The India rupee is expected to depreciate today amid a firm dollar, weaker financial markets. Market sentiments are hurt on fears that rate hike will lead to higher borrowing cost denting global growth prospects. Further, elevated oil prices have prompted concerns on sustained high inflation, lower economic growth. Also, rupee may slip further on capital outflows due to sustained selling by FPIs. The rupee slumped by 34 paise against the US dollar on Monday as rising crude oil prices and a lacklustre trend in domestic equities weighed on investor sentiment. At the interbank foreign exchange market, Rupee opened lower at 76.08 against the greenback, later lost further ground to settle at 76.18, down 34 paise from the previous close.
Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
“Rupee consolidated in a narrow range for the past few sessions and volatility has been low after the Fed and BoE raised rates in their policy meeting. Rupee could extend its fall against the US dollar if global crude oil prices extend its gains. Yesterday, the dollar rose against its major crosses after comments from the Fed Chairman that opened the door for the central bank to take a more aggressive monetary policy path. The dollar gained ground after Powell said the central bank must move “expeditiously” to bring too-high inflation under control, and will, if needed, use bigger-than-usual interest rate hikes to do so. Today, from the US, no major economic data is expected to be released from the US and that could keep the momentum low for the dollar. We expect the USDINR(Spot) to trade with a positive bias and quote in the range of 75.80 and 76.50.”
Anindya Banerjee, VP, Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives at Kotak Securities
“USDINR spot prices closed at 76.12, up 32 paise. Due to rise in oil prices and fall in equity markets, USDINR shot higher. With oil prices sustaining above $100, Rupee could remain under pressure. However, with year-end USD selling from corporates, up move will be slower. We are looking at a broad range of 75.80 and 76.50 on spot.”
Tapish Pandey, Research Analyst, SMC Global Securities
“Dollar rupee is likely to trade on firm note as dollar strengthened in the wake of comments from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that opened the door for the central bank to take a more aggressive monetary policy path. Additionally crude oil is trading higher on signs the European Union may be edging closer to a ban on Russian crude exports likely to make rupee weaker. Dollar rupee is expected to resume its upward rally after taking support near 75.82-75.83 levels and also placed above its all major moving averages indicating strength for pair. USDINR has immediate support placed around 76.00 followed by 75.82 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 76.85 levels sustain above which may lead higher towards 77 marks.”
Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities
“USDINR 29 March futures contract showed strength and started new week on a positive note. On the daily technical chart a pair is trading near its resistance level of 76.30. We observed that a pair recovered from their lows last week and trading nears its resistance level of 76.30. Looking at the technical set-up, if a pair sustain above 76.30 could show further strength towards 76.55-76.70 levels; else can touch its major support level i.e 75.95.”
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