High turnover swings results in favour of BJP

Written by Mukesh Ranjan | New Delhi, Dec 24 | Updated: Dec 25 2007, 04:55am hrs
Turning conventional political logic on its head, it was the high voter turnout, up to 64% in some regions, that swung the results in favour of the BJP in general and Narendra Modi in particular.

An analysis of the voting trend revealed that in the four regions -Kutch, Saurashtra, North and South Gujarat- where the turn out was heavy (average 60%), Modi and his party did better than the last election in 2002. In Central Gujrat, where the party faced a substantial drubbing at the hands of Congress the turn out was below 60% mark with around 57% only.

Proving the traditional poll analysis that favours the argument that only in case of strong anti-incumbency voters turn out in large number, Modi and his party proved that the four regions in which they did better then the last elections the turn out was high.

Kutch where the party has bagged 5 out of six seats, the turnout was about 62% of which the BJP got 48% leaving 32% and 30% for Congress and the rest respectively.

Similarly, in Saurashtra region, which everyone thought it to prove as Modi's waterloo in Gujarat in the backdrop of dominant Patels and Kolis revolting against him, he improved from his last tally of 37 to 44. Fifty percent of the total votes went in BJP's favour, where women and youth turned out in large number to vote. Congress stood way behind with only 36%.

South Gujarat, though stood similar to Saurashtra in terms of pre-poll equations in the backdrop of large-scale revolt in the party, sent back BJP to state assembly again with better tally with 17 seats.