After a strong close in the last week and hopes for higher levels, the intermediate uptrend fizzled out on Monday when the Sensex and the Nifty dropped below their respective targets indicating that the intermediate trend is down or at the most sideways. The Sensex will have to move back past 16,237 and the Nifty past 4,916.75 for the intermediate uptrend to be reinstated.
As of now the intermediate uptrend, which had started on the. March 18, fizzled out on the. March 28, lasting for just ten days, which is quite usual in a bear market. The trading volumes remain thin indicating a very low trading activity as the disgruntled bulls continue to remain sellers at all levels. The CNX Mid-Cap index dropped into an intermediate downtrend on Friday as the last intermediate rise lasted for a few more days and ended on the April 2 with a high of 6,388.35.
The bulls continue to shift from the leaders of the past four years to the defensive sectors like the FMCG and healthcare sectors. In the last week, the BSE Capital Goods sector was the largest loser ending 12.69% lower and was followed by the BSE Power sector ending 10.23% lower. The defensive sectors fared better as the BSE Healthcare sector lost 0.24% and the BSE FMCG sectors ended 1.11% lower. The Sensex lost 6.28% and the Nifty ended 5.97% lower.
The Sensex has a support at the 14,500 level and below this level the Sensex will be heading towards the next support of 13,300. The Nifty has support at 4,050 and below this level the Nifty is headed towards 3,850 levels. On the other hand, if these indices are able to build a base at these levels, which is the 61.8% retracement level, than we could see a new bull run after a couple of months once the basebuilding is over. However, if this does not happen, than the bear market will witness a deeper correction and the indices will continue to exhibit descending intermediate tops and bottoms.
The market breadth remained weak throughout the week as the declines scored over advanced. The trading volumes remained thin and were well below the 50 days moving average indicating that the indices and the stocks continued to decline on thin volumes. This means that the investors are willing to part with their investments at lower levels.
As long as the indices exhibit descending intermediate tops and bottoms, the investors must stay sideways and must refrain from picking bottoms on low valuations. In a bear market, it is quite possible to see valuations much lower than normal and unlessunless we start seeing new base-building, there is no point in taking long positions. Till such time trade in the direction of the intermediate trend. We will take a look at the banking sector which is currently leading the bear run.
SBI is in a major downtrend as the stock has been exhibiting descending intermediate tops and bottoms and is trading below its 30 WMA. The stock is currently at the strong support of 1,580-1,600 level and a drop below 1,580 will result in a strong downward momentum and will give position traders an opportunity to look for short positions.
The weekly MACD indicator for the stock is trading well below its trigger line indicating a weak momentum and lower levels in the next intermediate decline. A drop below the support of 1,580-1,600 will result in the stock testing the next support at 1,375.
Axis Bank is one of the private banks which has lead the earlier bull run and is now leading the ear run. The stock has been falling faster than the indices and as a result the relative strength line for the stock has turned weak. The weekly MACD histogram has been making new lows indicating higher weakness in the next intermediate downtrend and any pull back or rallies must be used to look for short positions.
The stock is at the support of 700 and a drop below these levels could take the stock to test the next supports at 660 and 600. Position traders must use the breakdown from this support to add to the short positions. The stock has witnessed a sell-off in the last few weeks with a strong surge in trading volumes indicating that big investors are booking profits in the stock.
ICICI Bank is one of the weakest stocks in the private sectors as the relative strength line for the stock is very weak and will soon test the one year lows. This means that the stock is underperforming the indices. The stock has already broken the strong support at the 800 level and is headed towards the next support of 630.
Investors who are still holding long positions must look to get out in the next rally or if the stock breaks down the recent support of 720 with high volumes. Traders must use rallies to look for short positions.
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