SUJAN HAJRA,
CHIEF ECONOMIST, ANAND RATHI SECURITIES
?There is expectation that inflation will soften after the industrial output in September moderated. We expect Reserve Bank of India to hold its key rates steady at its December policy as inflation is likely to ease to 5.5% in the next two months.
RUPA REGE NITSURE,
CHIEF ECONOMIST, BANK OF BARODA
?Sustained high levels of non food prices and rising commodity prices would keep inflation elevated in the remaining part of fiscal year 2011.I expect Reserve Bank of India to hike rates in the next policy review due on Dec 16.?
MADAN SABNAVIS,
CHIEF ECONOMIST, CARE RATINGS
?Inflation is still high, even though it has moderated marginally, I wouldn?t really attribute much comfort in that. Absolute level of prices is not coming down which is definitely a concern. As long as prices remain high, RBI will continue to concentrate on this number while formulating its monetary policy. We can expect some kind of upward revision here (in inflation data).
SUNIL SINHA,
HEAD OF RESEARCH & SENIOR ECONOMIST, CRISIL
?The stickiness in inflation is most worrisome. Within overall inflation prices of food item is a concern. Food inflation is way above comfort level.
SAJJID CHINOY,
ECONOMIST, JPMORGAN CHASE
?We?ve been saying for a long time that inflation is going to remain sticky and that the RBI may not be able to pause for long. All three factors (rising commodity, manufacturing prices and structural changes in food demand) are conspiring to ensure that inflation continues to remain high and sticky. We do expect inflation to abate between November and February on account of a base effect, but that phenomenon is expected to be very fleeting and we expect inflation to tick back up in the second-quarter of next year and remain sticky for much of 2011?
JAY SHANKAR,
CHIEF ECONOMIST, RELIGARE CAPITAL MARKETS
?While primary articles? inflation has come down the reversal in manufactured products inflation may be a cause of concern. Manufactured products? inflation, which has risen from 4.59% to 4.75%is the most sensitive to RBI?s monetary tightening. Inflation is likely to continue to dominate policy makers? mind-space as the predominant risk, even as the threat of global oil and commodity prices? spike keeps knocking at our shores.
ANUBHUTI SAHAY,
ECONOMIST, STANDARD CHARTERED
?Headline inflation around 5.5% by Mar 2011 does not look very unachievable.With this inflation backdrop any rate hike from the central bank looks very improbable to us in this fiscal year.?
SHUBHADA RAO,
CHIEF ECONOMIST, YES BANK
?October wholesale price index is very much on the expected lines. ?Going forward we acknowledge that commodity wide inflation will influence the non-food WPI. We expect the WPI trajectory to slip into Reserve Bank of India?s comfort zone of 6% in the coming months. We estimate inflation to be around 6-6.5% by January which will prompt the central bank to pause its rate hike cycle.?
