By Akshat Khetan

As the world watches with anticipation, former U.S. President Donald Trump’s political resurgence sends ripples across the global stage. For India, this renewed ascent promises both significant opportunities and unique challenges. Trump’s return to power could recalibrate the Indo-U.S. relationship, shaping both countries’ economic, strategic, and diplomatic dynamics. Amidst the unpredictability of his policies, Trump’s potential victory opens up strategic possibilities for India, particularly as New Delhi navigates an increasingly multipolar world where the U.S.-China rivalry continues to escalate.

One of the most prominent aspects of Trump’s past presidency was his direct, sometimes unorthodox approach to foreign policy, which included a pragmatic yet often confrontational stance toward China. During his previous term, Trump was instrumental in accelerating a “decoupling” of the U.S. and Chinese economies, imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, restricting technology transfers, and reshaping global supply chains. For India, this presents an opening: Trump’s victory could see an intensification of these policies, offering India opportunities to strengthen its position as an alternative investment and manufacturing hub. American companies seeking to shift their supply chains away from China may increasingly look to India as a viable destination, spurring potential job creation, capital inflows, and industrial growth.

However, India will need to undertake substantial reforms to truly capitalize on this shift. Trump’s pro-business approach is likely to benefit those economies that can meet U.S. corporate standards in infrastructure, ease of doing business, and regulatory clarity. India, despite recent progress, still grapples with complex labor laws, land acquisition issues, and bureaucratic hurdles that deter foreign investors. Should Trump’s victory materialize, Indian policymakers may find themselves under increased pressure to implement reforms that make India a more attractive alternative to China, thus aligning with Trump’s larger strategy of diversifying global supply chains.

Trump’s “America First” agenda, which defined much of his previous administration, may also impact India-U.S. trade dynamics. The Trump era saw both countries locked in negotiations over tariffs, with the U.S. seeking greater market access in areas such as agriculture, medical devices, and e-commerce. A return to power may likely renew Trump’s calls for a more balanced trade relationship, pushing India to lower trade barriers while granting American companies deeper access to its markets. While such negotiations could be challenging, they also present an opportunity for India to leverage its vast consumer base to secure technology transfers, investment, and trade concessions that align with its own economic priorities.

Energy cooperation, an area that witnessed considerable progress during Trump’s earlier term, could also see renewed momentum. Trump had advocated for enhanced energy trade with India, particularly in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil exports. As India seeks to diversify its energy sources to reduce dependency on the Middle East and other politically volatile regions, Trump’s return could strengthen India’s energy security. Increased imports of American energy would not only help India meet its burgeoning demand but also deepen economic ties with the U.S., contributing to a more balanced trade relationship. Trump’s support for the fossil fuel industry may complement India’s transition to cleaner sources by providing stable energy supplies in the interim as the country builds its renewable capacity.

The strategic dimension of a Trump victory also holds considerable implications for India. Trump’s foreign policy, marked by a tough stance on China and a rethinking of traditional alliances, has made Indo-U.S. relations more strategically significant. Trump’s emphasis on the Indo-Pacific strategy and his administration’s vocal support for India’s leadership role in the region helped shape a new era of cooperation between Washington and New Delhi. Under his leadership, the U.S. actively supported India’s security concerns, especially in countering Chinese influence, as evident in the Quad alliance, which also includes Japan and Australia. Trump’s victory could reinvigorate the Quad, making it a more cohesive and possibly militarized front to counterbalance China’s rising assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region.

For India, the Quad’s revitalization would serve as a critical component of its foreign policy, offering a strategic bulwark against regional threats. A stronger Quad under Trump’s leadership could enable India to counter China’s growing influence across South Asia, the Indian Ocean, and even Africa. Moreover, Trump’s approach to defense partnerships could facilitate more robust arms trade and technology transfers between India and the U.S., boosting India’s defense capabilities. This would resonate well with India’s efforts to modernize its armed forces, making it less reliant on traditional suppliers such as Russia.

Trump’s view of Pakistan—a longtime U.S. ally but one he regarded with suspicion in his previous term—could also benefit India’s security landscape. Trump had taken a firm line against Pakistan, particularly regarding its ties with terror networks. A return to this approach might see a reduction in U.S. aid and strategic engagement with Pakistan, which could limit Islamabad’s maneuverability in its policies toward India. For New Delhi, this would mean less external support for Pakistan, potentially reducing pressure on India’s western front and allowing it to concentrate more resources and diplomatic focus on broader strategic goals.

Yet, India must approach a Trump victory with some caution. Trump’s transactional approach to international relations implies that India would need to bring tangible strategic and economic benefits to the table to sustain U.S. support. Trump is known for his unpredictability and his propensity to make abrupt policy shifts. While India might benefit from his anti-China stance, there is always a risk that U.S. policy could pivot based on Trump’s personal or economic considerations. India must be prepared for potential shifts in U.S. policy that may not always align with its interests, underscoring the need for India to maintain strong diplomatic channels and diversify its strategic partnerships beyond the U.S.

India’s IT sector, which heavily relies on access to U.S. markets, may also face new challenges under Trump. His previous administration had introduced restrictions on H-1B visas, affecting skilled Indian workers in the technology sector. A second Trump term could revive these restrictions, posing risks to Indian tech companies and professionals who contribute significantly to the U.S. economy. Should such policies resurface, India might need to negotiate exemptions or concessions, balancing its diplomatic leverage with domestic economic priorities.

The Trump-Modi personal rapport, which has garnered significant media attention, also plays an essential role in shaping bilateral relations. Both leaders share a nationalist, populist appeal and a similar approach to governance, which could strengthen mutual understanding and ease diplomatic negotiations. However, India must tread carefully in not overly relying on this personal relationship, as the longevity and stability of bilateral relations should ideally rest on institutionalized diplomacy rather than individual personalities. While a strong personal bond can expedite diplomatic efforts, India must continue to build a resilient framework for U.S. relations that transcends leadership changes.

One significant area of mutual interest is the realm of technology, particularly in the domain of cybersecurity and emerging technologies like artificial intelligence (AI). Trump’s focus on technological supremacy aligns with India’s aspirations to become a global leader in AI, digital innovation, and cyber resilience. A strategic partnership in these areas could see India benefit from U.S. expertise, investment, and technology transfers, while the U.S. would gain a reliable partner in safeguarding democratic values in digital governance. With China’s rapid advancements in AI and cyber capabilities, a Trump victory could prompt a stronger Indo-U.S. alliance in technology that prioritizes innovation, digital security, and shared values in the tech sphere.

Lastly, Trump’s approach to global institutions—one marked by skepticism of multilateral organizations and a preference for bilateralism—could impact India’s role in the international order. Trump’s return could see the U.S. further disengage from organizations like the United Nations, the World Health Organization, and the World Trade Organization. For India, this could create both opportunities and challenges. On one hand, India could step up as a more active voice in these organizations, positioning itself as a leader of the Global South. On the other hand, the weakening of multilateralism might complicate India’s ability to address transnational challenges, such as climate change and public health, which require collective action.

In summary, a Trump victory would bring a nuanced mix of opportunities and challenges for India. Strategically, it offers a pathway to deepen Indo-U.S. ties, especially within the Indo-Pacific and through frameworks like the Quad. Economically, India could stand to gain as American companies seek alternatives to China, while energy and technology sectors could benefit from enhanced cooperation. However, India must also be prepared for potential trade disputes, restrictions on skilled labor mobility, and the need for substantial domestic reforms to attract foreign investment. By navigating these dynamics with prudence and proactive diplomacy, India can leverage Trump’s victory to strengthen its own position on the global stage, forging a path toward economic resilience and strategic autonomy in an increasingly polarized world.

(The author is the founder AU Corporate and Legal Advisory Services Limited (AUCL))