Jefferies has retained its Buy stance on Bajaj Finance, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), and Jindal Stainless, projecting up to 31 per cent upside potential, while its latest monthly tracker on life insurers signals improving momentum in premium growth led by SBI Life and Max Life.
The brokerage said the September quarter earnings underline a shift toward quality-led growth across financials, energy, and metals, while early October data in insurance shows “encouraging sequential recovery after two soft months.”
Jefferies on Bajaj Finance: ‘Buy’
Jefferies maintained its Buy rating on Bajaj Finance, noting that second-quarter profit came in ahead of estimates even as growth moderated slightly. Consolidated profit rose 23 per cent year-on-year to Rs 4,900 crore, aided by higher net interest income and controlled credit costs. They have set a target price of RS xxx, implying 17% upside.
Assets under management (AUM) climbed 24 per cent YoY to Rs 2.8 lakh crore, while disbursements increased 8 per cent. The brokerage said a temporary slowdown in SME and housing portfolios led management to trim FY26 growth guidance to 22–23 per cent from 23–24 per cent earlier.
“Profitability remains robust with stable spreads and improving quality metrics,” Jefferies noted, adding that gross NPA stood at 1.2 per cent, up only marginally from the previous quarter. Net interest margins and fee income both exceeded forecasts, driving a 3 per cent pre-provision operating profit beat versus expectations.
The brokerage sees 23 per cent CAGR in profit over FY25–28, citing strong funding access and disciplined underwriting. Risks include competition from banks in consumer finance and a slower ramp-up in digital partnerships.
Jefferies on ONGC: ‘Buy’
Jefferies reaffirmed its Buy call on Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) with a target price of Rs 330, implying about 31 per cent upside from the current levels.
The brokerage said September-quarter consolidated EBITDA and PAT were broadly in line with expectations, while headline numbers benefited from steady realisations and lower tax outgo. Consolidated EBITDA rose 27 per cent year-on-year to Rs 17,700 crore, aided by stronger downstream performance at HPCL. PAT (net of minority interest) was up 5 per cent YoY.
Crude oil production stood at 5.19 million tonnes, down 1 per cent sequentially, while gas output rose 1 per cent QoQ to 5.03 billion cubic metres. ONGC’s realisations improved 2 per cent QoQ, reflecting higher oil prices and a stable domestic gas price regime.
The brokerage said near-term focus remains on output recovery from the KG Basin and ongoing redevelopment at Mumbai High. “Consolidated earnings remain steady despite production softness, supported by lower costs and healthy downstream contribution,” Jefferies said.
Analyst Bhaskar Chakraborty added that valuation remains compelling given the improving balance between upstream and refining profitability.
Jefferies on Jindal Stainless: ‘Buy’
Jefferies also reiterated its Buy rating on Jindal Stainless (JSL) with a target price of Rs 900, offering around 23 per cent upside from the current levels.
The September quarter delivered a clear earnings beat, with EBITDA up 17 per cent YoY and 7 per cent ahead of Jefferies’ estimate. Revenue growth was led by 15 per cent YoY volume expansion, driven by strong demand from autos, white goods, and metro rail projects.
EBITDA per tonne improved 2 per cent QoQ to Rs 21,000, while PAT rose 30 per cent YoY, surpassing forecasts by 11 per cent. Net debt declined 6 per cent QoQ to Rs 3,650 crore, improving leverage metrics.
Jefferies said export growth turned positive for the first time in six quarters, aided by restocking in Europe and ASEAN markets. “Volume recovery across industrial and infrastructure segments provides continued support for earnings,” the note said.
Management guidance indicates sustained utilisation near 90 per cent, with incremental contribution expected from brownfield expansion in Jajpur and downstream finishing lines.