Driven by growth in retail, Jio, and oil to chemicals (O2C) businesses, Reliance Industries (RIL) could post 13-14% year-on-year Ebitda growth in the second quarter of this financial year, brokerages have said. Sequentially, growth in earnings before interest, taxes and depreciation & amortisation (Ebitda) is expected to be flat, they said.
In the first quarter, the conglomerate posted its highest-ever quarterly Ebitda and y-o-y Ebitda growth of 36%.
JP Morgan said RIL could report 14% y-o-y growth in consolidated Ebitda, driven by improved O2C margins, which will be supported by a weaker rupee and the telecom tariff hikes from last year.
“We expect Reliance Retail to deliver 10% y-o-y Ebitda growth — contained to some degree by the GST cuts announced in early September. RIL’s Q2FY26 net profit growth is likely to be softer though (JP Morgan estimate of 12%), due to anticipated increases in DDA (depreciation, depletion, and amortisation), interest and minority interest,” it said.
ICICI Securities expects RIL’s consolidated Ebitda to rise by 13% y-o-y and 2% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) and PAT to rise by 8% y-o-y and decline 1% q-o-q.
“RIL is likely to see a sharp increase (10%) in retail segment earnings y-o-y. Jio may deliver 14.2/2.9% y-o-y/q-o-q rise in Ebitda. The O2C segment to improve by 18% y-o-y while q-o-q trends are flattish, with muted margins partly offset by higher throughput,” the brokerage said.
Upstream is likely to show softness y-o-y as slightly lower production and higher government share of profit may dent margins, it said. Axis Capital estimates RIL’s Q2FY26 consolidated revenue at approximately Rs 2,58,200 crore — up 4% q-o-q and up 10% y-o-y — and Ebitda at Rs 44,400 crore, up 4% q-o-q and 14% y-o-y.
“We expect retail to deliver robust growth, partially aided by favourable base, and Jio to gain from healthy subscriber additions, Arpu (average revenue per user) uptick, and growing FWA (fixed wireless access) traction. The O2C Ebitda should rise marginally on better refining performance, though partially offset by some weakness in petchem,” it said.
JM Financial expects RIL’s Ebitda to be up 3.6% sequentially. It said the growth would be led by healthy growth in O2C, retail and digital businesses but partly offset by decline in exploration and production (E&P) business.