Navigating Turbulent Waters: Analysing the Evolving Dynamics of UK-China Relations and Its Impact on Soft Power, Trade, and Diplomacy

By Dr Yukteshwar Kumar

If we examine India’s soft power, encompassing Bollywood, Cricket, and Yoga, as key cultural influences, we can draw a parallel to Britain’s soft power, centred around Football, the English language, and British education, which magnetize a substantial number of Chinese individuals to the UK (United Kingdom). However, Britain is faced with a delicate balance, aiming to sustain the considerable revenue generated from Chinese international students and tourists while navigating recent complexities in the UK-China relationship.

In recent times, the relationship between the UK and China has encountered considerable challenges, leading to heightened tensions and a noticeable drift from the earlier robust ties, especially during the golden period around 2014-15. The evolving dynamics now encompass a range of issues, notably geopolitical disparities. Key concerns involve China’s use of force in the Taiwan region and its militarization of disputed islands in the South China Sea.

The implementation of the national security law in Hong Kong by China in 2020 has raised significant concerns in the UK, challenging the established ‘one country, two systems’ principle, which had been in effect since Hong Kong’s handover from British to Chinese sovereignty in 1997. The UK has consistently voiced its criticisms regarding China’s human rights record, focusing particularly on the treatment of Uyghur Muslims and other minorities in Xinjiang and Tibet. Furthermore, anxieties concerning cybersecurity risks associated with Chinese companies, notably Huawei’s involvement in 5G infrastructure development, have been expressed by the UK.

The imposition of sanctions by China on various UK citizens in 2021 has further strained relations between the two nations. These ongoing challenges have significantly impacted the dynamics of the UK-China relationship, prompting serious contemplation regarding the prospects of future engagement and cooperation.

The evolving position of the British government towards China is influenced by concerns related to national security and human rights, as well as a recognition of the importance of trade relations for mutual economic benefit between both nations.

In March of 2023, the UK government released an updated iteration of the 2021 integrated review titled “Integrated Review Refresh 2023: Addressing an Unpredictable World with Increasing Challenges.” In this update, the government emphasized China’s substantial and extensive impact on the UK, describing it as a “defining challenge of this era.” The refresh outlined that the UK’s approach to China was being adjusted in response to two pivotal factors that had evolved since the 2021 review:

Firstly, the growing influence of China on global matters, expected to continue expanding and affecting both the world and the UK. China’s enduring membership in the UN Security Council, its significant share of the global economy (exceeding 18%), substantial investments in developing nations, and its dual role as the foremost investor in sustainable energy and a major carbon emitter all contribute to its significance. The government emphasized that China’s decisions, especially regarding climate change, global health, and pandemic readiness, carry substantial weight on a global scale.

Secondly, there were reservations about the actions and intentions of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), particularly its deepening connections with Russia, notably after the Ukraine conflict, its disregard for human rights and international commitments, its militarization of disputed islands in the South China Sea, and its refusal to disavow the use of force concerning Taiwan. These concerns prompted the British government to reassess its stance on China. The UK government also highlighted China’s economic coercion, espionage activities, and interference in the UK.

Despite these challenges, the UK government expressed a preference for a collaborative and understanding relationship with China, aiming to promote predictability and stability for the greater global good. However, it acknowledged that achieving this desired relationship would be challenging if trends towards increased authoritarianism and assertiveness on the global stage persist.

The UK outlined a three-pronged approach in its policy towards China, as articulated by British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly during his visit to China in August 2023 (despite opposition from several of his own colleagues from the Conservative party, including former PM Liz Truss, who recently visited Taiwan and is keen on strengthening Britain’s relationship with Taiwan).

1. Protect: Strengthening national security measures in areas where CCP actions pose threats to the UK’s populace, prosperity, and security. This involves safeguarding the economy, democratic freedoms, critical infrastructure, supply chains, and strategic advantages in science and technology. Emphasis is placed on cybersecurity and defensive capabilities while fortifying protections for academic freedom and university research.

2. Align: Deepening cooperation and alignment with key allies and partners to influence the broader strategic environment collectively. The UK aims to encourage China to contribute transparently and proportionately to financial stability and economic development. The commitment is to enhance collective security, compete when necessary, and oppose actions that undermine international law, human rights, or create dependencies.

3. Engage: Directly engaging with China through bilateral channels and international forums, striving to maintain open, constructive, predictable, and stable relations that mirror China’s global importance. The belief is in the potential advantages of a positive trade and investment relationship with China while safeguarding critical supply chains and national security.

In addition to the refresh, the government has announced a doubling of funding for its ‘China capabilities program’ for 2024/25, aiming to enhance skills and knowledge among government staff concerning China. This includes training on economic and military policy as well as Mandarin language proficiency. It’s important to note that the British government still emphasizes Mandarin education in schools and universities. The Mandarin Excellence Programme (MEP), a unique and intensive language initiative initiated by the British government in 2016, has seen substantial investment. It provides financial support and assistance to secondary schools across England. Over the years, this program has enabled numerous students in England to master Mandarin Chinese through a variety of methods such as classroom instruction, self-guided learning, focused study, and immersive cultural experiences.

Hong Kong, Human Rights, and Economic Trade are the three major issues of the UK-China relationship.

Human Rights:

The UK consistently expresses concern over China’s human rights record. China was marked a “priority” country in the 2021 human rights and democracy report. It highlighted deteriorating human rights, including abuses in Xinjiang and restrictions on media, religion, LGBT+ rights, and civil society. Key concerns revolved around Uyghur Muslims’ treatment, extensive surveillance, media restrictions, rule of law, and religious freedom infringements. Liz Truss, former UK Prime Minister, is a vocal critic of China, emphasized during her recent visit to Taiwan. Several Tory MPs critical of China were barred from entering China and Hong Kong in 2021.

Trade:

As of June 2023, China is the UK’s fourth-largest trading partner, contributing to 6.5% of total UK trade in 2022. Trade in 2022 amounted to £111 billion, with UK exports at £37.6 billion and imports at £73.4 billion. Exports increased by 37.7%, and imports rose by 10.4% compared to 2021.

Hong Kong:

The UK-China relationship regarding Hong Kong is complex, focusing on human rights and preserving autonomy. The Sino-British Joint Declaration in 1984 guaranteed Hong Kong’s autonomy until 2047 under “one country, two systems.” Recent actions, including the 2020 national security law, have raised concerns about eroding freedoms. The UK condemned the law, offering British citizenship through the British national (overseas) visa scheme for eligible Hong Kong residents. The UK government publishes regular reports expressing non-compliance with the Joint Declaration.

The British parliament has made inquiries into Britain-China relations recently.

House of Lords Inquiry:

In February 2021, the House of Lords initiated an inquiry into the UK’s relations with China. The resulting report, “The UK and China’s security and trade relationship: A strategic void,” emphasized the complex nature of the UK-China relationship and urged a clear strategy. The government responded in November 2021, referencing the March 2021 integrated review and highlighting actions taken in response to issues like Hong Kong and human rights abuses. However, it emphasized avoiding strategic dependency on China. The report was debated in the House of Lords on 20 October 2022.

House of Commons Inquiry:

In November 2022, the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee conducted an inquiry into the 2021 integrated review. They urged clearer articulation of the UK’s China-related security interests, proposing a shift from “systematic competitor” to “threat” pending meaningful policy changes. The government partially agreed in its May 2023 response, expressing growing concern over CCP’s actions but advocated nuanced engagement, affirming the policy in the integrated review refresh.

Intelligence and Security Committee Inquiry:

In May 2023, the Intelligence and Security Committee submitted its China report to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Following protocol, the prime minister assessed potential security harm before presenting the report to Parliament. On 21 June 2023, the committee announced the report would be presented soon, questioning the delay in Sunak’s response.

Tourism and Education:

Despite prevailing negative sentiment, economic ties steer the UK’s approach to China. Economic benefits from trade and revenue from Chinese tourists and students prompt cautiousness in disrupting the status quo. Chinese students form the largest international student group in the UK, with proactive efforts to diversify recruitment by attracting Indian students. The decline in Chinese tourists due to the pandemic raises concerns about a revenue loss, emphasizing the UK’s delicate balance.

Conclusion:

The UK-China relationship has seen a sharp downturn in recent months, departing from a trend of increasing cooperation. The peak of relations during 2015-17 shifted due to concerns about Huawei’s involvement in 5G and Hong Kong’s status quo erosion. Factors like China’s handling of the pandemic’s origins and human rights issues in Xinjiang fuelled this shift. Despite concerns, revenue from Chinese students and tourists is acknowledged. The UK aims for a delicate approach, recognizing the trade and economic interdependence while upholding its principles.

The author is the first deputy mayor of Bath of Asian origin and course director of the University of Bath, UK.

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