The Nifty faced a week of stagnation after enduring its worst week in 2024, as the benchmark index stayed locked within a narrow 500-point range. Despite the bulls’ attempts to gain momentum at higher levels, they struggled to push the market upwards. However, they successfully prevented a significant decline, ensuring that the recent lows were protected on a closing basis.
Reliance Industries To Announce Q2FY25 on Monday October 14
The domestic investor attention is now squarely on the earnings season, which is gaining momentum. All eyes are on Reliance Industries, a key index heavyweight, which is set to report its quarterly results on Monday, October 14.
The stock has been a notable underperformer over the past month, playing a pivotal role in the Nifty’s correction from its record high of 25,467 to below the 25,000 level. Over the last month, Reliance Industries shares have fallen by 7%. Along with the management’s commentary, investors will be keenly watching for any announcements regarding the record date for the company’s highly anticipated bonus issue.
Hyundai IPO to Open on Tuesday
Hyundai Motor India is set to open its Rs 27,870 crore initial public offering (IPO) on Tuesday, October 15. As the country’s second-largest car manufacturer by market share, the company has outlined several key risks in its Red Herring Prospectus (RHP) that investors should consider before participating in the issue.
The IPO will be conducted through an offer for sale (OFS), with 14.2 crore shares being offloaded by Hyundai’s Korean parent company. Notably, Hyundai Motor India will not receive any proceeds from the public offering, as the entire amount raised will go directly to the parent company.
Global Market Outlook
Globally, US markets posted solid gains, with the Dow Jones outperforming on the back of a surprise earnings beat from JPMorgan. Other major indices also ended higher. However, investors were once again let down by the underwhelming stimulus announcements from China’s Finance Minister, failing to lift sentiment.
The S&P 500 and the Dow scored record closing highs on Friday, with the big boosts from financial stocks after banks reported strong quarterly results while the latest inflation data fueled expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in November, reported Reuters. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ended up by 60.89 points or 0.33% at 18,342.94 The S&P 500 ended higher by 34.98 points or 0.61% at 5,815.03, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is closed higher by 409.74 point or 0.97% at 42,863.86.
Key Levels to Watch on Nifty on October 14
Commenting on the Technical outlook of Nifty Jatin Gedia – Technical Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas said Nifty opened marginally in the red and consolidated within a narrow range to close in the red down ~24 points. the Nifty has been consolidating in the range of 25250 – 24900 since the last three trading sessions.
Gedia also added that we expect this consolidation to breakout on the upside and rally towards 25350 – 25500 from short term perspective. A breach below 24800 shall weaken the structure and hence should be kept as a stoploss for the long positions.
Commenting on the same VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today said that we anticipate a bearish outlook in the market in the next few days, and a “sell on the rise” strategy is recommended, ignoring pullback moves in a downtrend. Currently, the Nifty has RSI levels of 41 on daily, 59 on weekly, and 74 on monthly timeframe. Notably, forming a high-wave Doji candlestick pattern on the weekly chart.
“Notably, forming a high-wave Doji candlestick pattern on the weekly chart. On a technical note, Nifty may trade with support levels around 24,820 and 24,675 with resistance at 25,120 and 25,245.” added Ambala.
Whereas Ajit Mishra SVP, Research, Religare Broking said that the market has been facing selling pressure on every rise, though resilience in key heavyweights, particularly in the IT, pharma, and metal sectors, has slowed the downward momentum. We recommend maintaining a cautious stance on the Nifty until it decisively surpasses the 20-day exponential moving average (DEMA), which is currently around the 25,300 level. With opportunities on both sides, traders should prioritize careful stock selection and effective trade management.
Bank Nifty Outlook
“Bank Nifty broke its previous day’s low and was sold off from its day’s high, indicating weakness to continue in the index. The stochastics on the daily chart is closing towards the Over-bought region, which can also become a reason for a fall in the index. The ADX DI+ line has turned downside, indicating a possible fall in the index,” said Praveen Dwarakanath, Vice President at Hedged.in.
Dwarakanath also added that immediate support for the index is at the 50200 level. Options writer’s data showed an increased call writing in weekly expiry above 51000 levels and increased call writing at 51500 levels in monthly expiry, indicating a downside potential in the index.
Whereas on the same Anshul Jain, Head of Research, Lakshmishree Investment & Securities Bank Nifty ended the week forming a hammer pattern in the demand zone, signaling bear exhaustion and a potential momentum shift toward the bulls. This bullish reversal pattern suggests that the index could be poised for a pullback if the rallies sustain above the 51,600 level. Successful consolidation above this mark could drive Bank Nifty higher towards the 52,200 and 52,450 levels.
Jain also added that on the downside key support is identified around the 50,400 mark. A daily close below this level would be bearish, potentially pushing the index down to test the 49,000 level initially. Traders should watch for sustained moves above resistance to confirm bullish momentum, while also being cautious of any breaks below support levels. The coming week will be pivotal for Bank Nifty, as it navigates these critical junctures.
FII, DII Data
Foreign institutional investors (FII) offloaded shares worth Rs 4,162.66 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DII) bought shares worth Rs 3,730.87 crore on October 11, 2024, according to the provisional data available on the NSE.
US Dollar
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of six foreign currencies, traded up by 0.05% at 102.94.
Crude Oil
WTI crude prices are trading at $75.49 down by 0.36%, while Brent crude prices are trading at $78.93 lower by 0.59%, on Sunday evening.
Top Stocks To Watch On October 14
Reliance Industries
According to various media reports, the company’s Board is expected to finalize the record date for its much-anticipated bonus issue during a meeting on October 14, 2024. On the same day, the Board will also review and approve the standalone and consolidated unaudited financial results for the quarter and half-year ended September 30, 2024.
DMART
DMart reported a net profit of Rs 6.59 billion for Q2 FY24, up from Rs 6.23 billion in the same quarter last year. The company’s revenue increased to Rs 144 billion from Rs 126 billion year-on-year (YoY).
EBITDA for the quarter stood at Rs 10.93 billion, compared to Rs 10 billion in the previous year. However, the EBITDA margin contracted to 7.57% from 7.96% YoY, indicating a slight decline in operational efficiency despite the revenue and profit growth.
RIIL
Reliance Industrial Infrastructure reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 31.2 million for Q2 FY24, slightly lower than Rs 31.8 million in the same period last year and Rs 29 million in the previous quarter.
The company’s Q2 revenue stood at Rs 122.4 million, down from Rs 143.6 million year-on-year (YoY) and Rs 124 million quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), reflecting a decline in its top-line performance.
Network18 Media & Investments
The company posted a consolidated net loss of Rs 958 million for Q2 FY24, compared to a loss of Rs 831 million in the same quarter last year. However, the company’s EBITDA loss slightly improved, standing at Rs 1.79 billion versus Rs 1.81 billion year-on-year (YoY).
Hathway Cable & Datacom
The company reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 258 million for Q2 FY24, up from Rs 201 million year-on-year (YoY) and Rs 183.7 million quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). The company’s revenue for the quarter increased to Rs 5.13 billion, compared to Rs 4.84 billion YoY and Rs 5.03 billion QoQ.
EBITDA for the quarter stood at Rs 862.6 million, up from Rs 826.3 million YoY. However, the EBITDA margin slightly narrowed to 16.82% from 17.08% in the same period last year.