By Dr Waiel Awwad
In a notable move, the United States swiftly dispatched its envoy, Daniel Kritenbrink, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, to Vietnam following President Vladimir Putin‘s visit and the signing of partnership agreements between Russia and Vietnam. This visit has stirred discontent within the American administration for several reasons: Firstly, welcoming President Putin represents a breach in the isolation that the West is attempting to impose on Russia. Secondly, these partnerships and agreements bolster Russia’s influence in Vietnam, a critical hub due to its geopolitical location and rapid economic growth, making it a significant target for American companies. The American special envoy stated that the trust between the United States and Vietnam is very high and that their relations have elevated to the level of a strategic partnership. Western countries are striving to diversify their supply chains amid increasing tensions with China. The trade volume between the US and Vietnam has reached US$111 billion, compared to US$3.6 billion between Vietnam and Russia. However, Vietnam relies on Russian companies for oil exploration, weapons supply, and scholarships for tens of thousands of Vietnamese students.
Putin’s Visit to Vietnam: A Strategic Shift in Asia’s Great Power Dynamics
President Putin’s visit to Hanoi followed a historic visit to Pyongyang, amidst global chaos and the intensification of wars, crises, and nuclear threats, which seem closer to reality than political solutions to these orchestrated crises. This visit elicited extensive regional and global reactions, especially after signing a strategic partnership agreement in which Putin pledged military support to North Korea if it faced any aggression, assuring its neighbor Seoul that the agreement is not directed against it. This stance prompted South Korea to reconsider its arms supplies to Ukraine.
In Vietnam, a traditional ally of Russia, Putin’s visit sends a message to the West about the failure of its policy of isolating Russia and revives the legacy inherited from the former Soviet Union, which militarily supported Hanoi against the American invasion. It is noteworthy that Russia remains Vietnam’s largest arms supplier. President Putin’s meeting with Vietnamese leaders, who still uphold communist ideology, reaffirmed Russia’s vital role in the East during the Cold War. The significance of this visit lies in the pivotal role Vietnam can play in rebalancing the region amidst escalating tensions between the United States and China, and the provocations in the South China Sea, especially following heightened maritime skirmishes between China and the Philippines, incited by the Biden administration.
This visit gains special importance due to the potential role Vietnam, with its “flexible bamboo diplomacy,” can play in regional peace and stability. With increasing tensions between the US and China, Vietnam’s balanced approach and strategic positioning make it a crucial player in fostering regional stability.
Despite the world being less secure and closer to accidental or intentional nuclear wars, making our world more dangerous and threatening global security and stability, especially after the annual report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute on June 17, 2024, warned that the project to limit nuclear weapons proliferation is in greater danger and may be nearing an end between the United States and Russia. This could be a primary motivation for President Putin’s statements about Russia reconsidering its nuclear doctrine.
President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Vietnam carries immense significance, especially given the crucial role that Vietnam, practicing what is known as “flexible bamboo diplomacy,” can play. Vietnam is a key geopolitical hub in Southeast Asia, owing to its strategic location and rapid economic growth, which grants it a prominent position among emerging nations in the region.
This visit comes amid escalating tensions between the United States and China. The South China Sea, in particular, has witnessed increasing maritime skirmishes, especially those provoked by the administration of US President Joe Biden. These maneuvers are viewed as attempts to fish in troubled waters, exacerbating tensions and complicating the regional security landscape.
Putin’s visit to Vietnam aims to bolster bilateral relations and enhance strategic cooperation, encompassing military, economic, and political dimensions. As Russia remains Vietnam’s largest arms supplier, it plays a vital role in bolstering the country’s defense capabilities, thereby amplifying its influence and presence in the region.
Moreover, this visit symbolizes the revival of the Soviet legacy that supported Vietnam during the Cold War, highlighting the historical and political dimensions of Russian-Vietnamese relations. In this context, Vietnam is seen as a pivotal player in rebalancing power and achieving regional stability, putting it at the center of international and regional attention during this turbulent period in global relations.
This visit occurs at a sensitive time that demands understanding and cooperation to avoid escalating conflicts and ensure security and stability in Asia and globally. It marks a significant diplomatic moment that warrants close scrutiny and in-depth analysis.
The Russian-Ukrainian war has played a crucial role in redirecting Russia’s political compass towards Asia. Consequently, Russia has been strengthening its ties with Asia’s giants, particularly India and China, as well as its traditional Asian allies. This shift underscores Russia’s strategic pivot towards the East in response to Western pressures and sanctions.
Conclusion
President Putin’s visit to Vietnam is not just a diplomatic engagement but a strategic maneuver in the broader context of global power dynamics. As Russia seeks to counterbalance Western influence and strengthen its foothold in Asia, Vietnam emerges as a critical ally. This visit reinforces the historical bonds between the two nations and opens new avenues for cooperation in an increasingly multipolar world.
Historically, Russian relations with Southeast Asian countries have not seen significant engagement since the collapse of the Soviet Union. During Boris Yeltsin’s presidency, Russia maintained a classical approach to its foreign relations, with Japan being the notable exception. Russia did not partake in the economic rise of Southeast Asia nor engage in regional conflicts.
However, with the transformative changes in the region and the rise of the Asian Tigers competing economically and commercially on a global scale, alongside the ascent of nations like India and China, there has been a rapid shift in military and political alliances. This dynamic prompted Russian President Vladimir Putin, facing Western isolation, to re-establish Russian influence by building robust foundations for traditional relationships with Asian countries as part of a strategy to enhance Russia’s presence.
For Russia, Southeast Asia represents a natural extension, providing an opportunity to distance itself from the West while seeking new markets and maintaining historical ties. This move amplifies Russia’s influence and limits Western expansion in the region, especially following increased U.S. military presence in the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
Putin is leveraging these foundations to realign the cards in Asia, incorporating a new doctrine for the region that emphasizes strength and understanding to promote regional stability and safeguard Russia’s international interests.
This period demands that major and influential countries take decisive steps towards global stability and avoid ongoing conflict scenarios. Russia, China, and India must play constructive roles in these efforts. Reordering priorities is crucial not only to avoid new wars but to find sustainable and fundamental solutions that enhance global peace and stability.
The author is Senior Journalist and Global Affairs Strategist .
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