Focus on the telecom sector now – Bharti Airtel is moving in a tight range as Jefferies reiterated its Buy call on the telecom operator and kept its target price at Rs 2,635. This implies an upside of nearly 22%. The brokerage said Bharti remains its preferred pick in Indian telecom, supported by a stable market structure, rising 4G/5G penetration, and sustained revenue gains compared to Jio and Vodafone Idea, as outlined in its latest sector update.
Jefferies on Bharti Airtel: Market share consolidation continues
Jefferies said the Indian mobile industry is in a phase of ongoing consolidation, with Bharti gaining 70 basis points of market share in 2QFY26 compared to FY25 levels. This gain came on the back of stronger gross additions and lower churn. The brokerage noted that Bharti’s underlying growth momentum positioned it well to keep expanding its share in coming quarters, particularly in higher-value circles where the operator has strengthened its lead over the last year.
The report added that the competitive environment has remained largely stable, with Vodafone Idea unable to scale investments meaningfully and Jio seeing a marginal slowdown in addition trends. This stability has created a backdrop in which Bharti’s consistent execution is translating into share gains without pricing volatility.
Jefferies on Bharti Airtel: Revenue gains outpace peers across circles
According to the brokerage, Bharti outperformed the industry in 16 out of 22 circles in terms of revenue growth, marking the strongest circle-level showing in the sector during the September quarter. Jefferies said revenue rose 12% year-on-year for Bharti in 2QFY26, after rising 12% in the previous quarter as well, making the expansion more meaningful because it came from a higher base.
The report noted that this outperformance reflected steadier subscriber additions, better postpaid traction, and a richer overall usage profile compared with peers. Bharti’s execution on segmented pricing and targeted upgrades also contributed to revenue resilience in markets where overall industry growth has moderated.
Jefferies on Bharti Airtel: ARPU gains steady as mix improves
Jefferies pointed out that Bharti’s average revenue per user (ARPU) continued to improve, rising 10% year-on-year in 2QFY26. The brokerage said ARPU strength was driven by higher 4G and 5G penetration, better postpaid mix, and sustained upgrades in lower-value prepaid cohorts.
The report highlighted that Bharti’s ARPU trajectory remains stronger than Jio and Vodafone Idea, and that tariff repair whenever it comes will disproportionately benefit operators with higher-value customer bases. Bharti’s current mix, Jefferies said, positions it well to absorb cost pressures in the near term while preserving profitability.
Jefferies on Bharti Airtel: Industry revenue pool remains stable
The brokerage said the industry’s total revenue pool remains steady, supported by rising smartphone adoption and healthy data usage trends. Jefferies noted that consumers continue to shift toward higher-value plans as data needs expand, helping offset the drag from inactive subs or low-value users who typically add volatility to headline metrics.
The report added that although there has been no sector-wide tariff increase yet, the underlying revenue profile remains firm, with operators relying on mix improvement and data growth to support earnings.
Jefferies on Bharti Airtel: Profitability metrics hold up well
Jefferies said Bharti’s EBITDA performance remained consistent during the first half of FY26, supported by operating leverage and controlled network-related costs. The brokerage expects EBITDA to rise to Rs 93,600 crore in FY26 from Rs 88,000 crore, driven by a combination of ARPU improvement, subscriber upgrades and moderate cost inflation.
It also said Bharti’s non-wireless businesses enterprise and home broadband continue to add incremental stability to the earnings base. The home broadband segment, in particular, has expanded to more cities through a franchise-led model that keeps capex in check while pushing subscriber growth.
Jefferies on Bharti Airtel: Capex cycle easing, FCF visibility improving
The report noted that Bharti’s elevated capex cycle is now tapering as 5G rollout nears completion in key markets. Jefferies expects free cash flow visibility to improve meaningfully as capex moderates, helping with balance sheet strengthening and lowering net debt-to-EBITDA over the medium term.
This improved cash generation, the brokerage said, creates space for Bharti to pursue selective growth investments without weakening its financial profile.
Jefferies on Bharti Airtel: Tariff hikes remain an optional upside
While tariff hikes have not materialised yet, Jefferies said any upward revision in headline pricing would immediately lift ARPU and earnings. Bharti, with its stronger mix and higher-value subscriber base, is positioned to benefit “the most” when industry pricing eventually moves up. For now, however, Jefferies is not building tariff hikes into its base case but calls it a clear optional upside.
Jefferies on Bharti Airtel: Risks to watch
Jefferies flagged a few risks that could affect the thesis:
- Delayed tariff hikes,
- Competitive activity in select circles,
- Slowdown in subscriber upgrades.
However, the brokerage said these risks are manageable given Bharti’s stronger execution, wider geographic footprint and more diversified revenue base.