The Indian economy is expected to see a turnaround only in the second half of 2009-10 even as an industry survey pegs GDP growth at 5-6 per cent for the year, despite improvement in the outlook.

The CII Business Confidence Index (CII-BCI) improved by 2.4 points for April-September this fiscal compared to the previous six months. “The index improved mainly on higher expectations for the coming six months, raising hope that the recovery may well be around the corner…,” the CII-BCI said.

However, given the severity of the global slowdown, 96 per cent of the respondents in the survey of 374 companies felt it would be only in the second half of the current fiscal and beyond that the economy “would witness a turnaround and begin returning to normal growth”.

The outlook survey ruled out deflation in the economy pegging inflation at about two per cent for the year. As many as 82 per cent of the respondents did not see drop in employment in the next six months dismissing job loss fears.

Under the impact of global downturn, the country’s industrial output in March fell for the second month in a row and contracted by 2.3 per cent, the lowest in 16 years, according to government data released on Tuesday.

After an average nine per cent growth for the past four years, the Indian economy is estimated to have expanded at about seven per cent in the previous fiscal.