MP opinion poll 2023: The Bharatiya Janata Party is staring at a shocker in the upcoming Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections, with the Congress gaining an edge over the ruling party, an opinion poll survey has revealed a week before the polls are set to be announced in the state.

According to the Times Now-ETG opinion poll for Madhya Pradesh, the BJP is predicted to win 102-110 seats with a vote share of 42.8 per cent while the Congress, with a marginally higher vote share of 43.8 per cent, is likely to end up with 118-128 seats.

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The findings of the survey, released on Friday, show the BJP losing the slight edge it had over the Congress in the previous round of opinion polls for the state. According to the Times Now-ETG survey in the state in July this year, the BJP was predicted to win 153 seats against 58 seats for the Congress.

The Madhya Pradesh Assembly has 230 members and the magic figure to reach the majority mark is 116. In the elections held in 2018, the Congress emerged as the single largest party with 114 seats while the BJP finished with 109 seats.

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While the vote share difference between the two parties is too close to call either way, a region-wise breakdown of the survey does offer some pointers to the BJP.

In the Malwa Nimar region, for instance, the survey predicted Congress to win 41-45 seats while the BJP was predicted to finish with 20-24 of the 66 Assembly seats.

On the other hand, the Mahakaushal region may see the BJP bag 18-22 of the 38 Assembly seats while the Congress could finish at a lower tally of 16-20 seats. The Gwalior-Chambal region, seen as the fortress of Jyotiraditya Scindia, could pack a shocking verdict for the BJP in the state.

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As per the survey, the BJP was projected to finish with a paltry 4-8 seats of the 38 Assembly constituencies while the Congress may emerge as the winner in 26-30 seats. The outcome in this region could come as a huge embarrassment to Scindia, the leader who led a rebellion against Chief Minister Kamal Nath-led government, resulting in its demise.

In the Madhya Bharat region, the BJP is projected to trump the Congress, winning 22-24 seats against 12-14 seats for its rival. Similarly, in the Vindhya and Bundelkhand regions of the state, the BJP is projected to win 19-21 and 13-15 seats, respectively. The Congress, on the other hand, is likely to finish behind BJP with 8-10 seats and 11-13 seats in the Vindhya and Bundelkhand regions, respectively.

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In the Assembly elections held in 2018, the Congress emerged victorious in the 230-member Assembly, winning 114 seats against 109 for the BJP. The Congress emerged as the single party and went on to form the government with some help from independents and Kamal Nath was appointed as the Chief Minister.

However, 15 months later, Scindia, now a union minister, led a rebellion of 22 Congress leaders who joined the BJP. Kamal Nath stepped down from the post and the government fell, paving the way for the return of the BJP government with Shivraj Singh Chouhan being appointed as the CM for the fourth time.

Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh are due in November-December this year. The term of the current Assembly ends on January 6, 2024. Elections in the state were announced on October 6 and polling was held in a single phase on November 28. Results were declared on December 11.