The new Gross Domestic Product (GDP) series with 2022-23 as the base year will be marked for a new element of dynamism in estimating the household sector. It will have the gross value added (GVA) estimates of the large unincorporated sector compiled using industry-wise productivity information, the ministry of statistics and programme implementation (MoSPI) said in a statement on Thursday.
What has come in handy for the government is a more granular collection of data via the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) with corresponding workforce estimates from Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS).
Addressing Accuracy Concerns
The increased directness in the GVA estimates of the informal sector will help address the concerns over the accuracy of indicator-based extrapolation approach for the unincorporated sector followed in the current GDP series (base year 2011-12).
Many economists have pointed out that given the perceived sluggsingess in the informal sector in the immediate years after the pandemic, the extrapolation method might have tended to ove-restimate the national output.
“In view of the availability of annual results from these surveys (ASUSE and PLFS), estimates will be generated annually for the unincorporated sector in the new series,” the MoSPI said.
Harnessing New Data
Activity-wise share of turnover data from Management & Administration Form will be used for segregation of activities in case of multi-activity enterprises in Non-Financial Private Corporations sector. Also, Goods and Service Tax data will be used for corroborating the frame of private corporations and regional allocation of GVA across industries.
In a recent interview to FE, MOSPI Secretary Saurabh Garg said in the case of the agriculture sector, which has a high contribution from the unorganised sector, crop production and price data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare and the state governments are being used. “No extrapolation method is used here in agriculture. For some of the other industries in the unorganised sector, the extrapolation method is used. In the new series, MoSPI is exploring the data from ASUSE which has been conducted annually for the past 3 years,” he had said.
On Thursday, the ministry organised the first Pre-Release Consultative Workshop on the Base Revision of GDP, Consumer Price Index and Index of Industrial Production in Mumbai. The workshop aimed to brief key stakeholders on the proposed revisions ahead of the release of the new series for all these indicators next year.
The MoSPI is working towards strengthening the National Statistical System which is mainly guided by the eight principles namely timeliness, enhanced frequency, granularity, coverage, use of latest technology, optimisation of administrative data, harmonisation of different datasets available and improved dissemination, Garg said.
RBI deputy governor Poonam Gupta underlined the significance of revised GDP, CPI and IIP series for monetary policy and macroeconomic analysis.
Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council chairman Mahendra Dev said in his inaugural address stressed that reliable and up-to-date statistics and improved measurement of the informal sector are vital. He called for integration of digital and administrative data sources.