India’s domestic aviation capacity is set to expand further this winter. The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has cleared a 6% year-on-year increase in total weekly departures across Indian carriers under the Winter Schedule (WS) 2025, which takes effect from October 26, 2025, to March 28, 2026.
Jefferies on Aviation sector: What the DGCA data indicates
According to DGCA data, a total of 26,495 weekly flights will operate from 126 airports, compared with 25,007 in last year’s winter schedule and 25,610 under the preceding Summer Schedule (SS). This indocates a 3% increase over the summer period, the report added.
The biggest winner is IndiGo, which continued to outpace the sector with both volume and reliability. The airline will operate 15,014 weekly domestic flights this season, up 10% year-on-year and 6% sequentially from the summer schedule.
In contrast, the Air India Group’s departures have dropped to 7,448 weekly flights, down 2% year-on-year and 3% versus summer 2025, indicating persistent aircraft availability constraints.
Jefferies on IndiGo
In its latest equity research report dated October 26, 2025, Jefferies India reaffirmed a Buy rating on InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (IndiGo) with a price target of Rs 6,925, valuing the stock at 11x June 2027 EV/EBITDA.
The brokerage said IndiGo’s consistent capacity expansion, strong execution, and market dominance position it for sustained earnings growth. “InterGlobe Aviation continues to demonstrate strong execution amid industry-wide supply chain disruptions,” the note said.
Jefferies expects IndiGo’s operational momentum to continue in FY26 and FY27 as supply constraints at competitors linger. “The fleet advantage and disciplined route strategy give IndiGo a clear lead,” the brokerage added.
However, it cautioned that rising aviation turbine fuel (ATF) costs, potential rupee depreciation, and normalization of Boeing’s aircraft supply chain could narrow the competitive gap in later years.
Jefferies on Air India: Capacity challenges
For Air India, the winter schedule confirms what analysts have warned for months that supply-side bottlenecks remain a drag.
The Air India–Vistara network will operate 4,277 weekly departures, down 11% year-on-year, marking the steepest decline among major airlines. The merger integration process, combined with aircraft lease transitions and maintenance cycles, has limited its flexibility to deploy capacity.
Meanwhile, Air India Express, the group’s low-cost arm, posted a 12% rise in weekly departures to 3,171, indicating the induction of new Boeing 737 MAX aircraft. But overall, the Tata Group’s consolidated capacity slipped, pulling its market share down to 28%, from 30% last winter.
Jefferies said the flat schedule “mirrors the continued supply pressures at Air India” and that recovery will likely remain gradual until fresh aircraft deliveries begin from the group’s large-scale order placed in 2023.
Jefferies on Aviation sector: IndiGo widens lead in domestic market
DGCA data show IndiGo’s share of total weekly departures climbing to 57% in Winter 2025, from 55% in the same period last year. This expansion is consistent with its passenger market share, which has hovered between 64-65% through 2025.
Air India Group’s share, in comparison, fell to 28%, while smaller carriers such as SpiceJet, Akasa, and Alliance Air collectively make up the remaining 10–12%.
This dominance has not come suddenly IndiGo’s share has risen steadily from around 52% in 2022 to 57% now, reinforcing its position as India’s clear market leader.
Jefferies on Aviation: Shifting balance among small players; SpiceJet, Akasa in focus
Smaller carriers saw mixed trends. SpiceJet’s proposed weekly departures jumped 21% year-on-year to 1,568, marking its first positive growth in six schedules. The airline’s schedule is also 26% higher than its summer count, signaling a tentative revival as it returns grounded aircraft to service.
Akasa Air, meanwhile, will operate 1,027 weekly flights, up 4% year-on-year but 6% lower than summer 2025. The narrowing network footprint suggests that Akasa is prioritizing yield management over rapid expansion after its aggressive growth in the past two years.
Jefferies observed that the widening gap between SpiceJet and Akasa’s schedules “marks the first reversal in the trend seen since Akasa’s entry,” hinting at a shifting balance among smaller players.
New airports and route adjustments
The DGCA’s Winter 2025 schedule covers 126 airports, up from 122 last year. Newly added airports include Amravati, Hissar, Purnia, and Rupsi, while operations have been suspended from Aligarh, Moradabad, Chitrakoot, Bhavnagar, Ludhiana, Pakyong, and Shravasti.
The regulator said these changes showed, “operational feasibility and demand-based deployment.” The additions align with the government’s UDAN regional connectivity scheme, extending scheduled services to smaller towns.
Occupancy and operational trends steady for IndiGo
IndiGo’s passenger load factors (occupancy rates) remain high, averaging 84–86% through 2025 in line with 2024 levels. DGCA data show stable monthly occupancy despite capacity expansion, indicating robust demand.
In comparison, Air India’s load factors have hovered around 81–83%, constrained by limited fleet deployment and schedule overlaps during the integration phase with Vistara.
Jefferies said, “Demand momentum remains strong in India’s domestic market, supported by rising disposable incomes, business travel recovery, and tourism. IndiGo continues to capitalize on this trend through optimal fleet utilization and fast aircraft turnaround.”
Jefferies on Aviation sector: The valuation play
Jefferies expects IndiGo’s revenue trajectory to remain strong, supported by capacity growth and favorable yields. The brokerage projects EBITDA margins to sustain near 25%, with net profit momentum continuing through FY26–FY27.
At the current target of Rs 6,925, Jefferies values IndiGo at 11x EV/EBITDA (June 2027) a premium justified by its superior cost efficiency, liquidity, and near-monopoly scale in the domestic segment.
The brokerage flagged three near-term variables:
- Crude and ATF price trends, which could affect cost stability.
- Rupee movement, given the high proportion of dollar-denominated leases.
- Competition normalization, especially if Boeing supply improves and Air India receives fresh aircraft on schedule.
Despite these, Jefferies maintained that “IndiGo remains best positioned to capture India’s structural air travel growth.”
The DGCA’s Winter 2025 schedule noted a two-speed recovery in Indian aviation. IndiGo and, to an extent, SpiceJet are increasing capacity aggressively, while Air India’s pace is hampered by operational consolidation and supply shortages.
The brokerage believes that this divergence could persist through 2026, with IndiGo consolidating its domestic dominance. “The market is effectively bifurcating,” an industry analyst noted. “IndiGo owns the domestic front, Air India will try to reclaim the international long-haul segment but the domestic gap is only widening.”