Struggling for an effective counter to the Opposition’s demand for a nationwide caste census on the lines of the one completed in Bihar, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said that South India stood to lose 100 Lok Sabha seats if the Congress’ idea of “Jitni Aabadi, Utna Haq” were to be taken into consideration for the exercise of delimitation.

Addressing a rally in poll-bound Telangana where the BJP has been working hard to gain a foothold, the Prime Minister said that delimitation based on population would lead to a drastic fall in representation in Parliament for the South. South Indian states including Telangana (17), Andhra Pradesh (25), Kerala (20), Tamil Nadu (39) and Karnataka (28) collectively account for 129 of the 543 seats in Lok Sabha.

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“The country is now talking about the next delimitation. It will mean that wherever the population is less, the Lok Sabha seats will come down, and rise where the population is high… The southern states have achieved remarkable progress in population control, but will stand to lose heavily if the Congress’s new idea of rights in proportion to population is implemented… South India stands to lose 100 Lok Sabha seats… Will South India accept this? Will South India forgive the Congress? I want to tell Congress leaders not to fool the nation. Make it clear why they are playing this game,” Modi said.

The idea of ‘Jitni Aabadi Utna haq’ was first floated by Congress MP Rahul Gandhi in the run-up to the Karnataka elections and taken up more aggressively during the passage of the Women’s Reservation Act in parliament and the subsequent release of the Bihar caste census by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.

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“This new thought of ‘Jitni Aabadi Utna Haq’ is injustice to southern India,” the Prime Minister said, asking the Congress and the INDIA bloc to clarify if it was “against South India”.

The remarks by the PM came amid indications that the release of the caste census data in Bihar had stumped BJP, which owes much of its success to OBCs backing the Prime Minister in northern states including Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. While the party stands to gain from the delimitation exercise owing to an expected rise in the number of seats in North India, a region it draws most of its support, there is little it stands to lose in the South.

A strategic counter?

Far from a knee-jerk reaction to a factor it cannot afford to ignore, BJP sources point out that the remarks by the Prime Minister are part of a carefully thought strategy aimed at turning the tables against the Opposition on the OBC issue.

While the PM’s reactions in Telangana sought to frame the BJP’s narrative on delimitation in southern states, his response in the heartland — where OBC politics matter the most — has been starkly different.

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Addressing a rally in Chhattisgarh earlier this week, PM Modi sought to project the ‘Jitni Aabadi, Utna Haq’ idea as “anti-Muslim” and an affront to their rights. “I wonder what former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh Ji must be thinking. He used to say the minorities, and Muslims among the minorities, had the first right on the nation’s resources. Now the Congress is saying that the size of population will decide who has the first right,” he said.

“Is the Congress trying to reduce the rights of the minorities? And if the decision is to be made on the basis of population, who has the first right? Who has the largest population? Should rights be according to population? The Congress should make it clear,” the Prime Minister said, asking if Hindus, who form the largest population, come forward and claim all their rights.

Reiterating his earlier assertion that Congress had been “outsourced to those who are hand-in-glove with anti-national forces” who are out to “divide Hindus”, the Prime Minister said that welfare of the poor, who form the biggest population, was his only aim.

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“Congress ke neta kehte hai jitni aabadi utna haq, main kehta hoon agar is desh me sabse badi koi aabadi hai toh woh aabadi gareeb hai… Aur gareeb ka kalyan yahi mera maqsad hai (Congress leaders say rights should be according to the size of the population. I say the largest population in the country is that of the poor. The welfare of the poor is my only goal),” PM Modi said.

BJP sources told Financial Express Online that the PM’s counter to the Opposition’s attempt to turn the heat on the government over the caste census was going to prove extremely effective against the Opposition while also strengthening his own position among his core supporters and even a section of minorities.

“By linking the issue of minority rights to the caste census, the Prime Minister has strategically put Congress in the dock. Moreover, the Brand Modi commands a personal vote bank that pervades caste and religion. This vote bank includes Catholic Christians, tribals, Mahadalits, Pasmanda Muslims etc. By invoking the rights of minorities as well as these smaller sub-castes, the PM has carefully driven a strong message to his core constituency of supporters. And what better place to do it than the core Hindi heartland?” the source said.

When asked if this counterplay would prove sufficient against the bigger impact on OBC voters through Nitish Kumar’s caste census gambit, political analyst Suvrokamal Dutta said that the Prime Minister’s move may expose contradictions within the Opposition camp as well.

“Samajwadi Party already sounds uncomfortable (with Nitish Kumar’s caste census). Moreover, would Mamata Banerjee, or Uddhav Thackeray agree with the Congress and demand a nationwide caste census? The Congress, in my opinion, would find it tough to get several parties who have positioned themselves as semi-urbanised, progressive, and have traditionally seen the Congress as regressive as the BJP, on board on the caste census issue. Would Left parties, who have ideologically been opposed to the caste system itself, and aim to build a casteless society affiliate with the Congress on the issue of caste census? I don’t believe so.”