By Col Rajinder Singh (Retd)

“…By moving NATO onto Russia’s front porch, we have scheduled a twenty-first-century confrontation.” ——Pat Buchanan, in his 1999 book, ‘A Republic, Not an Empire’

It has been almost a month and a half since Russia invaded Ukraine but there seems to be no end in sight. A quick collapse of Ukraine, probably as expected by Russia, has not happened. Almost 40 cities have been totally destroyed. Thousands of homes have been damaged. Millions of people have fled as refugees to neighbouring countries. What has Zelensky gained by falling prey to USA/NATO inducement and waging enmity with Russia? It has caused nothing but death and destruction of his people and the country!

Unfortunately, deliberately or otherwise or even unwittingly, he was fighting a “Wrong war, nay a US War”, at peril to his own countrymen. The West/USA has cleverly seduced Ukraine in its “Attrition War” against Russia. However, longer the war sustains itself, it would have serious repercussions not only for Ukraine and Russia but also for the world. It would gravely dent the global economy and the international balance of power. Besides, it would make a paradigm shift in the global “geopolitics”. In the longer run, not only the belligerent nations but also the USA and western world would be the losers. 

A clear picture has emerged as to what made Russia invade Ukraine ? It was undoubtedly clear that, enticed by the USA and NATO , Ukraine antagonised Russia. It is well known that Ukraine hobnobbing with the West / NATO was considered a serious security threat by Russia . It has been warning it to desist from it . Eastward expansion of NATO , like a pistol pointed at the head of Russia , was unacceptable to Vladimir Putin .

However Ukraine felt overconfident of USA / West support , in the event of Russian invasion. Ukraine bought Russian enmity on false promises of physical support, amounting to military intervention by NATO. Unfortunately, it has not come and Ukraine paid heavily for fighting an “outsourced Proxy war“ by USA / NATO.

The USA and EU have been levying harsh economic sanctions on Russia . They do not seem to have deterred Russia . The basic reason is that sanctions have not been thoroughly implemented. Most EU nations are still importing Russian Oil and gas . Even 43% of US oil and gas needs come from Russia. Such half hearted efforts would not deter Putin. In fact Russia took counter measures to make sure that purchase is done through Russian currency, i.e. Ruble. This is done through nominated Russian banks which convert payment through EURO / USD into Ruble . In the bargain, Ruble has gained and moved many notches above the pre- war scenario.

Ukraine – Russian war is a first step towards declining western domination of the globe . In fact it is not only likely to punch a hole in the global supremacy by the USA / EU but also pave the way for an alternative power centre and alternative systems . USD / Euro are already under threat from Chinese currency as an alternative .

A US scholar makes an observation that the *RUSSIANS* were able to bypass the Visa Card, by using the “Chinese Unionpay”which has operations in 180 countries, Soon, all Asian, and ASEAN countries too, apart from India, South Korea, perhaps even Japan too, since Japan is in the newly formed RECEPT trade organisation, too. *Australia and New Zealand* who are in such a trading grouping too, will have to come up with an alternate paying system .

Expulsion of Russian banks from the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) System has set the ball rolling for nations to look for alternatives . According to Jerome Powell , Chairman of US Federal Reserve Bank, no country will ever trust any organisation system, set up by the US anymore. That means, we could just kick out Russia from the UNO too. This is a very significant observation . This raises doubts on US credibility.

A resolution was moved by the USA/ EU in the UN General Assembly ( UNGA) to expel Russia from the UNHRC (UN Human Rights Commission). Voting took place on 07 April 2022. Interestingly, while 93 voted in favour , 24 voted against and 58 abstained . India headed the list of 58 absentees—- indicating the rise of the third pillar of global geopolitics .

The voting pattern not only showed a “ divided world” but also defiance of USA writ. 82(58+24) nations did not go along with the US proposal. It was clear that the US would no longer be seen as the ‘Global Ring Master’, as had been the case since the collapse of the USSR in 1991. The story of US/ EU hegemony of the world is almost Past its crowning glory. Hereafter, it will be only on the down hill march .

Saudi Arabian crown prince, MBS ( Mohammed Bin Salman) has recently invited Xi Jinping of China to Saudi Arabia. Do not forget Saudi Arabia was the closest US ally in the Middle East th. The invitation to the Chinese strongman is an attempt to distance itself from the USA . It is a clear indication of the rising clout of China in the Arab World. Iran already has good relations with China.

The USA is thus losing ground all over the world . A three weeks back, voting in UNGA, condemning Russia on Ukraine invasion, had shown that 35 nations , India and UAE included, had abstained from it . Earlier, in the UNSC voting for asking Russia to stop aggression, India abstained along with China and UAE.

This was a clear indication of drifting power and transforming Geo- politics . In fact , countries like Iran, North Korea and Afghanistan are staunch opponents of the USA and they are already in the Chinese camp. Russia and China, joining hands with Iran and North Korea, would definitely give rise to a parallel power centre in the world

So, what is the shape of the emerging world ? Well! The decline of the US/ EU would give rise to the TRI- POLAR world . While the USA / EU would be on one side and Russia / China would be on the other side . However, balancing the two power centres , would be India/ Japan, may be ASEAN, as the third pillar of Global power .

The rise of India is imminent . It can no more be denied its rightful place in world geopolitics . The visit by so many foreign dignitaries to New Delhi since 25 March 2022 is a clear indication of its rising stature . It included , Japanese PM, Foreign ministers of China, Russia ,UK, Israeli and Mexico. The visit by Sh Dilip Singh Sood , Deputy NSA of USA, also indicated how important India is to the USA in Global geopolitics . His indirect threats were dismissed by the Indian external Affairs ministry, as was the fate of Joe Biden’s “ Shaky Comment” on India’s stance on sanctions against Russia. The USA had to hastily withdraw the comment . 

Some Indian analysts doubt India’s rise . Some say that with about 4 Trillion USD national debt , India has no chance to appear as the Third Pole . They forget that Indian debt is peanuts as compared to the USA and China , who stand at $ 26 .1 Trillion and $ 15.11 Trillion respectively . As on date , India is the fifth largest world economy. Militarily , it is making rapid strides in self reliance. Indigenous armament is catching world attention, whether it was Tejas Fighter aircraft or the Brahmos Missile system . If the tempo continues , no sooner than India will catch up with China and others . Therefore India is the right candidate for the third pillar of Global geopolitics.

The emerging Tri-Polar world seeks urgent changes in the global institutions, such as UNO , WHO , IMF , World Bank and many other such entities . They must not be hostage to any of the power blocks. During the start of COVID -19 Pandemic, many observers made allegations that WHO was in close influence in China. It had allowed China to get away from investigations on the origin of Corona virus from Wuhan in China. By the time it had allowed investigations , China had destroyed all evidence . Similarly , it is believed that the USA is using financial institutions, such as the IMF , for arm- twisting of smaller nations .

The greater need is to free UNO and its security Council ( SC) from the tyranny of Permanent five members ( P-5). They ought to be divested of their “veto Power”, in order to make it an impartial entity . Therefore urgent reforms are needed to make it more effective . In so doing, following structural and functional changes need to be made to suit the Tri- Polar world :—

  • Its HQ ought to be shifted out of New York to an independent Island, which should be the sole territory of this world body.
  • The Security Council must be enlarged to have 50-60 members with no veto powers for any one. Members to be elected by the General Assembly of the world body. Each elected member state should be given a tenure of four years. One third of these members are changed every two years.
  • Security Council decisions are passed by a simple majority. They should be binding on everyone.
  • Decision of the Security Council must be ratified by two third members of the General Assembly, before implementations
  • This world body ought to take control of all world bodies, such as financial, health, law and judiciary.
  • It should have its own security and protection force drawn out from member states. They can be directly recruited.
  • There should be a Governing body of 20 permanent Members (G-20) who will elect General Secretary Cum CEO every four years. This body will only lay guidelines but not interfere in the functioning of the CEO.
  • The name of the organisation will be changed to Harmonised Order of World (HOW). 

These reforms in the UN Charter or their modifications, would make the world body more dynamic to suit the Tri- Polar world . There is a need to checkmate the “Competitive nationalism”, which has been the cause of conflicts and strife with humanity . The emergence of WsMD with deadly lethality , computerised accuracy and enhanced ranges (beyond visual Range) threatens to make human life extinct .

The Ukraine invasion of Russia has shown that emphasis of war has shifted from physical occupation to total annihilation of the enemy . Russia is using its missile and air power to reduce Ukraine cities to rubble. It will take many many years for Ukraine to recover from devastation. Everyday the war prolongs, it adds to six months of reconstruction from the damage and devastation caused in a single day.

Such a destruction affected is more paying for an aggressor than physical capture / occupation of enemy territory . Therefore, a proper balance of power in the world is needed to prevent devastating conflicts, threatening extinction of human life. Revitalisation of global institutes, effective tools of global power balancing and Setting up proper rules of international engagements of nations are essential characteristics of an emerging tripolar world.

(The author is a renowned author and a defence analyst. His bestselling books are on Kashmir- A Different Perspective and The ULFA Insurgency besides being a contribution on two other books. Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited).