By Air Cmde TK Chatterjee(retd)
Wars end in many ways. It may be an outright victory like the defeat of Germany and Japan in WWII or Pakistan in Bangladesh in 1971. It can be a mediated or negotiated settlement like the Korean Armistice in 1953 or the Dayton Accord in the Bosnian War in 1995. It can also be a stalemate or a frozen conflict where active fighting may stop, but the underlying issues remain unresolved, like repeated Indo-Pak conflicts since 1948 and the many Indo-China confrontations since 1962.
It is being claimed by the President-elect of the USA that the Ukrainian war will be stopped within 24 hours of his assuming office, which is two months from now. That will perhaps herald a new category of war-ending methodologies. Ending wars between nations by threatening to choke arms and ammunition supplies to one of them. What more would the adversary of the threatened nation want? A briefoutline of the peace proposal is already doing rounds in the Western media, perhaps leaked intentionally to prepare the world for the upcoming geopolitical realignments under the new regime in the USA. In brief, the frontline of the war will be frozen at its current position, a buffer zone between the opposing forces will be created and supervised by neutral parties, territory held by the Russians will remain with Russia, and Ukraine will remain neutral and not join NATO for at least the next twenty years. All these are in Russia’s favour. In Ukraine’s favour are a rather undefined security guarantee from the West and a promise of continued supply of arms to build up its resources to defend itself from any future Russian onslaught. As I read in The Print, such an arrangement makes Moscow the happiest and Kyiv the saddest capital in the world with the change of guard in the USA.
This security guarantee from the West, a synonym for NATO, is a rather dubious promise for NATO itself needs to survive the next four years of the Trump government, given the threats of the USA withdrawing from NATO. Whether these were mere electoral rhetoric or serious threats remains to be seen, but pity the Ukrainians who fought so valiantly for the last two years and, after losing 31000 of their soldiers and almost a third of their country, to end the war so meekly under such ominous threats. In the absence of the USA, will Europe take it upon itself to keep Ukraine supplied with resources to continue the war? It will take a consensus of 27 countries, each with its own agenda. The American promise of ‘as long as it takes’ has ended, and we have heard enough of “Ukraine cannot lose, and Russia cannot win” from the EU parliament. Now is the time to walk the talk. As yet, we have heard nothing that can reassure the Ukrainians. With the German coalition in the doldrum, the Italian government accused of being pro-Russian, and the French forever occupied with their own internal issues, nothing is expected in the near future either. It is a bad time to be a Ukrainian. One is reminded of Henry Kissinger’s quote – it is dangerous to be America’s enemy, for America’s friends, it is fatal.
That said, it is also a sad story that Ukraine believed in the prospect of being allowed into NATO against the Russian opposition. It was a pipedream that is getting shattered now. A neutral Ukraine, as advised by many after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, would have perhaps not resulted in the Russian invasion in 2022. However, a large portion of the economy of many countries survives on continued conflict in the world. The military-industrial complex of developed nations thrives on conflicts, and their influence on governments shapes policies. Ukraine is possibly a victim of one such machination.
It is not Ukraine alone that has to take a fresh look at its security apparatus. Europe, as a continent, now has to consider its own security without the participation of the USA. A recent article in the Le Monde quotes Charles de Gaul’s famous prophecy – one day USA will leave the old continent. That day has perhaps come. As per figures of 2021, the EU has a total population of 447 million and a combined GDP of USD 16 trillion with 2 million military forces, with France giving the nuclear umbrella. So, as figures go, ensuring the continent’s overall security should not pose an issue, considering Russia as the only potential military adversary. If only the 27 countries could be on the same page.
The Ukrainian episode has a lesson for India. One cannot fight high-intensity wars depending on the charity of other nations. So, ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ is not just a political rhetoric but a crying necessity of our time. India’s defence production in FY 2023-24 touched about $15 billion, out of which 80% was from the defence PSUs and 20% from the private sector. The latter has to increase steadily if India has to keep pace with time. Though on paper, HAL has a production capacity of 24 Tejas aircraft per year with its three production lines, it has never produced so many and, with its work culture, will never be able to in the future too. Moreover, the LCA flies with American engines and hence is vulnerable to American whims and fancies, an example of which the country had witnessed in the case of cryogenic engines for our space programme. Though there is a plan to co-produce the engines in India with GE, with a supposedly full transfer of technology, however the latter has to be seen to actually materialize before it can be believed. I have seen such programmes discussed with European engine manufacturers, and though full TOT is promised, when one delves deep, one finds the most critical ‘hot zone’ technology is craftily withheld. That is perhaps not surprising since no industry likes to create competitors.
The bottom line is that the fighting potential of a nation must never be compromised to fulfill a political manifesto. As some other commentators have already said, Atmanirbhar Bharat is inescapable, but its lack of pace needs to be compensated by other means of procurements. Let us not put too much hope in the American NSA Elect’s flirtatious willingness to “dance cheek to cheek with India” and end up inviting ‘fatality’ by being America’s closest friend.
The author is IAF Veteran. Email: teekaycee@gmail.com / X : @teekaycee
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