By (Mrs) Amb Narinder Chauhan

Rishi Sunak has emerged as the frontrunner to succeed Boris Johnson as Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister, although the contest has a long way to go. Sunak has won the first two rounds of votes of Party MPs but faces opposition from the Boris Johnson camp who accuse the former Chancellor of treachery for helping to trigger the PM’s downfall when he announced his resignation from the cabinet.

He remains in the lead with 101 votes in the second round on 14 July-up from 88 in the first, while former defence secretary Penny Mordaunt and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss also gained receiving 83 and 64 respectively. The real action for votes has therefore started and the inevitable wheeling and dealing for the spoils of government office to be divided under a new leader.

The series of votes by Party MPs will continue until just two candidates remain. At that point there will be a ballot of the wider Conservative Party membership to select the winner. On 12 July nominations closed for candidates with each needing the backing of 20 MPs; Sajid Javid and Rehman Chishti, for instance, failed and withdrew. The first round of voting was on 13 July where candidates with fewer than 30 votes were eliminated: former Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt and new Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi were among who got eliminated. On 14 July, candidates with the fewest votes were eliminated and Sunak took the lead. From 18-20 July successive rounds of voting will take place until two candidates remain. During July/August the final two candidates will face Party members for elections around the country. On 5 September the new PM is expected to be announced.

Sunak’s bid to replace Johnson has attracted heavyweight support from former cabinet colleagues, and he is pitching himself as someone who would not cut taxes until inflation is under control, unlike most of his rivals. He became Chancellor in February 2020 when Sajid Wajid left the post because of a power struggle with PM. Within weeks of taking over, Sunak had to steer the UK economy as the pandemic and its lockdown began. When Chancellor Sunak pledged to do ‘whatever it takes’ to help people through the pandemic-and unveiled support worth Pound 350bn-his personal poll ratings went through the roof.

Meanwhile, the country has continued to be buffeted by stormy economic weather, and in April 2022 the teetotaler Sunak had to deal with the fallout of being fined for breaking lockdown rules in June 2020. Doubts were also raised whether he had grasped the scale of the inflationary squeeze on the struggling households. During the same time, the finances of Sunak and his family came under intense scrutiny, as also the tax affairs of his Indian Infosys heiress wife Akshata Murty. She later announced she would start paying UK tax on her overseas earnings to relieve political pressure on her husband. Sunak is even rumoured to have been listed as a beneficiary of tax haven trusts in the British Virgin Islands and Cayman Islands in 2020. Sunak’s side said they ‘did not recognise’ the claims. Sunak whose parents are of Indian origin from east Africa, is thought to be one of the richest MPs, but he has not made his worth public.

Sunak was a vocal supporter of Johnson first, but resigned saying he felt his own approach to the economy was ‘fundamentally too different’ to that of the PM. He had campaigned for BREXIT referendum to make Britain ‘freer, fairer and more prosperous.’ He said changing immigration rules was another key reason, appropriate immigration can benefit the country with controls at the borders. He voted for former PM Theresa May’s Brexit deal the three times it was put to parliament. Sunak was rewarded for his support of Boris Johnson with a promotion in July 2019 from local government minister to chief secretary to the treasury. It would be poetic justice if an Indian origin person is elected to lead UK that had ruled India for close to 200 years.

The race will be closely watched as frontrunners in the past have tended to stumble in such contests. Sunak’s closest contender is Penny Mordaunt, also a Brexiteer, and a grassroots favorite. She also rose through the ranks but backed Johnson’s rival Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 leadership contest and has not served in cabinet since. Her former colleagues are critical of her for ‘not mastering detail’. Sunak’s camp has criticized her as economic illiterate; Truss doubts her suitability for the highest office and one who lacks experience. She needs support of 40 more Party MPs to reach the final head-to-head. Liz Truss became the UK’s second female foreign secretary last year, at the age of 46. When Russia invaded Ukraine, she took a hard line, insisting all Russian forces should be driven from the country. However, having trumped her to number 2 position, focus has shifted to Mordaunt.

Whoever wins the race to be the next PM, it will be the most diverse major party leadership contest in UK history. Four of the eight MPs who made it through the first round of voting were women, and four came from ethnic minority backgrounds. In a matter of weeks, the Party could be electing only the third national leader from an ethnic minority in Western Europe (after former half Indian Irish PM Leo Varadkar, and the half Indian Portuguese PM Antonio Costa). This is quite a turnaround for a Party that was historically seen as ‘white’, but it did not happen by accident. It is said to be largely the product of a 17 yearlong effort to increase the diversity of MPs launched by former leader David Cameron; when he took over the Party had only two ethnic minority MPs in 2005, both men.

Brushing aside Party opposition, Cameroon is said to have created an A list of diverse candidates for winnable seats, to make the party more representative of modern Britain. The fact that many have arisen rapidly through the ranks into cabinet positions and are now leadership contenders, is no accident either; he got high-flying people from diverse backgrounds. There is an increasing sense that their ‘time has come’, they are not just seeing themselves as the right people, they are being seen by colleagues as ‘right for the moment’.

The Conservatives still lag labor party in ethnic representation: a record breaking 41 black, Asian and minority ethnic labor Party MPs were elected in 2019, and there are now more female Labor MPs than men for the first time. Ethnic minority voters still overwhelmingly vote labor. The Conservatives have gained a little ground since 2010, winning support of 20% of black and minority ethnic voters in 2019. That support may grow with a black or Asian Conservative PM.

But many argue the Conservatives have harmed race relations in UK, citing Windrush scandal, plans to deport illegal immigrants to Rwanda, and an ongoing investigation into Islamophobia in the party. There have been allegations of ‘denial’ about systemic racial prejudice within the law enforcement agencies and justice system. It has been alleged that the ethnic minority people are mere fronts for so-called white supremacy and are able to introduce policies that white leaders would not be able to get away with.

There is also the question of class. The current leadership race may be diverse in gender and ethnicity, but most are well off, privately educated and from comfortable middle-class backgrounds. It is alleged that what is missing are people from backgrounds that many people would identify with and are considered ordinary.

There’s no denying that the UK Parliament is now more visibly representative of the country-and this contest reflects that evolution and having a colored PM will be an important milestone in British politics. But the question of representation is a thorny and complex one. Eventually, the country goes into general elections in 2025. Some might like to see someone at the helm who looks like them and feel more invested in the government of the day; others might be put off by wealth, private education, an elite university degree-or any other experience they can’t relate to. Still others might see no need for a PM to have a similar background to them.

Whoever wins the race will be drawing from all different parts of their identity and life story to determine what policies to pursue in office.

(Author is former Indian Ambassador to the region. Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited).