Lights, camera and action! PVR Inox is is expected to stand tall amid subdued performances across the media space. This is as per the latest report by Nuvama Institutional Equities. The multiplex giant is expected to deliver its strongest numbers in eight quarters, while broadcasters like Zee Entertainment and Sun TV brace for softer results. Music label Saregama, meanwhile, faces a quiet spell with limited new content.

Nuvama’s top pick: PVR Inox

The report highlighted that “PVR Inox is likely to report the best results among media companies.” PVR Inox’s revenue is projected to rise 10% year-on-year to Rs 17,780 crore , while EBITDA is set to surge 24% year-on-year to Rs 5,921 crore, as per the estiomates by Nuvama.

Footfalls are expected to climb to 4.4 crore, up from 3.86 crore a year earlier, an eight-quarter high. The improvement comes after a weak Q2FY25, when audience numbers had fallen 20%.

Contrast that with the broadcasters, and the gap is striking. Zee’s EBITDA is forecast to collapse 57% year-on-year, Sun TV is estomated to see a decline of 8%, and Saregama, a sper Nuvama, may rise only modestly.

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PVR Inox is carrying the torch for the sector this quarter. On a pre-Ind-AS basis, the research team estimates an EBITDA of Rs 290 crore and a profit of Rs 140 crore a solid turnaround from the Rs 33.5 crore loss posted in Q1FY26.

The list of titles fueling this performance reads like a blockbuster roster: Saiyaara, Coolie, Mahavatar Narsimha, War 2, They Call Him OG, and Lokah Chapter 1: Chandra. Together, these releases pushed both box office and food-and-beverage sales to new highs.

  • Box office revenue preview: Rs 9,500 crore, up 60% year-on-year.
  • F&B revenue preview: Rs 5,700 crore, up 41%.
  • Ad revenue preview: Rs 1,300 crore, marking a 34% increase year-on-year and a 30% rise quarter-on-quarter.

Average Ticket Price (ATP) is expected to inch up to Rs 262, while Spend per Head (SPH) slipped slightly to Rs 135, a small dip attributed to the Navratri and Shraadh period. Occupancy levels jumped to 28%, compared with 22% in the previous quarter, the report added.

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Nuvama called it an “eight-quarter high” in both footfalls and revenue a sign that India’s box office audience is back in force, and perhaps, back for good.

Zee Entertainment: Heavy spending, weak returns

For Zee, the story seemed more complicated. Revenue is expected to decline slightly to Rs 19,845 crore from Rs 20,007 crore a year earlier. But it’s the profitability that takes the real hit. EBITDA is forecast to plunge to Rs 1,389 crore from Rs 3,232 crore a collapse of nearly 57%.

The report pointed to three culprits: higher content costs, aggressive advertising spends, and one-time expenses for two new regional channels in Bengali and Kannada. Programming and transmission costs alone are up 10%, while advertising and promotion outlays have risen 15%.

And yet, not all is grim. Subscription revenues are projected to rise 3% year-on-year, and Zee5 the company’s digital arm is finally showing signs of stabilization. Digital subscription and ad revenues are both climbing, and losses have narrowed by around 40% sequentially to Rs 65.8 crore, the brokerage note added.

Movies such as Dhadak 2, Bengal Files, and Dashavatar helped boost “Other sales and services” by roughly 60%. But the bleeding in the core advertising business continues. Ad revenue has fallen 14% year-on-year, marking a sixth consecutive quarterly decline. The impact of a weak FMCG ad cycle and GST transition disruptions are still being felt, as per Nuvama.

Overall, EBITDA margins can shrik to just 7%, down from 16.2% last year a compression of nearly 900 basis points, the report added.

Sun TV: Bright lights, dim margins

At Sun TV, the situation sits somewhere between Zee’s strain and PVR’s strength. Revenue for the quarter is expected to remain nearly unchanged at Rs 9,350 crore, while EBITDA is set to fall to Rs 4,984 crore from Rs 5,408 crore last year, a decline of almost 8%, as per the brokerage.

The network’s advertising and broadcasting segment continues to shrink, down 12% year-on-year to roughly Rs 3,000 crore. Subscription revenue has stayed flat, offering little relief, the report added.

However, one standout success keeps Sun TV in the green: the Rajinikanth-led Coolie, which pulled in an estimated Rs 3,300 crore at the box office. The company’s film division, Sun TV Pictures, benefited immensely from that single title, especially since the base quarter had no releases, as per the brokerage’s research.

Still, the report noted that no new films are slated for the next two quarters a pause that could flatten performance in the near term. EBITDA margins have narrowed to 53.3% from 57.9%, though that remains the highest margin among peers.

Saregama: Quiet quarter, small gains

If the broadcasters struggled and PVR soared, Saregama may simply drift. The company’s quarterly revenue is expected to slip to Rs 2,325 crore from Rs 2,418 crore a decline of nearly 4%. EBITDA, however, is expected to inch up 7% to Rs 651 crore, driven mainly by lower content costs and a steady licensing business, the brokerage explained.

Music Licensing and Artist Management revenue rose 8%, offsetting the absence of major new releases. The few bright spots came from regional and independent titles such as Thug Life (Tamil), Mashooqa (Yo Yo Honey Singh), Sajri (Gurdeep Mehndi), and Kokaina (Badshah), as per the analysis.

Video business revenue, by contrast, fell 35% year-on-year, as last year’s base quarter had multiple big launches. On the live events front, activity was minimal apart from a few concerts by Himesh Reshammiya, as per their analysis.

Margins improved to 28% from 25.2%, a modest recovery but hardly the spark the company needs, the brokerage noted.

Sector pulse: Ads weak, theatres resilient

Across the sector, advertising remains the weakest link. Nuvama noted that broadcasters have now endured six consecutive quarters of ad revenue decline, a trend driven by muted FMCG spending and structural shifts in viewership habits. Even so, digital platforms like Zee5 are starting to claw back some ground, suggesting that the broader ad recovery could emerge from OTT, not television.

On the other hand, theatres are in the middle of a quiet resurgence. PVR INOX’s consistent box office growth in consecutive quarters up 24% in Q1FY26 and another 10% this time indicates that premium entertainment formats are pulling audiences back from streaming fatigue. Ad revenue at PVR INOX, up 34% year-on-year, marks its second-best quarter since the pandemic, as per the research.

Analysts’ take and what lies ahead

Nuvama’s analysts Abneesh Roy, Jainam Gosar, Shlok Mehta, and Anchal Jain see PVR INOX as the sector’s clear outperformer. The report cited its “eight-quarter high” in both revenue and footfalls, calling it the “sole bright spot this quarter.”

By contrast, the brokerage warned that Zee’s heavy cost structure and slow ad recovery could continue to weigh on performance through FY26. Sun TV’s movie division may provide intermittent relief, but its core broadcasting business remains stagnant. And Saregama’s subdued content pipeline suggests that any meaningful rebound will depend on the next slate of releases.

In short, the media sector is moving in two speeds i.e. one powered by the box office, the other stuck in the grind of declining ads and costly programming.