The Supreme Court’s decision to allow the government to reconsider Vodafone Idea’s adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues has given the beleaguered telecom operator a slim window to strengthen its footing, analysts said.
Experts added that the verdict could help the company unlock long-pending bank funding, sustain network investments, and slow its pace of subscriber losses — marking a potential turning point in its long and fragile turnaround journey.
Multiple brokerage reports agreed that the ruling could ease one of Vodafone Idea’s biggest constraints — access to fresh capital. The company has been struggling to finalise its `25,000-crore debt raise, which in turn has limited its `50,000–55,000-crore capex programme.
Analysts from Citi noted that AGR relief could “provide much-needed confidence to banks to extend credit,” helping restore the sustainability of network investments that have been delayed for months. This would, in turn, allow the operator to continue expanding coverage and quality, particularly in 4G, while preparing for more — albeit selective — 5G rollouts.
Sustained capex is seen as central to Vodafone Idea’s ability to retain customers and protect revenue share in an intensely competitive market dominated by Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio.
Analysts from both Motilal Oswal and Citi pointed out that with funding visibility improving, the company will be better placed to compete on network quality and customer experience, potentially stemming churn and curbing further market share loss.
“A significant relief for Vi, followed by a debt raise, could improve its competitiveness at least in the near to medium term, potentially impacting the pace of market share gains,” analysts from Motilal Oswal noted.
However, they also cautioned that long-term recovery still depends on tariff rationalisation and moderating competitive intensity — areas where regulatory and market cooperation will remain key.
Analysts from Emkay pointed out that while the AGR issue is only one part of the problem — given Vodafone Idea’s overall government debt of nearly ₹1.9 trillion, including spectrum liabilities — the verdict gives the government room to design a structured solvency plan. Such a move, the brokerage said, could secure Vodafone Idea’s survival and uphold the “three-plus-one” structure that policymakers have repeatedly endorsed for India’s telecom sector.
The ruling also carries a positive read-through for Indus Towers, Vodafone Idea’s key network partner. Analysts expect reduced tenancy and receivables risk, improving visibility on cash flows and dividends. Collectively, the relief could stabilise the telecom ecosystem — not by rewriting Vodafone Idea’s fortunes overnight, but by giving it the breathing space to compete again.