1. PMEAC member Rathin Roy questions India’s growth projections by IMF, World Bank

PMEAC member Rathin Roy questions India’s growth projections by IMF, World Bank

Noted economist and member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) Rathin Roy today dismissed lowering of India's growth projections by the IMF and the World Bank, saying they often go 'wrong'.

By: | New Delhi | Updated: October 11, 2017 6:29 PM
Rathin Roy, Rathin Roy economist, Rathin Roy india growth, World Bank, IMF, India economic growth, Bibek Debroy Noted economist and member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister Rathin Roy today dismissed lowering of India’s growth projections by the IMF and the World Bank.

 

Noted economist and member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) Rathin Roy today dismissed lowering of India’s growth projections by the IMF and the World Bank, saying they often go ‘wrong’.
While the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered India’s growth forecast for the current fiscal by 0.5 percentage points to 6.7 per cent, the World Bank has pegged economic expansion at 7 per cent, down from 7.2 per cent projected earlier. The Asian Development Bank too lowered India’s current fiscal growth to 7 per cent from 7.4 per cent, while RBI cut economic growth forecast to 6.7 per cent from earlier projection of 7.3 per cent.

“IMF’s growth projections are 80 per cent wrong…World Bank’s growth projections are 65 per cent wrong,” he said in a media interaction when asked to comment on lowering of growth projections by international multilateral lending agencies. While the council has been dismissive of projections of multi-lateral lending agencies, the government does not miss an opportunity to tom-tom improvement in ease of doing business ranking by World Bank and other such improvement in indices. Roy, who is also director of economic think tank NIPFP, however, said the council will examine causes of slowdown.
India’s economic growth slipped to a three-year low of 5.7 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal.

Replying queries at the same media interaction, Niti Aayog member and Chairman of the Council Bibek Debroy said “whether we like it or not we don’t have good data on employment”. “In a country like India, you cannot get good data on employment and jobs from enterprise surveys. The labour bureau enterprise surveys covers less than 1.5 per cent of total employment,” Debroy said. Noting that we can get data on unemployment and employment in India is through household surveys, he said the last NSSO household survey was out in 2011-12 and the next results of NSSO household surveys will not be available till 2018.

  1. Jayesh Sheth
    Oct 12, 2017 at 9:03 am
    Fiscal deficit is reducing due to disinvestment of shares,cut in subsidy,but economice growth is not there so i thing is noted that they force to new job.And new job will come onlt for new private investment and for that to do a lot of thing.otherwise fiscal deficit is low agree,but economic growth is not there and even effect of shortfall of monsoon should also considered with globel situation.Because if globel situation worsen then oil lprice should also a worry.
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      ashoksinghania
      Oct 12, 2017 at 2:56 am
      .That is reason economy is going down we have been continuously reducing fiscal defecit for last five years. Ie we are taxing more and spending less.Cash has come down from 12 to 9 which was proudly announced by our Bhola pm which I have term as come bull hit me moment for Narendra Modi. Moreover state defecit has gone up from 1.5 to3 of GDP. Net financial asset are rapidly coming down. Moreover their is crr. Ratio which is currently 4 .hope wisdom prevails at top . Arvind ji will do review on above four parameters during two period and suggest course correction to our beloved prime minister. Otherwise Modi go down as not so good pm. In Indian history. If Modi doesn't listen my only hope is export go up. FOR DETAILS PEOPLE CAN READ NEW ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE BLOG BY WARREN MOSLER
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        ashoksinghania
        Oct 12, 2017 at 2:51 am
        Cash during vajapee era was whopping 30 of GDP now it is fallen to 9 .govt has front loader expenditure of four lakh crore ie 90 of fiscal defecit hence crises is not visible currently. During vajapee period export went up in last two years. Marius treaty and parti RY notes were other two reason which brought down fiscal defecit to 4.3. issue is how we acheive growth when their is current account defecit . Same has happen during upa two. Only way we can have growth is by increasing fiscal defecit.but we are struck in gold standard era.fiscal defecit of 3 and debt at 60 gdp are norms for European nation or indian estate Who don't have their own currency.Currency issuing nation are not tax constraint. Growth is dependent on four parameters that can be term as net financial asset 1)cash2) reserve money3)fiscal defecit(spending minus taxes)4) net exports( current account surPLUS can be term as net financial ASSET
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          rajesh kulkarni
          Oct 11, 2017 at 9:15 pm
          So, this Rathin Roy is thrashing IMF projections ? Will he do the same about RBI projections ? The mode of this government is to shoot the messenger who brings bad news but accurate news. This PM EAC will achieve nothing - because we sent out world class economists like Dr.Raghuram Rajan unceremoniously and we will get the jholna bag economists from the Sangh like Dr.Swamy, Gurumurthy S who are all mere glorified accountants. The country seems to be doomed !
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