The Indian rupee is expected to appreciate on Friday amid soft dollar and decline in crude oil prices. Meanwhile, persistent FII outflows and weak global market sentiments may hurt the currency. “Market participants fear elevated inflation may push major central banks globally to tighten monetary policy aggressively. In turn, this may prompt foreign investors to pump out liquidity from emerging markets. US$INR (March) is expected to trade in a range of 76.50-76.10,” said ICICI Direct. In the previous session, the local unit settled 4 paise higher against the US dollar despite a muted trend in domestic equities. At the interbank forex market, the rupee opened at 76.37 against the greenback and witnessed an intra-day high of 76.24 and a low of 76.41 before settling at 76.35.
Anindya Banerjee, VP, Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives at Kotak Securities
“USDINR spot closed at 76.30, up 12 paise, due to demand for $ from oil marketing companies. Weakness in stocks and higher oil prices also were responsible for the Rupee weakness. Over the near term, we expect a range in USDINR, between 75.80 and 76.50 on spot, due to higher oil supporting USD and year end exporter selling, capping the advance in the pair.”
Heena Naik- Research Analyst – Currency, Angel One Ltd
“On 24 March 2022, the Indian Rupee made a dull opening at 76.34 levels and thereafter traded in a range between 76.23 to 76.40 levels owing to continuous demand for dollar by importers coupled with suspected IPO related inflows into the system. In the upcoming session, the local unit is likely to continue with its sideways trend as investors refrain from taking any risky bets over to the weekend. However, the possibility of USDINR going south is more on the back of year-end closing dollar selling by IT companies. USDINR is expected to trade in a range between 76.00 to 76.50 levels.”
Sugandha Sachdeva, VP- Commodity & Currency Research, Religare Broking
“The Indian rupee is seen trading sideways as it is reacting to several cues, the major one being the strong rebound in crude oil prices due to declining inventories, supply disruptions due to a storm, and prospects of further sanctions on Russia. Global oil markets are portraying significant tightness and are heavily backwardated. Still, worries about demand destruction due to the rising COVID-19 cases in China are capping gains at higher levels. Besides, the strength in the US dollar amid bets of an aggressive pace of rate hike path during 2022 and lingering uncertainty due to the ongoing geopolitical crisis is also weighing on the domestic currency. However, retreat in domestic equities from day’s low lent some support to the rupee-dollar exchange rate. We anticipate the Indian rupee to trade with a sideways bias in the range of 75.50-76.60 in the coming days.
Gaurang Somaiya , Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
“Rupee continue to trade in a broad range as continuous udpates regarding the geo-political tensions and fed officials is keeping the market participants on the edge. The yen is headed for its worst week in two years, pummelled by, volatility in Dollar, Japan’s rising import costs and low interest rates. Market participants today will keep an eye on the U.K. retail sales and U.S. Inflation expectations data. We expect USDINR (Spot) to trade with a positive bias and quote in range of 75.80 – 76.65.”
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