Axis Securities, a key domestic brokerage firm, came out with its top picks for July 2025. The brokerage sees up to 42% upside in one of these. It has chosen Bajaj Finance, SBI, Varun Beverages, HDFC Bank, and Bharti Airtel as the top 5 stocks for July. Here’s a detailed analysis –
Axis Securities’ July picks: Bajaj Finance
The brokerage house picked Bajaj Finance as one of its top picks with a target price of Rs 1,050, implying an upside of 12%.
The company remains well-positioned to deliver strong Asset Under Management (AUM) growth of 25%, a Net Interest Income growth of 26%, and earnings growth of 25%, CAGR over the medium term.
The broker said that the growth will be driven by steady to marginally improving Net Interest Margins (NIMs) as Cost of funds (CoF) to gradually decline by 10-15 basis points over FY26 (assuming 3 rate cuts) and settle at 7.75-7.85% in FY26. One more factor that could add to the growth is operating leverage, driving cost ratio improvement and a positive outlook on asset quality, keeping credit costs under control.
Plus, Rajeev Jain’s continuation with Bajaj Finance in the capacity of Vice Chairman addresses leadership continuity issues and ensures the seamless execution of the strategy.
Axis Securities’ July picks: SBI
Axis Securities picked the State Bank of India as one of its top picks with a target price of Rs 1,025, implying an upside of 25%. According to the brokerage house, SBI remains well-poised to sustain its growth momentum, supported by its comfortable LDR, which provides it with levers to accelerate credit growth.
“We believe SBI could continue to deliver a sustainable RoA of 1% over the medium term, supported by healthy growth visibility across segments, strengthening deposit franchise with focus on CASA deposits, ramping up the fee income profile, and controlled opex and steady provisions.
However, SBI’s credit growth in FY25 was a shade below its guidance of 14-16%, primarily owing to a slightly slower growth in the corporate portfolio and unusually high pre-repayments from certain large PSUs, while retail growth continued to remain healthy.
Axis Securities’ July picks: Varun Beverages
The brokerage picked Varun Beverages with a target price of Rs 650, an upside of a whopping 42% from the current market price.
According to the brokerage house, the only bottler of Pepsi Co. outside the US, is poised to maintain its strong growth trajectory, driven by multiple levers, such as the BevCo acquisition is strengthening its presence in South Africa and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Secondly, the international expansion of its snacks business, especially into Zimbabwe and Zambia.
Also, the company is deepening rural distribution to widen market reach along with capacity enhancement through new greenfield and brownfield facilities, which improve operational efficiency.
Adding to that, Varun Beverages is scaling high-margin brands like Sting, alongside increased focus on value-added dairy, sports drinks, and juices.
“These strategic initiatives are set to support sustained revenue and margin expansion. We expect revenue/EBITDA/PAT to grow at 23%/24%/32% CAGR over CY24-27,” said Axis Securities.
Axis Securities’ July picks: HDFC Bank
The brokerage firm picked HDFC Bank with a target price of Rs 2,250, implying an upside of 12%. HDFC Bank has been consistently performing on its guidance in its endeavour to revert to its pre-merger levels across metrics, and its execution capabilities remain strong.
The private lender is supported by adequate levers to support NIMs, controlled opex growth and improving productivity, ensuring opex ratio moderation, and pristine asset quality, ensuring controlled credit costs, should enable the bank to deliver an improving trend on return ratios.
Axis Securities expects the bank to deliver a Return on Assets (RoA) of 1.8%-1.9%, while a Return on Equity (RoE) between 14-15% over FY26-27.
Axis Securities’ July picks: Bharti Airtel
Axis Securities picked Bharti Airtel due to its continued superior margins, impressive subscriber growth, and increased 4G conversions. The brokerage house has a target price of Rs 2,330, an upside of 16%. Bharti Airtel has the best ARPU (average revenue per user) in the industry, with management expecting further improvement from the current level of Rs 245. This is much higher than Reliance Jio’s Rs 195.
According to Axis Securities, this growth is driven by a more diverse customer base, continued migration from 2G to 4G/5G, and increasing adoption of value-added services.
The company remains on track to reach its ARPU target of Rs 300, supported by rising data consumption and deeper rural penetration. Average data usage per customer remains strong at 25.1 GB/month, further bolstering revenue growth, said Axi Securities.