The government is expected to release Q2 GDP data today on November 28. This is one of the most anticipated number as the GST rate rationalisaion impact is expected to show. The government implemented GST reform on September 22, to boost consumption.
Finance ministry pegs Q2FY26 GDP at 7–7.5%
The finance minister released the Monthly Economic Review data for October on November 27, highlighting that the GST cut has already had a positive impact on PMI numbers. Manufacturing PMI climbed to 59.2 in October, while services activity remained strong with a PMI reading of 58.9. GST collections also grew 9% during April–October.
With regard to growth prospects, the finance ministry report noted that various independent economic assessments place real GDP growth for Q2 FY26 in the range of 7–7.5%.
GDP forecasts: ICICI Global Market sees at 7.5% in Q2FY26
ICICI Bank Global Market expects Indian real GDP to rise 7.5% year-on-year in Q2FY26 and GVA reaching 7.3% year-on-year.
However, the report also noted that while rural consumption, government spending, and the industrial and services sectors are driving growth, a widening trade deficit, slower spending by states, and weak tourism sector growth may indicate a deceleration in momentum.
GDP forecasts: IMF pegs FY26 at 6.6%
The International Monetary Fund in its latest release said that India’s economy is estimated to grow at 6.6% in 2025-26 (FY26), noting that the Goods and Services Tax (GST) reforms are likely to help cushion the country from the adverse impact of the 50% tariffs imposed by the US.
Q1 GDP highlights
In the first quarter (April-June), the Indian economy surged ahead with real GDP growth accelerating to 7.8 %, significantly higher than the 6.5 % recorded in Q1FY25. The Gross Value Added (GVA) expanded by 7.6 % in the quarter.
Important to note IIP data for October is also scheduled to be released today at around 4 PM. In the previous month, the IIP for September rose 4.0% year-on-year, led by Manufacturing and Electricity that grew by 4.8% and 3.1% respectively.