By Prashant Dikshit
Annie Jacobsen’s book “Nuclear War: A Scenario” crystalizes the horrors of a nuclear war in her “page-turning thriller” about how, step by tragic step, the world as we know might be destroyed by nuclear weapons. In my view this document should be read as a classic in real terms as it vehemently goes on to remind us that we do not allow the specter of a nuclear holocaust to be deleted from our databases.
The horrific scenario is brought home to us by the latest 2024 SIPRI report that we are living with over 12121 nuclear weapons all over the world among adversaries spread globally. The USA and Russia are estimated to have 1770 and 1710 warheads deployed respectively at all times. And the UK, France and China have 120,280 and 24 warheads on readiness. There are 5684 stored warheads and a military stockpile of 9585 warheads.
To further strengthen this scenario there is a Reuters story which informed us that “, Russia would hold a military exercise that will include practice for the use of tactical nuclear weapons. This is the story as of May 6, 2024.
The military drills will include practice for the preparation and deployment for use of non-strategic nuclear weapons. Missile formations in Russia’s Southern Military District and naval forces will take part.
During the exercise, a set of measures will be carried out to practice the issues of preparation and use of “so called” non-strategic nuclear weapons .This is a misnomer for tactical nuclear weapons . The exercise is seemingly aimed at ensuring Russia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty “in response to provocative statements and threats by certain Western officials against the Russian Federation”, Russia claims. Vladimir Putin’s forces have rehearsed using tactical nuclear weapons at an early stage of conflict with a major world power, according to leaked Russian military files that include training scenarios for an invasion by China as well. Russia views its nuclear arsenal as a cornerstone of its defence policy — and how it trains forces to be able to carry out a nuclear first strike in some battlefield conditions. The exercises “show that the operational threshold for using nuclear weapons is pretty low if the desired result can’t be achieved through conventional means.” Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons, which can be delivered by land or sea-launched missiles or from aircraft, are designed for limited battlefield use in Europe and Asia, as opposed to the larger “strategic” weapons intended to target the US.
Russia has the world’s largest arsenal of nuclear weapons and we are made to believe that a tactical nuclear device has no strategic connotation!!! Although, studies have revealed modern tactical warheads can still release significantly more energy than the weapons dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima in 1945.
Russia also went on to sign a mutual weapons supply treaty with North Korea on 24th June 2024 essentially to augment and replenish its arsenal and essentially its inventory of ballistic missiles adequately capable of delivering of tactical nuclear warheads
As if not to be left behind, in April 2023, the US Strategic Command conducted exercise Global Thunder 2023, which successfully tested and validated the nation’s nuclear command, control, and operational procedures. It was being planned for a year before it was conducted. It prepares “Strategic Command personnel and units to train with allied nations and partner organizations to strengthen integration and enhance the readiness, effectiveness, and safety of America’s strategic deterrence force needed to confront global challenges”.
The NATO allies kept pace and on January 24, 2024 launched their biggest military exercise in decades with 90,000 personnel set to take part in months-long manoeuvres spanning the North Atlantic and Europe. The exercises are taking place mainly on the plains of Poland and Norway, but also in Germany, the Baltic States, Romania, Finland, Slovakia, Greece and Sweden. This exercise “Steadfast Defender”, it was claimed, will test the Alliance’s ability to react and respond to Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine and the threats made by its president, Vladimir Putin, to countries on Europe’s eastern flank.
Thus, we have fully burgeoned the situation for a nuclear confrontation. China did not want to be left behind and has added 90 more warheads to its arsenal and placed them on high alert. The reasons for this enhancement are clearly baffling. But there are views which claim that India’s test of Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRV) on March 11, 2024 on the Agni V may have spurred the Chinese action. Although the Indian Research Establishment may merely be wanting to join the select group of USA, France, Russia, China and the United Kingdom which have this potential. Perhaps India did not want to be left behind!!! Strategic Compulsions!!
We cannot escape a perception that we are thus confronted with an excruciatingly adversarial typical cold war nuclear scenario whilst all arms limitation talks have come to naught between the superpowers. That is the point to note.
The author is an Indian Air Force Veteran and a strategic affairs commentator.
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