Navigating Uncertainty: Geopolitical Implications of Leadership Transition in Iran

By Rashi Randev

As Iran mourns the death of President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, the world is closely watching the reverberations and implications on the geopolitics of the region. For a nation grappling with profound challenges and an ageing Supreme Leader, the President’s death raises a crucial existential question: Who will carry forward the revolution? 

Raisi passed away at a fragile moment for a revolutionary regime that has become increasingly xenophobic, paranoid, and inflexible. His legacy includes a significant decline in Iran’s relations with the West, due to unsuccessful attempts to renegotiate the 2015 nuclear agreement, closer military ties with Russia, and dangerous reciprocal hostilities with Israel.

As president, Raisi held a position near the top of Iran’s unique ruling system, significantly influencing the country’s politics, society, economy, and foreign relations. His sudden death elevates First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, formerly the head of a major state enterprise overseen by the Supreme Leader, to take over the president’s duties. This will also trigger new elections in 50 days, necessitating swift and uncharacteristic improvisation by a regime that has grown increasingly rigid and unpopular as it nears its 50th anniversary.

Iran-Israel Conundrum 

The unfortunate incident that took place in the northwest region of  Iran, comes at a very critical time as far as the West Asia region is concerned; since past seven months Israel has waged a war on Gaza that was a retaliation triggered by Hamas attack on Israel, and Tehran has been repeatedly indicted of backing and sponsoring Hezbollah in opening the Lebanon front against Tel Aviv. Israel has long regarded Iran as its primary threat due to Tehran’s contentious nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and support for militant groups dedicated to Israel’s destruction. Iran positions itself as the main supporter of Palestinian resistance against Israeli control, frequently advocating for Israel’s elimination. Raisi, considered a protégé and potential successor to Khamenei, recently condemned Israel, stating, “the Zionist Israeli regime has been oppressing the people of Palestine for 75 years.”

A major escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran came last month, but Raisi’s death has the possibility to alter the Israel-Iran conundrum, as he supported proxy groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, which are hostile towards Israel. Changes in Iran’s leadership could shift regional dynamics, including Iran’s relationships with Israel and other Middle Eastern countries. Iran’s adversaries, such as the U.S., Israel, and Saudi Arabia, might consider strengthening their security alliances to counter Iran. 

US-Iran Relations

The past few years have witnessed critical developments in US-Iran relations over Tehran’s nuclear ambition. In the year 2018, former US President Donald Trump retracted from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action –Popularly known as Iran Nuclear Deal–and reinstated punitive sanctions on Tehran and this prompted Iran to violate the agreement’s nuclear limits. It was only when Raisi took over in 2021, he took a hard stance in negotiations, citing a chance to win a comprehensive relief from US sanctions in return for modest curbs on its increasingly advanced technology. The ongoing conflict in Gaza has added further complexity to U.S.-Iran relations, with the Biden administration striving to de-escalate the situation due to the increasing human toll. 

Iran’s influence extends beyond the Middle East, particularly regarding its nuclear program. The U.S. and Western countries suspect Iran of aiming to develop nuclear weapons, leading to heightened tensions and the U.S. withdrawal from a nuclear agreement in 2018. Iran’s uranium enrichment to 60% purity has intensified concerns about its nuclear goals. Reports indicate that senior officials from the Biden administration have been involved in indirect negotiations with Iranian representatives to prevent the escalation of regional attacks. The death of Raisi can jeopardize these efforts to maintain a fragile peace. Besides Raisi, another prominent contender was Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, rarely seen in public but highly influential behind the scenes and sanctioned by the United States. Khamenei has long aimed to position Mojtaba as his successor and with Raisi’s death, the succession dynamics have changed and consequently, the attention has now shifted back to Mojtaba.

Will This Provoke a Counter Revolution?

It is possible, though unlikely, that the public will capitalize on the current disarray to rise against the leadership. Many Iranian insiders deem this improbable, partly because many Iranians feel they are still enduring the repercussions of the 1979 revolution, which began as a widespread movement but was taken over by charismatic religious figures. 

Raisi’s presidency was characterized by a suppression of reformist voices and civil society activists. His death might invigorate the reformist movement, offering a chance for moderate politicians to advocate for greater political freedoms and reforms. However, the conservative establishment maintains a strong grip on power, and any substantial change will depend on the overall political climate and the Supreme Leader’s position. The most likely scenario is that there will be no significant change in the near term. Almost equally likely is the emergence of a political figure from within the government who promises reform, improved governance, and economic revitalization. However, the extent of actual change such a figure could bring remains uncertain. 

Elected with the lowest voter turnout in Iranian presidential election history, Raisi lacked the popular mandate that his predecessor Rouhani had. Although the sudden death of a president is typically significant, Raisi, despite being viewed as a potential Supreme Leader, lacked both political support and a clear political vision.

Iran’s policies, both foreign and domestic, are unlikely to change significantly; the core elements of Iranian foreign policy, such as the “axis of resistance” strategy, efforts to strengthen ties with China and Russia, and increased regional dialogue, will remain consistent. However, Iran is deeply unsettled about the future as Raisi’s successor will need to address significant social and economic discontent, regional instability and tension, and, in the long term, the future of the Islamic Republic. For both the regime’s supporters and its dissidents, Raisi’s death raises an existential question: Who will lead Iran, especially with Ayatollah Khamenei’s death looming?

The author is a geopolitical analyst and a doctoral candidate at the centre of Canadian, US and Latin American Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University.

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