Modi juggernaut unstoppable! BJP to breach South citadel, emerge bigger and stronger, exit polls show

A decade into his tenure as the Prime Minister of India and having led the Bharatiya Janata Party to two successive victories in the Lok Sabha elections, Narendra Modi’s popularity remains as unflinching as ever, the exit poll results declared on Saturday suggest. Data released by pollsters after the conclusion of all seven phases of the Lok Sabha elections shows the BJP returning to power for a third consecutive term, possibly with its biggest-ever mandate so far.

While the return of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance to power is the unanimous view, agencies differ in the number of seats predicted for the ruling party and the alliance. While most exit polls predicted 350-365 seats for the BJP, three went ahead and projected a bigger verdict breaching the 400 mark.

As per most exit poll projections, the BJP stands to make significant gains in West Bengal and Odisha, make fresh inroads into Kerala and Tamil Nadu, and retain the upper hand in states like Maharashtra and Bihar that saw major political turbulence while maintaining its iron grip in the Hindi heartland states seen as its strongholds.

The India Today-Axis MyIndia exit poll predicts 361-401 seats for the NDA, 131-166 seats for the INDIA bloc and 8-20 seats for Others. The BJP is expected to win 322-340 seats on its own while its allies are projected to win 39-61 seats. On the other hand, the Congress is projected to win 60-76 seats while the INDIA allies could make up for 71-90 seats.

As per the ABP News-CVoter survey, the NDA is likely to win 368 seats and the INDIA bloc 167. TV9 Bharatvarsh projects 342 seats for the NDA and 166 seats for the INDIA bloc. According to the Times Now-ETG survey, the NDA could get 358 and the Opposition bloc, 132 seats. In all, three exit polls have predicted a tally of 400-plus seats for the NDA.

According to News 24-Today’s Chanakya, the NDA looks poised to win 400 seats and the INDIA bloc, 107. India TV-CNX has also given similar estimates and a range of 371-401 while India Today-Axis My India has predicted 361-401 seats for the NDA.

The exit polls indicate a severe blow to the Opposition’s efforts that saw as many as 23 parties join hands with the common goal of defeating the BJP and displacing Modi from power. An average of the projections by agencies shows the BJP gaining 2 per cent and the NDA, 3 per cent, in terms of vote share, a clear sign of the absence of any form of anti-incumbency against the ruling government.

While the NDA stands to make losses in states like Bihar and Maharashtra, it has still managed to maintain an upper hand. While the NDA won 39 of 40 seats in Bihar in the 2019 polls, the alliance won 41 of the 48 seats in Maharashtra. Exit polls show the BJP-JDU combine winning 29-33 seats in Bihar and project a similar tally for the BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP alliance in Maharashtra.

The bigger takeaway for the BJP from the exit polls would be the projected wins in West Bengal and Odisha in the East and Kerala and Tamil Nadu in the South. Most exit polls have given the BJP an upper hand in Bengal and Odisha – two states that have been traditionally dominated by strong regional forces, the Trinamool Congress and Biju Janata Dal, respectively.

According to Axis MyIndia, the NDA is set to win 1-3 seats in Tamil Nadu, 2-3 seats in Kerala, 20-22 seats in Karnataka, 21-23 seats in Andhra Pradesh and 11-12 seats in Telangana. As per ABP-CVoter, the NDA is projected to win 23-25 seats in karnataka, 21-25 seats in Andhra Pradesh, 7-9 seats in Telangana, 1-3 seats in Kerala and 0-2 seats in Tamil Nadu. The BJP has never won a seat in Kerala and drew a blank in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in Tamil Nadu.

The BJP is also expected to make stronger inroads into Mamata Banerjee’s Bengal bastion with exit polls predicting 22 of the 42 seats in the state for the party. The BJP won 18 seats in the previous general elections. The Trinamool Congress could end up winning only 19 Lok Sabha seats in the state. In neighbouring Odisha too, the BJP’s sustained efforts could pay off in Lok Sabha seats as exit polls project 15 of the 22 seats for the party in the state ruled by Naveen Patnaik. The BJD, on the other hand, may manage to hold on to just 6 seats, an aggregate of the exit polls showed.

If the exit poll predictions hold true on June 4 when the election results are declared, Modi would have not only managed to retain the popular mandate for the BJP but also proven that his party can unsettle regional powerhouses in direct fights, and not just the Congress.