A panel of economists? forecast for inflation according to the wholesale price index for all commodities for July. The Central Statistical Organisation will detail provisional WPI for July on Monday (Aug 16).

* July WPI inflation estimate: Median 10.40%, average 10.42%.

* Month earlier provisional level 10.55%; year ago down 0.54%.

* Weekended Jul 24, WPI primary articles up 14.36% from a year ago.

* July inflation projections range between 9.48% and 11.20%.

* Economists of 17 banks/financial services firms polled by TickerNews.

Background to monthly inflation data

* From Oct 24 week, govt discontinued weekly WPI for all commodities.

* Government updates WPI for all commodities monthly.

* Weekly update of WPI for primary articles, fuel group only.

Economists? comments and July WPI inflation forecasts:

ARUN SINGH,

senior economist, Dun & Bradstreet Information Services

(Forecast: 11.00%)

?The deregulation of fuel prices has aggravated inflationary pressures in the economy. While the direct impact of fuel price rise on overall inflation has already been reflected in the WPI inflation figures for June, it?s second round impact will be visible from July through higher transportation costs and increased prices of several other commodities, both food and non-food.

?Nonetheless, waning statistical base effect, monetary tightening by the RBI and prospects of better agriculture production in anticipation of normal monsoon during this season are expected to ease off inflationary pressures in the economy to certain extent after September. However, the pace of moderation in headline inflation is expected to be slow given the recent hike in fuel prices.?

MADAN SABNAVIS,

chief economist, CARE Ratings

(Forecast: 10.11%)

?Inflation will continue to be driven more by baseline numbers for primary products and strong growth tendencies in manufactured products. Primary prices can actually ease only after October as we are still dealing with supplies of last year?s harvest.

Concern will be (about) an increase in prices of manufactured goods.?

MRIDUL SAGGAR,

chief economist, Kotak Securities

(Forecast: 10.35%)

?We project headline inflation to soften marginally to 10.35% in July from 10.55% in June on the current base (FY1994=100), confirming persistence of high inflation. However, we expect GOI to release new WPI series with a new base (FY2004=100). The number of items in this new series can go up 685 from 435 and with a wider coverage and more up-to-date prices, it can cause an upward bias to the current inflation estimates.?

RITUPARNA BANERJEE,

economist, Axis Bank

(Forecast: 10.30%)

?High non-food prices have resulted in a rise in primary articles? inflation in July even with slowing food inflation. Fuel inflation (will be) high, above 14%, after the retail fuel price hike at Juneend. the manufacturing products index is expected to rise as metals, transport equipments prices have risen.?

RUPA REGE NITSURE,

chief economist, Bank of Baroda

(Forecast: 9.48%)

?My inflation projection for July is 9.48% ? lower partly due to deceleration in food inflation and partly due to high statistical base.?