As we get set to welcome the new year in just a week’s time, the India-Russia trade dynamics is seeing a slow rewiring. While November surged 4% in November, hitting five-month high, A Rubix report on Russia noted that India’s Crude oil imports from Russia is expected to face a sharp drop from December 2025.
The volume is expected to decline as Indian refiners pivot toward suppliers in the Middle East, Latin America, West Africa, Canada and the US. In H1 FY26 (April–September), India’s crude imports from Russia declined 14% year-on-year to about $23.1 billion. On the other hand import from the US saw a rise. In October 2025, the US emerged as India’s fourth-largest crude supplier, overtaking the UAE, with deliveries of about 647,000 bpd.
Russian oil flows to India may dip but unlikely to vanish: Report
The report however noted that Russian crude volumes shipped to India have averaged 1.6–1.8 million barrels per day, but “they are unlikely to disappear completely.” It added that Russia’s role in India’s oil imports could shift significantly, depending on whether the US follows through on its threat of imposing tariffs of up to 500% on buyers of Russian energy, or if any future Russia–Ukraine peace agreement alters the sanctions landscape.
Kpler expects Russian crude supplies to India to gradually pick up again in early 2026, although these flows are likely to be routed through intermediaries and more complex trade channels, rather than direct purchases.
India–Russia trade expands beyond energy but trade deficit widens
Beyond energy, India and Russia are expanding their economic engagement across other sectors. Bilateral goods trade grew at a staggering 70% compound annual growth rate between FY21 and FY25, reaching $68.7 billion in the last fiscal year. However, the surge has been highly imbalanced.
India’s trade deficit with Russia widened nearly 20 times, touching $ 58.9 billion in FY2025, as energy imports far outpaced exports.
Energy products continue to dominate the relationship, with crude oil, petroleum products and coal accounting for 89% of India’s imports from Russia.
On the export side, India’s basket is evolving gradually. Exports of computers and laptops rose from negligible levels in FY2021 to 11% of India’s total exports to Russia by FY2025, indicating early signs of diversification, even as trade remains overwhelmingly energy-led.
Defence cooperation remains a central pillar of ties. India has produced over 200 Su-30MKI fighter jets under licence at HAL’s Nashik facility. The BrahMos Aerospace joint venture continues, with India holding a 50.5% stake. Discussions are underway on Su-57E stealth fighters, co-development of engines for unmanned combat aircraft, an advanced BrahMos variant, and the purchase of additional S-400 air defence systems worth $1.2 billion