By Dr Pravesh Kumar Gupta
Recently, the five Central Asian leaders visited Jeddah to attend the first Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)-Central Asia summit. This summit results from an ongoing dialogue between the Central Asian Republics (CARs) and Gulf countries at various levels. In October 2021, the GCC and CARs signed memoranda of understanding in a number of areas, including political, economic, and security cooperation. The signing of these MoUs marked a significant step forward in developing relations between the two regions. To enhance the multifaceted cooperation, in August 2022, the first ministerial meeting of the GCC and Central Asian countries was held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The meeting was attended by ministers from the six GCC countries and the five Central Asian countries. The ministers reviewed the progress in implementing the MoUs and discussed further ways to strengthen cooperation between the two regions.
In September 2022, the joint action plan for the strategic dialogue between the GCC and Central Asian countries for 2023-2027 was approved at the first ministerial meeting. The joint action plan outlines several areas where the two regions will cooperate, including politics, the economy, security, culture, and education.
Why is GCC important for Central Asia?
The geostrategic location of Central Asia is crucial as it is sandwiched between two major powers; Russia and China. Traditionally, this region has been called the underbelly of Russia; however, post-Soviet disintegration, China has gradually penetrated Central Asia and become one of the largest economic partners. China is also venturing into the security domain of this region which Russia previously dominated. It is visible that Russian influence in Central Asia has been waning due to multiple factors and China has been the main benefactor of this situation. Central Asian countries are landlocked and are rich in natural resources. Their economies are also relatively new and require two-way trade and investments. Russia has been the biggest economic partner of these countries, followed by China.
China’s foray into Central Asian economies has gradually increased. Central Asian countries welcomed Beijing as a counterbalance to Russian influence in the region. But now China’s influence has been growing, generating concerns among the Central Asian republics. In order to balance the Chinese presence in the region, Central Asian countries have been looking for some options to diversify their foreign relations. These countries wanted India to play a greater role in the region. However, due to a lack of connectivity and negligence, Indian policymakers ignored the Central Asian region for a long time. Although, in recent years, India-Central Asia relations have gained traction, it is still below the potential.
Turkey has also emerged as another important regional player in Central Asia. With its enhanced role in the Armenia-Azerbaijan war and latter’s victory, Baku served as a springboard to Central Asia for Ankara. Turkey-Central Asia trade has also grown and Turkish investment in Central Asia is growing. The popularity of Turkish culture, art, food, and cinema has been growing on the cultural front. However, there are some limitations in this relationship. Turkish economy is not in good shape, therefore, Ankara cannot be seen as a competent economic partner in Central Asia as of now.
The factors mentioned above and limitations and concerns related to various actors already engaged in Central Asia explain why Central Asian countries are interested in expanding their outreach to the Gulf. In the first GCC-Central Asia meeting, the consensus was made to cooperate in trade, economy, climate change, culture etc., but this engagement itself is symbolic. Gulf countries can be the potential economic partners of Central Asia in the region, and GCC can facilitate Central Asian connectivity to the outer world. With the Iran-Saudi Arabia rapprochement, these factors seem too fruitful. Enhanced economic partnership between the CARs and Gulf countries can certainly be useful in balancing the Chinese influence in the region.
This also presents an opportunity for India to elevate its ties with Central Asia. GCC is one of the largest trading partners of New Delhi. India may promote its connectivity initiatives, such as Chabahar and INSTC, among the GCC countries to maximize its full potential. India may also explore Central Asia’s trade and investment opportunities with its Gulf partners. Overall, Central Asia’s expanding outreach to the Gulf has certain geopolitical and geo-economic implications which has the potential to reshape the regional dynamics.
The author is Associate Fellow (Central Asia), Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi.
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