Managing the West Asian Quagmire is imperative for global peace

By Pavan Chaurasia

West Asia, a region known for its protracted conflicts and sectarian struggles, is on the boil once again. On April 13^th, the Islamic Republic of Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles on Israel. This was in retaliation for an Israeli air strike at the country’s consulate in Damascus, Syria on April 1^st that killed seven Iranians, including top military officials. Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel named “Operation Truthful Promise,” saw it deploying long-range missiles capable of covering around 2,000 km—nearly double the distance needed to reach Israel. It also marked a change in Iran’s strategy as in the past it had very much relied on its proxies like the militant Islamic groups, the Hezbollah and Houthis across West Asia for it.

The region was already on the cusp of a major catastrophe in the form of a war between the state of Israel and Palestinian Islamic militant group ‘Hamas’ over the terrorist attack on Israel by the latter on 7^th October 2023, which killed around 1200 Israelis. In order to free the Israeli citizens who had been taken over as hostages by Hamas, the Israeli army launched the ground offensive in Gaza to ‘wipe out the entire Hamas terrorist network’. Since then, the war has continued and till date thousands of Palestinians have been killed and several rendered as refugees. Despite being pressurised and condemned by several countries; Israel has refused for a ceasefire in Gaza.

The missile attack by Iran has marked a new chapter in the conflict between West Asian states. Almost all of the 300 drones and missiles launched overnight by Iran on Israel were shot down by its anti-missile defence system which has been backed by the U.S. and Britain. Reports of Saudi and Jordanian support in bringing down Iranian missiles have also emerged. By attacking Israel to a limited extent, Iran has managed to strike a balance between retaliating publicly and avoiding provoking further Israeli military action leading to a much wider conflict in the region. It has also sent a message to the world that it would be keen to escalate in the future in its proxy war with Israel. Then on April 19^th, reports emerged of Israel allegedly targeting the Iranian province of Isfahan — the site of significant nuclear facilities through airstrikes. It is interesting to note that both Israel and Iran have played down this apparent Israeli airstrike, signalling that both are ready to prevent their latest eruption of violence from escalating into a full-blown regional war, at least as of now.

It is worth noting that immediately after Iran’s attack, the US ruled out joining Israel in hitting back Iran. President Biden instead sent a clear message to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that since Iran’s attack had been thwarted, Israel has a victory and therefore it must not escalate this any further by responding with military strikes on Iranian soil. The leaders of G7 countries too expressed their support towards Israel and condemned Iran for the attack, but also urged Israel not to retaliate. Analysts argue that Iran’s attack could prove to be an asset for Israel to rally Western backing and strengthen an anti-Iran coalition, if it were to be formed in the future.

Some interesting developments have taken place since Iran’s attack on Israel.

Firstly, the US has prevented the UN Security Council from recognizing the Palestinians as a full UN member state. Twelve members of the council voted in favour of granting the Palestinians full UN member status, while just the UK and Switzerland abstained. It has been argued that the US’s veto is a form of bargain by the US to prevent Israel from taking any direct military action against Iran and thereby escalating the conflict. Secondly, Israel has been pushing hard for sanctions to be imposed on Iran’s missile programme and for Iran’s IRCG (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), an elite branch of the Iranian Armed Forces having significant influence in Iran’s political, economic, and military affairs, to be declared a terrorist organisation.

The West Asian Challenge for India

For India, the cycle of attack and alleged counter-attacks in the region is not good at all. Historically, India has had a cordial relation with the Arab world as well as with Iran. Post-cold war, it has also developed coherent relations with Israel which has grown manifold under PM Modi. In his ten-year rule, India has been successful in maintaining warm relations with the three conflicting blocks in the region- the Sunni Arab world, the Shiite Iran and the Jewish state of Israel. But this fine act of strategic balancing will be put to test more and more with the increase in tensions between Israel and Iran, if Israel chooses to openly retaliate in a big way after this strike and Iran acknowledges the attack. West Asia is not just home to millions of Indian expatriates who send back billions of dollars to their motherland, but also a key aspect for India’s energy security. In case of a strong retaliation, India’s maritime security too would get compromised. Iran’s proxies in the Red Sea, like the Houthis rebels of Yemen, in order to give a message to the world for Israel’s Gaza war, have already caused disruption in the sea trade, thereby harming India’s economic interests. Therefore, India would like the de-escalation of hostility and the situation to get back to normal as early as possible. India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar has already spoken to the FMs of both the countries and has asked for the diplomatic solution to be given a chance for the dispute settlement, instead of a military one.

The world cannot afford yet another war

Whether this attack was a success or not has no certain answer. While Iranians argue that it has demonstrated its capability to strike Israel despite a weak air force, the Israelis point out the interception of almost 99% of the missiles and the cementing of an anti-Iranian coalition in the region in the future, in the form of support it got from the US and Jordanians who helped Israel in shooting down Iranian drones. The Arab world, which has been keenly watching the developments, is afraid of what another regional war could do to an already damaged region due to Israel and Iran’s display of military might. And there will be worldwide effects in addition to regional ones if it happens. A regional conflict between Iran and Israel has the potential to escalate into a global confrontation including not only the Gulf countries but also the US, Russia, and China.

The contemporary geopolitics around this conflict is too important to be ignored. The conflict has come around at a time when the bell for the great American elections has already rung and both democrats and republicans are set to make the US foreign policy an important election agenda, of which West Asia is a critical aspect. Since the war began in October 2023, the US has continued to support Israel in its ground offensive despite a massive criticism of Israel’s action in Gaza from its friends as well as from a large section of the core voters of the Democrats. Therefore, Biden would not like the conflict to turn into a full-blown war where the US would have to be invariably involved. Also, there are chances that Israel may wait for the US presidential election to get over and someone like Trump to take over as the US President before taking any action against Iran as in that case the US would offer better deals for Israel to attack Iran in a big way.