The Adani Group stocks are in the spotlight once again. After months of scrutiny following the Hindenburg saga, the market regulator SEBI has given the group a clean chit, dismissing allegations of stock manipulation. The regulatory clarity has triggered a rally across Adani counters.
Adding to the good news, brokerages have come up with some big upside predictions for key Adani Group stocks. International brokerage house, Morgan Stanley has not only reiterated its confidence in Adani Power but also called it its “Top Pick” in the utilities space. It has an Overweight rating and a target price of Rs 818. That translates into a nearly 30% upside from Adani Power share price from current levels.
So, why is Morgan Stanley betting big on Adani Power? Here are the five reasons the brokerage highlights.
Morgan Stanley on Adani Power: Coal’s role in India’s energy future
Morgan Stanley believes Adani Power is at the center of one of India’s biggest turnaround stories. The company has seen resolution on regulatory challenges and has added value through acquisitions.
The brokerage added, “APL is a good illustration of turnaround in India’s corporate history, with resolution on most regulatory issues & multiple value-accretive acquisitions.”
Morgan Stanley on Adani Power: Strong growth visibility
The firm also expects strong earnings growth, helped by timely project completions and more long-term contracts (PPAs).
The report highlighted that India’s growing power needs driven by AI adoption, data centres, EVs and metro rail will keep coal in focus. Morgan Stanley noted, “Coal holds the key to India’s energy security, with nuclear being a driver in the next decade.” India is targeting an 80GW expansion in coal capacity by 2032, and Adani Power is expected to play a large role in this build-out.
Morgan Stanley on Adani Power: Scale and market share gains
Adani Power is already the country’s largest private coal-based independent power producer. Morgan Stanley expects it to significantly expand its share of India’s electricity generation over the coming years.
According to the brokerage, “APL is India’s largest independent power producer and second-largest power producer (after NTPC) with 8% share in both coal capacity & generation. We forecast its market share to reach 15% by F32e with a 41.9GW portfolio (2.5x vs F25).”
This aggressive expansion, the report says, will strengthen its position against competitors while giving it operating leverage.
Morgan Stanley on Adani Power: Strong balance sheet and funding plan
Financing large scale expansion can strain power producers, but Morgan Stanley believes Adani Power is relatively well-positioned on this front.
The report highlighted that “APL has seen favourable resolution of most regulatory issues and has a strong balance sheet (FY25 net debt/EBITDA is at 1.5x). We expect 60-65% of its $27 billion capex for a 23.7GW addition to be met through internal accruals.”
Morgan Stanley on Adani Power: Long-term earnings potential
Furthermore, Morgan Stanley is bullish because it expects earnings to grow steadily as capacity ramps up. The report forecasted strong operating profits and sees room for further upside if Adani Power manages to optimize its merchant portfolio.
The brokerage projects, “Post its expansion from 18.15GW in Q1F26 to 41.9GW by FY32, we forecast EBITDA of Rs 67,200 crore by FY33, or a 17% CAGR, FY22-FY33.”