (Welfare for all, and happiness for all)—speaks for its success.
However, three fundamental issues discussed at the summit: Will AI lead to faster growth? Will it create or take away jobs? And will its benefits be equally distributed?
A majority of the answers to the first question were affirmative—undoubtedly, it will accelerate overall development. Many opined that humanity is likely to leap-frog in its evolution of knowledge, efficiency, and growth. Within the next decade, explosive growth in AI is likely, which will disrupt the functioning of almost all sectors, and those who want to remain in a business-as-usual mode will be left far behind. However, the biggest debate about AI is whether this process of creative destruction would lead to massive job losses. Opinions are currently divided.
The managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, has highlighted the risk of job losses and likened the arrival of AI hitting the job market to a tsunami—40% and 60% of jobs in emerging and advanced economies will likely be affected. However, Mukesh Ambani, chairman and managing director of Reliance Industries Limited, has said they will ensure there are no job losses in the Indian industry as a result of AI induction. Only time will tell who will be right.
My own take is that similar fears were expressed in the late 1980s, when then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi introduced computers. Employees in banks, railways, and many other sectors went on strike fearing they would lose their jobs. Today, it is impossible to think about our banks running without computers. This is where creative destruction needs to be remembered. Every new technology demolishes the old one and creates massive disruption but enables higher efficiency and growth. As a result, the economy expands, creating new jobs of higher skills and pay.
But there are always some losers, especially in the short term, and some mechanism to upskill and/or compensate them must be in place to minimise the pain and maximise the gains.
The next question is about equity. Who will gain and who will lose? Obviously, early starters will gain first and that may accentuate inequality in the short term. It may also be because very few countries can afford to make massive investments—AI development needs energy. But as has happened in many other technologies, very soon cheaper options emerge and usage expands exponentially, benefitting most of the populace.
India’s comparative advantage is in finding low-cost solutions that the Global South can afford and use at a mass scale. Be it the vaccines during Covid-19, the innovative United Payments Interface, or the Indian Space Research Organisation landing Chandrayaan-3 on the south pole of the moon, India can do wonders and emerge as the third-strongest global AI power.
There is no doubt that developing AI at scale requires massive investments, and top Indian industrialists have promised to pitch in. Also, my reading is that India is at least five years behind the US and China, who are already in the race to develop AI in humanoids. One cannot say with much confidence right now whether India can catch up and co-lead this race. However, the AI Impact Summit definitely sparked curiosity and led to the re-chalking of investment plans. The policy environment must be conducive for that to flourish. Regulatory issues, data ownership, equity, etc. are all important, but we need to ensure that India is not left behind as just a user of Chinese or American AI. It must aim for its own models and apps—only then it can claim to be “atmanirbhar” (self-reliant) in this new world of AI.
I had the privilege to co-chair the agriculture segment in the BCG-Prosus “AI for All” whitepaper released for this summit, and it speaks about whether Indian farmers and agriculture will gain from AI. Since agriculture employs 46% of our workforce, there is always a concern about whether AI applications will displace labour. Very briefly, AI will be used in India’s agri-food system, not just in precision agriculture at the production stage but also at the logistics/marketing/processing stage. Many players are using it already, and the government is also developing AgriStack which will utilise it. The dawn of a new era in agriculture is soon approaching.