Left parties would lose heavily, while Mayawati?s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) may turn out to be the biggest gainer if snap polls are held now. The trend has been revealed in a survey commissioned by The Week magazine.
The Week/C-Voter survey has predicted that the two major coalitions, one led by ruling Congress and the other by Opposition BJP would finish close to each other with around 172-192 seats and 178-198 seats respectively, but with advantage to ruling UPA as the BSP, which is set to substantially gain by doubling its number, would not side with the BJP. The Third Front would end up notching 44-54 seats, it added.
In the current Lok Sabha, the Left Front, with its all-time best of 59 seats, has been able to virtually blackmail the government, with CPI(M) alone having 43 members in the lower House.
But in case of a fresh polls now, the survey predicts that the Left Front?s tally might drop to 38-48 seats.
The BSP, which recently swept the Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, might secure 44-55 seats, the survey claimed. The party?s present strength in the House stands at 18 seats.
The survey, hence, surmises that in the event of midterm elections, Congress may again be able to form the government at the Centre with support from Mayawati and a few smaller parties as well as independents, whose numbers may reach to 26-36 seats.
The Left parties while asking the Government not to make operational the Indo-US nuclear deal have made it known to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the Congress party that they were not keen to rock the UPA boat. It is also felt that the Left can at no stage give the impression of covertly aiding the BJP, especially at a time when they were drawing big support from the Muslims.30% of the voters polled were of the opinion that the Congress should listen to the Left parties and scrap the deal, while 47% felt that Congress should not listen to the Left demands. 23% voters were undecided.