The markets are relatively muted, but investors are keen about potential opportunities to invest in. Leading international brokerage house, Jefferies, has a ‘Buy’ rating on some key stocks in focus, projecting up to 28% upside from current levels.

Here is a detailed analysis of the top 4 picks from Jefferies at this hour, and the investment rationale

Jefferies on Indian Oil Corporation: ‘Buy’

Jefferies maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on Indian Oil Corporation and raised its price target to Rs 180 from Rs 160, indicating a 20% potential upside from Rs 150. The brokerage said the company’s September-quarter EBITDA at Rs 14,600 crore was 33% above its estimate, helped by strong refining margins. Reported gross refining margins averaged $10.7 per barrel, nearly $6.8 above the Singapore benchmark.

The central government’s Rs 30,000 crore compensation for LPG under-recoveries across oil marketing companies is seen as a key earnings driver. Indian Oil’s share amounts to about Rs 14,500 crore, which will be paid over 12 months beginning in November. The brokerage said this cash infusion will strengthen the balance sheet and reduce net debt.

Jefferies raised its FY26–FY27 EBITDA estimates by 37% and 33%. The main downside risk, it said, lies in a sharp rise in crude prices or renewed government control over retail fuel pricing, which could squeeze marketing margins. 

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Jefferies on Sona BLW: ‘Buy’

Jefferies reaffirmed its ‘Buy’ call on Sona BLW Precision Forgings, increasing the target price to Rs 585 from Rs 515, implying a 21% upside. The brokerage said the company’s September-quarter performance marked a clear turnaround after two weak quarters. Revenue grew 24% year-on-year to Rs 1,143 crore, driven by its new railway business and strong traction in suspension and traction motors. EBITDA rose 13% to Rs 289 crore, 10% above the brokerage’s forecast, while margin expanded to 25.3% from 23.8% in the previous quarter.

The order book stood at Rs 23,600 crore at the end of the quarter, or 5.5 times its FY26 estimated revenue. The company is also eyeing opportunities in Europe, where several competitors have filed for insolvency. Jefferies lifted its FY26–28 EPS estimates by 14–17% and expects 18% compound annual growth in profit over the period.

The brokerage valued the stock at 45 times September 2027 estimated earnings. Risks include prolonged weakness in EV demand or persistent component shortages that could disrupt order execution.

Jefferies on Indus Towers: ‘Buy’

Jefferies upgraded Indus Towers to ‘Buy’ with a target of Rs 425, signalling an 18% potential upside from Rs 361. The brokerage noted that the tower company’s September-quarter numbers were stronger than anticipated. Revenue rose 10% year-on-year to Rs 8,200 crore, while EBITDA grew 15% to Rs 4,417 crore. Normalised profit rose 19% to Rs 1,690 crore, aided by higher other income and improved margins.

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The Supreme Court’s recent verdict on the adjusted gross revenue (AGR) issue may allow the government to extend relief to Vodafone Idea, which in turn could improve Indus Towers’ dividend outlook. The company had withheld dividends earlier due to uncertainty around VIL’s payments. Jefferies said a resumption in payouts could trigger a rerating as investors regain confidence in the company’s cash flow reliability.

Over FY25–FY28, the brokerage expects Indus to add about 35,000 towers and 56,000 tenancies, implying a tenancy ratio of 1.6 times by FY28. Free cash flow, which dipped this quarter on higher capex, is projected to normalise to Rs 19–24 per share by FY27–28.

Jefferies raised its FY26–FY28 earnings estimates by up to 4% and the key risk as per them is “Vodafone Idea’s liquidity position and any delay in its payments.”

Jefferies on Supreme Industries: ‘Buy’

Jefferies has a ‘Buy’ rating on Supreme Industries with a target price of Rs 5,100, implying about 28% upside from its reference level of Rs 4,000. The brokerage said the company’s core pipes business grew at a healthy pace, with volumes rising 17% year-on-year in the September quarter. Total volumes climbed 12% year-on-year, and value-added sales, which carry higher margins, rose 18%, accounting for roughly 45% of revenue.

EBITDA came in 7% below expectations as operating margin slipped to 12.4% from 14% last year, dragged by a sharp fall in PVC resin prices. PVC is trading near Covid-period lows at around $660 per tonne. Jefferies said an anti-dumping duty, once cleared by the government, could arrest further price declines and improve channel restocking.

Over FY25–FY28, Jefferies expects sales to grow at 15% annually and profit at 22%. At the current valuation of 42 times forward earnings, the brokerage believes the stock will continue to trade at a premium to its five-year average. Risks include a slowdown in housing and infrastructure demand or renewed volatility in PVC prices.