India’s steel sector enters 2026 with a supportive global backdrop as China’s output slows and domestic demand remains steady. In its latest India Steel Sector update, Nomura believes India is well placed in this environment. Strong infrastructure spending, early signs of manufacturing pickup, and a healthier demand pipeline should support volumes and spreads through FY26. The brokerage maintained Buy ratings on Tata Steel, JSW Steel, and Jindal Steel, calling them beneficiaries of a tighter global supply setup. “China’s moderation supports regional prices while India’s demand remains resilient,” Nomura said. Here are Nomura’s top picks in the steel sector and target prices.
Nomura on Jindal Steel: ‘Buy’
Nomura kept its Buy rating on Jindal Steel, assigning a target price of Rs 1,150, implying roughly 8% upside. The brokerage uses a 7.0x one-year forward EV/EBITDA multiple on steady-state FY28 EBITDA to arrive at its valuation. It expects stable spreads, strong operating leverage, and improving demand visibility to support earnings over the next two years. Key risks include weaker domestic demand, any delays in expansion projects, and volatility in steel spreads.
Nomura on JSW Steel: ‘Buy’
JSW Steel remains one of Nomura’s preferred picks with a target price of Rs 1,300, indicating about 11% upside. Nomura values JSW at 8.0x forward EV/EBITDA based on its December 2027 steady-state EBITDA estimate. It noted JSW’s strong market positioning, balance sheet flexibility, and multi-location capacity profile as positives. The brokerage noted that commissioning progress at expansion sites, particularly Dolvi, must remain on track. Risks include higher Chinese exports, sharp swings in margins, and project cost overruns.
Nomura on Tata Steel: ‘Buy’
Nomura maintained a Buy call on Tata Steel, setting a target price of Rs 215, implying a potential 25% upside. The brokerage applied a 6.9x forward EV/EBITDA multiple on its December 2027 steady-state EBITDA assumptions. It expects Tata Steel to benefit from strong Indian demand, greater raw material security, and better spread resilience versus regional peers. Risks include delays in subsidiary expansion, prolonged elevation in iron ore prices, and weaker-than-expected spreads.
Nomura on steel market trends: China easing, India holding firm
Nomura said China’s steel industry remains under pressure due to weak property construction and policy restrictions aimed at curbing volume-driven production. The brokerage noted that China’s crude steel output has declined steadily since April, and October’s 12% drop signals deeper structural weakness. Net exports have also started to pull back, softening their drag on Asian steel prices. In contrast, India’s demand environment remains encouraging. Infrastructure activity, public capex, and manufacturing-led consumption continue to provide stability through FY26. Nomura believes the combination of firmer domestic demand and easing Chinese pressure should support pricing and margins for Indian producers.