Maharashtra?s ruling Congress-NCP alliance overcame anti-incumbency and a track-record of poor governance to score a hat-trick of wins in Assembly elections on Thursday, a victory largely attributed to a weak Opposition and the rise of Raj Thackeray?s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS).
In fact, the Democratic Front, as the combine is called, improved on its 2004 performance by winning six seats more this time to reach a total of 145 in the 288-member Assembly, just managing to gain a simple majority on its own and doing away with the need to seek the support of a large number of rebels and independents who had entered the fray.
The success of the alliance, Congress leaders said, showed that its performance in the Lok Sabhs polls this summer ? when it won 17 of the total 48 seats and surprised itself ? was not a flash in the pan and that the party?s fortunes remained on the upswing even if it was being helped by the MNS along the way.
The 2009 results also show that the Congress and the NCP have swapped positions as the leading partner in the alliance. In 2004, the NCP had emerged as the single-largest party, winning 71 of the 288 seats, while the Congress had won 68. A year later, Narayan Rane rebelled in the Sena and was sacked. He joined the Congress and got Sena MLAs to defect and increase the Congress tally to 75 ? making it the single-largest party in the Assembly.
This time around, the Congress has won 82 seats while the NCP has fallen to 63, which workers on both sides felt would give the Congress more fuel to bully Sharad Pawar?s party, a process which began after his supporters projected him as a Prime Ministerial aspirant but his party ended up doing badly in the LS polls.
Jubilant Congress leaders, including chief minister Ashok Chavan, Vilasrao Deshmukh, Sushilkumar Shinde and state Congress chief Manikrao Thakre attributed the party?s success to the ?development work? of the alliance government. But political observers said that the alliance had gained largely due to the weakness of the Shiv Sena and the BJP, both of whom have lost ground over the last five years.
While the Sena has battled major revolts by Narayan Rane in 2005 and of Raj Thackeray in 2006, the BJP has struggled to overcome the loss of Pramod Mahajan in 2006 and internal rivalries. The rise of Raj Thackeray?s MNS made matters worse for the Sena-BJP. For the first time, the Sena faced a formidable competitor on issues monopolised by it such as the welfare of ?the sons of the soil? and Marathi pride.
Formed three years ago, the MNS contested the Lok Sabha polls and badly hurt the prospects of a dozen Sena-BJP nominees. MNS candidates polled one lakh votes in 10 out of 12 Lok Sabha constituencies they contested and facilitated the victory of Congress-NCP candidates.
In the Assembly elections, the MNS contested 143 seats and won 13, all of them in the urban pockets of Mumbai, Nashik and Pune. Consequently, the performance of the Sena as well as the BJP has deteriorated. The Sena has won 44 seats against 63 in 2004, while the BJP has won 46 against 54 in 2004.
In the run-up to the polls, it was speculated that a rag-tag bunch of parties that came together to form the Third Front ? formally called the Republican Left Democratic Front (RLDF) ? would hurt the ruling alliance by eating into its vote bank. However, these parties together barely managed to reach double digits.
The BSP, which has been eyeing Maharashtra and its large Dalit population, failed to open its account this time as well, with voters shunning Mayawati?s party which runs the network of Backward And Minorities Class Employees? Federation (BAMCEF) and also woos north Indian migrants.