As the nomination window closes on October 29, Maharashtra gears up for a high-stake election to the 288-member Assembly on November 20. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, who came to power in 2022 after he walked out of Shiv Sena which led to a split in the MVA and joined hands with the BJP, is seeking a renewed mandate. This election pits two major coalitions against each other: the Mahayuti, consisting of the BJP, Shinde-led Shiv Sena faction, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction, and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which includes Congress, Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction, and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena faction.
Eknath Shinde or BJP’s pick
When discussing potential chief ministerial candidates within the Mahayuti, Eknath Shinde stands out. He played a decisive role in the 2022 downfall of the MVA government by leading 40 MLAs to join forces with the BJP-led alliance. Now, he stands as a potential frontrunner. However, election results could reshape this narrative, raising questions over whether Shinde will retain his leadership role if the Mahayuti secures a win, or if the BJP may look to position one of its leaders for the chief minister’s seat.
Author and analyst Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, who penned a biography of Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, “He (Eknath Shinde) broke the Shiv Sena and had the numbers with him to bring along, which is why he formed the government. Either they say that we will decide it after the election if anybody has to be projected before it has to be Shinde, otherwise Shinde is going to sabotage the elections.”
Mukhopadhyay added that, even without a majority, the BJP could still push for its own CM. “They (BJP) are capable of doing anything. The question is how the allies will react, how Shinde will react even if he has left a number of seats to the BJP? Is he going to take it lying down or is he going to switch over to the MVA again?” he added.
Devendra Fadnavis: A threat to Shinde?
Once the undisputed BJP face of Maharashtra, Devendra Fadnavis, now Deputy Chief Minister, pertains to be a key player in Mahayuti. His potential return as chief minister hinges on BJP’s performance. Should the BJP repeat its 2019 tally of 105 seats, it may leverage this to reclaim the chief minister’s office. Rasheed Kidwai, a political analyst, suggests that Fadnavis’s credentials make him a logical choice if the BJP secures a strong position within Mahayuti.
“Devendra Fadnavis, in many ways, many would say, deserves, and if BJP repeats its 2019 performance of getting 105 seats, then, you know, there will be the sort of realignment, and Mr. Fadnavis will be a contender,” said Kidwai.
However, the political reality within the coalition may complicate any BJP-led change, as accommodating Shinde would demand strategic trade-offs. Political strategist Abhimanyu Bharti noted, “If BJP wants to have its own CM, they have to give Shinde something, so either Eknath Shinde can be called to central leadership, I mean given a high rank in Delhi, which I don’t think BJP is willing to do. BJP has not given any of its partners a high rank in the cabinet.”
“Shinde will also want to do state politics more. So BJP will continue with Shinde till Uddhav Thackeray-Shiv Sena is pushed aside. Because again, it’s a division of vote of Shiv Sena, between Uddhav and Eknath,” Bharti told FinancialExpress.com.
Ajit Pawar: The ambitious pragmatist
Ajit Pawar, the two-time Deputy Chief Minister, may be a candidate for the Chief Minister’s post. However, a lackluster performance in the Lok Sabha elections, where his faction of the NCP could claim only one seat, could prove to be a hurdle. However, the upcoming assembly elections could significantly alter his political trajectory if he can garner enough seats to position himself as a kingmaker within the alliance.
According to political analyst Amitabh Tiwari, while we might think that Ajit Pawar is down and out, Pawar is thinking that he will be the kingmaker and he will be the CM. So, his philosophy is that even if he gets 20-25 seats and there is a hung assembly sort of a situation, then he can bargain with MVA also. And merge with NCP-SP. So, NCP-SP becomes the biggest party there. And then he can become the CM.
Uddhav Thackeray: MVA’s unofficial CM face
Uddhav Thackeray, the former Chief Minister and leader of the Shiv Sena (UBT) is emerging as a pivotal figure in the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), an alliance he formed with the Congress and NCP after parting ways with the BJP in 2019. Thackeray held the Chief Minister’s position for approximately two and a half years before his government fell in 2022.
As the Assembly elections approach, many view Thackeray as the unofficial Chief Ministerial candidate for the MVA. Political analyst Rasheed Kidwai highlighted that Thackeray initially aspired to lead the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, which faced opposition from Amit Shah and the BJP. In the context of the MVA, he remains the only unofficial Chief Ministerial candidate, as there are no other contenders from this alliance.
However, the MVA alliance faces challenges related to electoral numbers. Kidwai said, “But the problem in MVA is that the alliance is also about numbers. So, what if, the three parties are fighting for 85 seats each? So, what if a political party gets 60 seats, and the other two get 45 seats each? Then who becomes a Chief Minister?”
“He is a likely candidate, but a lot depends upon Shiv Sena’s performance, a lot depends on Congress performance, and a lot depends upon NCP Sharad Pawar’s performance,” Kidwai asserted.
Beyond the frontrunners: Other potential candidates
The Mahayuti appears to have a clear frontrunner for the Chief Ministerial candidate in Eknath Shinde, with Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar also in the mix. Vinod Tavde, the party’s general secretary, could potentially emerge as a dark horse.
Given that a Maratha currently holds the CM position, the BJP is unlikely to appoint a non-Maratha candidate if it decides the next chief minister should come from its ranks. Should the party opt for a Maratha CM, Tavde could be a strong choice, given his long-standing relationship with the central leadership and the trust he has earned from the high command. On the MVA side, Uddhav Thackeray stands out as a leading candidate, closely followed by Nana Patole or Prithviraj Chavan from Congress.