162.5% profit growth, Rs 7,189 cr expansion: Is this copper stock still cheap?

The average price for LME copper was $13,324.3 per tonne in the June 2026 quarter, a rise of 40% y-o-y. Demand for copper on a global basis has been driven by a shift towards clean energy technology, digital infrastructure, electric mobility, AI data centres and advanced manufacturing sectors, among other industries.  LME price of copper is currently $ 14,273 per tonne.

The Hindustan Copper stock was down 7.3% to Rs 531.75 on Tuesday, with the central government looking to sell up to 6% stake in the company via an offer-for-sale (OFS) at a floor price of Rs 514. The central government had a 66.15% stake in Hindustan Copper at the end of the first quarter of FY27.

However, over the past one year the stock was an outperformer in tune with the global trend of strong investor interest in non-ferrous stocks – it has gained nearly 125% as compared to a 4.9% decline in the Sensex. The stock had reached a 52-week high of Rs 759.2 on 29 January, 2026.

The 0.12% Reality: India’s Copper Dependency

Hindustan Copper has not yet published its annual report for FY26.  In its corporate presentation prior to this OFS, the PSU has highlighted 27,421 tonne metal in concentrate in FY26, a seven-year production high, and a 9% y-o-y growth.  Also, it had 3.6 million tonnes of copper ore production for FY26, a growth of 6% y-o-y.

In its annual report for FY25, Hindustan Copper has also highlighted India has very limited copper ore reserves contributing about 0.2% of world copper reserves. Mine production is only 0.12% of world’s production, whereas refined copper production is about 2% of world’s production.

The PSU has also highlighted copper demand in the country is expected to grow significantly, given 500 GW target for renewable energy by 2032 and accelerated growth in electric vehicles, among other projects being implemented in the country.

Hence the country is heavily dependent on imported copper. HCL holds around two-fifth of the copper ore reserves and resources in India with an average grade of 0.95%.

For perspective, Australia-based BHP Group – one of the biggest miners and producers of copper products worldwide- reported copper production of nearly 1.95 million tonnes, a decline of 3% y-o-y basis.

Q1FY27 Earnings: Decoding the 162.5% Profit Surge

Hindustan Copper has been a direct beneficiary of higher LME prices of copper. Its consolidated revenue from operations grew 81.4% y-o-y to Rs 936.5 crore in the first quarter of FY27, and its net profit also grew 162.5% y-o-y to Rs 352.6 crore.

For FY 26 too, its consolidated revenue from operations grew 48.6% y-o-y to Rs 3077.9 crore, while its net profit grew 97% y-o-y to Rs 920.6 crore.

The company had declared a dividend of Rs 2.86 per share for FY26. An equity share of the PSU has a face value of Rs 5.

Expansion plans of Hindustan Copper

Hindustan Copper in late April 2026, as part of its ‘Vision 2030’ had announced a capital expenditure of Rs 7,188.6 crore up to FY30. This would result in its ore production reaching 12.2 million tonnes by FY30, and its net profit would reach Rs 1,568 crore in FY30, from Rs 920.7 crore in FY26.

Assuming the company reaches its FY30 targets and there is also no dilution in its equity capital, the stock would trade FY30 earnings at a P/E of nearly 32.

Production trends at Hindustan Copper

No doubt, Hindustan Copper is attempting to scale up its mining activities and production of finished copper products over the next few years. However, it will still only be a small fraction of the production volumes of global heavyweights like BHP Group and Freeport-McMoRan.

The Valuation Disconnect: Defending a 42.7 P/E Premium

Copper prices tend to be volatile and they respond almost instantly to any changes in the growth outlook of the global economy. For instance, LME copper prices were at $ 13,300 per tonne levels in the first week of January, 2026, and had weakened to $ 12,140 per tonne by end March, 2026. LME price of copper is currently $ 14,273 per tonne.

However, demand for copper from user industries like clean energy and AI data centres is expected to remain strong over the next few years.

For perspective, we compared the valuations of Hindustan Copper stock as compared to its global counterparts.

Valuations of Hindustan Copper versus global players

Hindustan Copper’s level of operations is very small compared to leading global players in copper mining and production of various copper products. And Hindustan Copper stock trades at a premium to the leading global players in the copper business.

No doubt, domestic copper demand is expected to remain strong from various user industries like electric vehicles and AI data centres, over the next few years. However, the Hindustan Copper stock looks relatively expensive when compared to its peers.

Readers could put Hindustan Copper on their watch list of stocks for 2026 , and see if the performance matches expectations, going forward.

Disclaimer:

Amriteshwar Mathur is a financial journalist with over 20 years of experience.

Disclosure: The writer and his family have no shareholding in any of the stocks mentioned in the article.

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